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Sunday, November 1, 2020

UPDATED: Final Polling?

The UK Express/Democracy Institute Poll came out last night. You can read the final results--including all questions--here. This, of course, is the poll that got both the Brexit and the 2016 US elections very right. This time around they are, naturally, predicting a Trump electoral landslide. They are also predicting that Trump will win the national popular vote by 1%--which, IMO, would be quite important for Trump going forward in a second term. 

That prediction falls in line with the predictions of some other pollsters with good track records who are predicting a heavy Trump turnout. For example, the Trafalgar Group, while suggesting a close contest, hedges by suggesting that there could be a "Trump Wave" of up to 4%. I take it that this is predicated on a number of factors, but especially voter enthusiasm, the difficulty of measuring the "shy Trump vote", and turnout/crossover among traditional Dem demographics. Trafalgar Group further maintains that Trump unquestionably has coattails. (Here's a late poll that suggests as much in a specific instance. UK Express has Trump carrying NH.)

Some of the questions themselves require interpretation. For example:


Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”

Approve = 45%

Disapprove = 49%


That "disapprove" response leaves undocumented exactly what aspect of Trump's handling does the responder disapprove of? Too much lockdown? Too little lockdown? Importantly, that also leaves unanswered: How will that view affect your vote?

More important for the election are these two questions that are closely related to Covid:


Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”

Yes = 73%

No = 27%

Q “Who do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?”

Trump = 61%

Biden = 39%


Beyond all that, the poll shows Trump with comfortable leads in the so called "swing states" and suggests additional pickups beyond 2016.

Here are a handful of questions that suggest to me where Trump may pick up a LOT of votes, and they're grouped together in the poll results. These are issues that, each in their own way, appeal strongly to likely crossover/indie/shy Trump/new Trump voters:


Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?”

Trump = 72%

Biden = 28%

Education

Q “Do you want your local school to re-open soon?”

Yes = 69%

No = 31%

Race

Black Lives Matter

Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”

Black Lives Matter = 23%

All Lives Matter = 77%

Policing / Law & Order

Q “Which one of these people has had the most positive impact on criminal justice policy, especially reforms disproportionately affecting African Americans?”

Donald Trump = 43%

Kim Kardashian = 43%

Joe Biden = 14%


Check it out and see what else you can glean from the results. I found the results very positive for Trump.

 UPDATE: From the Trafalgar Group (speaking with Maria Bartiromo):

Robert Cahaly: What we are seeing is a movement toward Trump with late breakers. We are also seeing folks that had initially given every indication that they were going to support Biden or they were undecided moving toward Trump. And the issue we see moving on is the shutdowns. Even young people we’ve identified who don’t like the president. They like shutdowns even less. Even suburban women who said they have problems with the president, they like their children home and shutdowns even less.

 

I don't follow the campaign advertising. However, I've been saying all along that I think the shutdowns are a huge issue for suburbanites, and that's something that Dems have strongly embraced and even doubled down on. You need to live in a Blue State to get that, perhaps.


56 comments:

  1. Fingers crossed.

    Also have a 30-60 day supply of essentials, just in case...

    6x a standard load-out, also just in case.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. My standard load-out in VN was 120 rds 5.56, 1 belt M-60 ammo, 2 M-26's & a PRC-25(radio). Is current l-o is 180 rds? If so, 1,080 rds.seems a bit heavy to hump... I guess that's what I have a 4 x 4 for.

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    2. Purchase garden seeds and water filtration systems. After ammo.

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    3. @LB&FM

      You carried the pig and the prick? Were you in a 1-man platoon?

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  2. I understand the desire to conduct polling, but the simple reality is that a lot of polling is just used as a weapon of political persuasion (e.g. an attempt to push public opinion in the direction of a particular cause or candidate). And they wouldn't do this unless they held the belief that it works, at least to some extent. And on the receiving end, it's mostly political junkies that digest polls and use the results to support their confirmation bias or cogitate on why they're wrong (fun mental exercise). But all living things are creatures of habit, and most voters made up their minds months ago, if not sooner. Those that favor Trump don't give a hoot about the polls and those that hate Trump will vote Biden even if he drops dead before the election.

    Most Americans can see the obvious. Biden is severely afflicted with dementia and would be a dangerously weak president if elected. This means that Trump voters will vote as an existential imperative and most traditional Democrat voters will stay home. Period.

    Only the MSM will be shocked on Election day.

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    1. I think Trafalgar gets that. They understand the limits of polling but also recognize the enthusiasm gap. Turnout and crossover can be game changers beyond the usual polling even when all corrections for polling bias are made.

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    2. There is also a media blackout on the coming tsunami's down-ballot impact.

      I have argued that an honest reading of the Democrat's 2020 election strategy is that it's actually intentional suicide. The Party is ruled by corrupt septuagenarians running on fumes, and the Young Turks intend to use the upcoming debacle to run them out of DC.

      Then the fun begins. Will the Far Left radicals ascend to power and take the Democrats into a death spiral, or will some new face of moderation emerge? Their bench is thin and almost all of the potential moderates are the wrong demographic.

      Another consequence of a Trump landslide is that McConnell will lose his choke-hold on Trump. No more dictating cabinet and executive branch appointments. Trump will get to run things his way for a change.

      Trump's greatest asset is that all his enemies perpetually underestimate him. And that is more about his enemies being stupid rather than Trump be obscure.

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    3. Interesting thoughts. I was wondering this morning, What happens to the Dems in House if GOP regains control? Who will be minority leader? It'll be ugly for sure.

      Re the Senate and McConnell, I would 1) never underestimate McConnell's smarts, but 2) not overestimate his control of senators. He is certainly far from the only one who has thwarted Trump. I would especially want to keep an eye on the Intel committee. Trump could dictate changes there.

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    4. Even if I didn't favor Trump for anything, I'd still want him to utterly annihilate Biden and his just for the televised leftist emotional devastation and meltdown. The schadenfreud entertainment factor would be off the scale. There wouldn't be enough popcorn.

      Am I wrong fo' dat?

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    5. "Democrat's 2020 election strategy is that it's actually intentional suicide."

      I've read that the Dems knew a year ago that Trump would win 2020, so they put out their most expendable candidates. They haven't really bothered trying, except for the riots and stuff.

      Frank

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    6. A televised leftist emotional devastation and meltdown would be very Just Deserts, for starters, for what they did to Sandmann, Flynn, C. Page, Kav, DJT, ....
      Orgies of Sociopathy, unmatched in the West since Adolf's day.

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    7. Conservatives must go to the polls Tuesday in massive numbers. It's all hands on deck.

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    8. Conservatives must go to the polls in massive numbers Tuesday. Don't think someone else will take care of it. It's all hands on deck to save America from socialism.

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  3. I've been saying for the last few weeks in the last days you will see poles swing. Not because of sudden honest moments but because pollsters are only judged by their last pole.

    You will not see a Trump+8 but you will see a lot of Biden 53 Trump 47 +/-4. That allows maintaining the psychological effects of disparaging but with enough encouragement for "the right side" winning team feel.

    I've been posting florida results for the last two weeks on other sites. The data has been fun to watch. Our last day or early voting is today and our semi finals are as follows.

    As of Sunday 9:20am (11/1)...

    8.7M Florida ballots cast out of 14.4M, now at 60%. Florida Democrats with a 95K vote lead over Republicans (3.41 vs 3.31M). 1.41M mailed ballots to be counted. Looking at in-person voting, 4.11M voters have turned out, with Republicans showing up at the polls in larger numbers (1.88M) vs Democrats (1.32M)

    So what is really fun about these numbers is understanding where dems "expected to be" vs "where they actually are. A few weeks ago they were touting a 70 point expectation in early / mail in voting coming out of Florida. By today's end it will be near .06 points. They've been absolutely crushed.

    Miami dade county has been dominated by republicans.

    956K ballots counted in Miami-Dade early voting (390K Dems vs. 296K Republicans). 190K mailed ballots pending return or processing in Miami-Dade. Republicans turnout at 70% is sizably ahead of Democrats at 62%.

    My personal prediction for Florida for the past several days based on 2016 history and current demographics is Trump will take Florida by 200k or very near it. 2016 was +88k in his favor.

    I base this on the black and latino voters whom vote early, mostly by mail like most of the Dems do. Republicans come out in spades on Nov 4th.

    Wildcards are the NPAs (which including myself is what most of my family is). I'm saying NPAs will be +56 for Trump over 2016.

    Thankful Florida will not be in the news this year beyond report solid number that are quickly produced the evening of Nov 3rd. We count mail in in advance, required ballots to be in by the 3rd and don't leave a lot of room for games.

    National wide... My "dartboard" analysis is 327 for Trump plus the popular vote by 1.5M. I'm a data addict but crunching national numbers is impossible because of the lack of reporting in most states.

    Poles are crap, statistics are like mini skirts, giving a flashy show while hiding all of the important bits... I'm 2020 the "important bits" have been a twig and berry set in EVERY issue!

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    1. Republicans come out in spades on Nov 4th.

      Oh, no !!!

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    2. I suspect devilman is a Biden asset.

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  4. 62% believe Trump will be re-elected. A few weeks ago, polls said 56% of their neighbors would likely be voting for Trump.

    Questions aren't the same, but similar enough that one could conclude that support for Trump is increasing.

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  5. My prediction is still for a narrow Trump win- all the states he took in 2016, minus 1 or 2 of PA, WI, or MI.

    The Biden landslide predictions, I just never believed- if Biden does win, it will be by taking all of the three states I mentioned above for a narrow EC win.

    If there is something that could be described as a landslide, it would be Trump not losing the popular vote by more than 1%, in which case he would likely pick up NH, NV, and NM to go with the 2016 states, giving him 320+ in the electoral college.

    However, my hopes are that Trump wins the popular vote, and decisively. That is what the Democratic Party actually needs most at this point- a humiliating defeat like 1980 through 1988.

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  6. Mark,

    Regarding the 1st question:
    ==============================================================
    Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”

    Approve = 45%

    Disapprove = 49%

    That "disapprove" response leaves undocumented exactly what aspect of Trump's handling does the responder disapprove of? Too much lockdown? Too little lockdown? Importantly, that also leaves unanswered: How will that view affect your vote?
    ==============================================================
    In my household I call my wife (lovingly) #DrFauci'sNeice. For her it's not about the "lockdown" question asked. It's about the inconsistency in messaging from Trump, differences in perspective between "Mr. Science Fauci" and Trump's message. When these 2 different messages collide the Dem's and MSM error on the side of Science as we all know. The feedback comes in Trump downplaying the virus and IMO should have had Dr. Atlas on board earlier.

    Anyways, #DrFauci'sNiece and I cancel each other's votes. Hope he wins.

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    1. Unfortunately, Dr. Fauci isn't exactly following the science either. He has been quite inconsistent and unreliable.

      The 'follow the science' crowd has quite a conundrum when the scientists decide to get political.

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    2. Please allow us to introduce her to Bill Ney The Science Guy! 😁🤣😂

      She will be mind blown!

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    3. next time you hear these crazies talk about "following the science..." ask them how many genders there are....

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    4. Fauci is a bureaucrat. He hasn't "scienced" anything in 30 years except gov't budgeting, which is more hoodoo than science. Hopefully Wednesday morning he and Wray will have a mutual fender bender at the parking lot exit in their hurry to leave after Trump gives them a ten minute deadline to vacate federal property or be forcibly ejected.
      Tom S.

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  7. A gripping analysis from Phillip Stutts, at
    https://medium.com/@PhillipStutts/election-analysis-exclusive-here-is-what-will-happen-on-nov-3-f6426c3d83e7 :

    " do you think a suburban mom in Pennsylvania is going to tell a random polling operator that she is voting for Trump? *No way*. She fears if she explains her vote, she will be “exposed,” or worse, *canceled*....
    ... Considering the “Shy Trump Vote” and the GOTV effort advantage, here is my prediction of the remaining toss up states:
    1. Biden will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Maine’s one toss-up electoral vote.
    2. Trump will win Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nebraska’s one toss-up electoral vote....."

    Any DJT voter who tells a pollster of her choice, which will then be entered into a database accessible (incl. to the DS!) forever, is all-but begging for the guillotine.
    Yesterday DJT made references, to how his backers reacted 4 years ago, when questioned by exit-pollers.
    He referred to two words, which he dared not say in public (the first of which started with "F")!

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    1. I think Wisconsin will be very close, with a possible edge by Trump. Marquette is the best poller of the state being from WI.

      https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

      Pay attention to the number of people who refused to answer who they were voting for. That exceeds the margin Biden "leads by" by one point. Marquette is the only one asking this question in my state to my knowledge. I have to think most if not all the 6% who refuse to answer who they will vote for are Trump voters.

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    2. Another interesting poll, at
      https://www.invisibly.com/research/pulse-on-presidency-oct-15 :
      "... among registered voters, Biden is ahead by only 2 points nationally and is down in key battleground states including Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, and Florida (Figure 1B).
      Our sample includes 27,742 adults nationally, of which 12,849 are registered voters — this is an order of magnitude *more* respondents than *a typical* national poll....
      ... Invisibly Polling uses our Realtime Research™ surveys, which use the *internet* rather than phones to collect responses.
      Our polls show a survey to people browsing the internet in a randomized manner; the survey is embedded in the content people are already reading (Figure 2A).
      Because the poll doesn’t force people to navigate away from their desired content..., Invisibly polls feel much less personal and thus are more likely to capture people's true beliefs. "

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    3. @ Anon "the 6% who refuse to answer who they will vote for"

      !!

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  8. Des Moines Register poll shows Trump now 48%, Biden 41%…

    Meanwhile a Trump rally in a park in Beverly Hills (that’s right!) was invaded and disrupted by 40 BLM thugs and shut down as an unlawful assembly. That doesn’t settle well out here...

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  9. Wow....and lol. Kim Kardashian has a 30% margin over Biden for handling criminal justice reform. Explains a lot for why Trump's numbers for African Americans has been improving. Trump answered the race question quite well, and I bet a lot of late deciders among African Americans took note.

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    1. Her cosmetic surgery came out better than Joe’s, too...

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  10. On James Woods twitter is a tweet that in Arizona there is a car rally for Trump that is 96 miles long.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1322699901747236867

    Seems fantastic but ....

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    1. Grassroots vehicle rallies (cars and trucks) are showing up all across the country - have been for at least several weeks - and they are very long…. 96 miles sounds like a reach, but anything is possible right now… OTH Woods could have meant they were traveling 96 miles? Impressive in any case...

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  11. At a time like this, this kind of stuff does not help the FBI’s image a bit. Joseph Curl at Daily Wire:

    FBI Investigating ‘Trump Train’ That Surrounded Biden Bus
    In Texas, Report Says


    https://www.dailywire.com/news/fbi-investigating-trump-train-that-surrounded-biden-bus-in-texas-report-says

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    1. Perhaps not, but the reality is that if there is an allegation made that a criminal act was directed against a major political party then they have no choice but to look into. Would you care to explain to me what "reportedly investigating" means? What actions have been taken and/or are planned? Would the FBI look any better if they refused to even examine the allegations?

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    2. https://twitter.com/CletaMitchell/status/1323082599531569152

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  12. Mollie Hemingway on Friday:

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/30/poll-biden-drops-8-points-in-3-weeks-in-florida/

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  13. I'm willing to go on record predicting that Trump wins Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, as well as Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, in a Trump landslide.

    I have no crystal ball but I think I'm seeing it clearer than the pollsters.

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    1. I'm willing to jump on your bandwagon. What about NM?

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    2. I have my doubts about Minnesota. There are a lot of stupid liberals there. If they go for Bumblin Biden, maybe start calling it the land of 10,000 mistakes.

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    3. @Mark

      I just don't understand NM well enough...not that I'm any expert on the others :-)

      But, yes, why not NM, and then VA, too.

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    4. NM is a very real possibility. The eastern part is heavily dependent on oil & gas and that sector has become a big part of the states revenue over the last 20 years.
      Tom S.

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  14. If they believe that what went on rises to the level you describe, of course. But the local police departments didn’t seem too concerned. The Texas Tribune was the entity reporting about possible FBI investigation (their article appears to have been the basis for Curl’s). A read of the Texas Tribune article reveals that police along the way (this was a special bus “tour” by minor Dem candidates and Dem officials) had no knowledge that the tour was coming through their jurisdictions, at least one (New Braunfels) had noticed no traffic violations, one PD faulted the Biden campaign for not letting them know of the tour ahead of time so that they could prepare for its travel through their jurisdiction.

    From the Texas Tribune article linked in the Daily Wire article linked above:

    “From videos of the event that have now surfaced on social media, it appears that the vehicle contact actually occurred within San Marcos, Texas, prior to the campaign bus arriving in Kyle,” a statement from the Kyle Police Department read. “All involved parties are being referred to the San Marcos Police Department should they desire to file any type of report with law enforcement.

    A San Marcos spokesperson said police received a call from the Biden campaign bus requesting a police escort but weren’t able to catch up to the bus before it exited the city due to traffic. The police have not spoken to either driver about the collision and said they weren’t able to determine who was at fault.

    According to Hays County Sheriff Gary Cutler, the Biden campaign did not notify his office that it would be passing through the county to allow law enforcement to prepare for any possible confrontations. “The planning of this was questionable,” said Cutler, a Republican running for reelection on Tuesday.


    A video of the minor contact between a truck and a car driven by a “Dem staffer”, showed that the white car moved out of its lane and ran into a pickup in the lane next to it, on its right. The relationship between the vehicles showed that it was the white car that was at fault, so that will probably go nowhere. LE is leaving it up to the two vehicle owners to sort it out.

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    1. The "level" I described was receipt of a complaint. The local FBI will have access to the same videos and can evaluate them. The local police are awaiting receipt of an complaint. It's pretty standard for any LE org to respond to complaints that allege some criminal act. The report you cite is notably short on details--in fact, it amounts to little more than rumor.

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    2. Wendy Davis was on the bus, candidate for Tx-21 I think. That is the ostensible reason for FBI jurisdiction.

      Have seen several of the videos that are out there but can't claim to have seen all. The white car is clearly following closely behind the bus in the center lane of a three lane interstate with the dark p/u in the right lane and abreast the white car. Later it appears the bus changes lanes to the right very slowly, the driver straddles the white stripes for a long time, and the white car appears to try to follow. The dark p/u does not yield and strikes the white car, forcing it back into the center lane. Somebody is definitely going to get a ticket but it will be a fine call as to who should have yielded to whom. My guess is the p/u driver will definitely get points awarded, but both may end up with an appointment with the J.P.
      Tom S.

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    3. "FBI San Antonio is aware of the incident and investigating," FBI spokesperson Michelle Lee told CNN.


      https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/fbi-investigating-biden-bus-trump/index.html

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  15. Monica Showalter had a great piece on Texas humor and Democrat Karens:

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/some_texasstyle_humor_prompts_karenstyle_howls_from_biden_campaign.html

    The Dr. Cervini (PhD) mentioned travelled from California to Texas to “help out” the Dems and ended up driving a vehicle that accompanied the bus. And photographed the Trump Train miscreants. A pretty wild-eyed Karen himself...

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    1. Dr Cervini is a 28 year old who wrote a detailed bio on a man called Kemany who is credited with being the father of gay activism. Young Cervini bills himself as a historian.

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  16. https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/fbi-investigating-trump-train-swarming-of-biden-bus-on-texas-interstate/

    Video of Biden SUV going into lane occupied by Trump Truck. That’s called changing lanes when unsafe per Texas Transportation Code and if there was a crash, it’s the SUV’s fault.

    Crashes in Texas are civil, but can have criminal outcomes. In any crash, parties involved are supposed to pull over as close to scene of crash as they can safely do so. Parties are required to exchange information, including insurance. In the event damage to both vehicles or one vehicle is $1,000 or more a crash report by police should be done.

    If one party refuses to stop and exchange information, that’s a criminal offense that can result in arrest on view or a warrant for arrest issued.

    The truck appears to be tailgating the bus, but the bus and suv are not being impeded on the highway.

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    1. https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1323300069504897029

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    2. "the bus and suv are not being impeded on the highway."

      Tell that to the Fox News headline editor:

      "Trump defends Texas drivers that cut off Biden campaign bus"

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    3. Rough calculation based on the rate of passing strips (about 40 ft per second) indicates the bus has been slowed to approx 30 mph in a 75 zone, so "impeded" is subjective?
      Tom S.

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  17. I have given up on the Democracy Institute poll.

    * When was it conducted?

    * How many people were questioned?

    * How many were Democrats, Republicans, Independents?

    Maybe you can point me to such basic details about the poll. In the meantime, I consider that organization to be unreliable.

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  18. Trump runs the table in all the "Battleground states".

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  19. While I'm cautiously optimistic about 'tomorrow's' election outcome, I'm over-the-top impressed by the Donald Trump who has emerged from the noise and mud pit of hyper-partisan politics into the courageous and determined national leader this country desperately needs.

    Just watch this short video and see if it doesn't give you a chill:

    https://twitter.com/JuliansRum/status/1321670720942952451

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  20. Any bets on the prospect, that tomorrow Sil. Valley pulls strings, to shut down key (GOP) services/ sites?

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    1. Or, antiFa/ BLM incapacitating GOP poll-watchers etc., leaving only Dems (& GOP "rookies") to oversee vote counts?

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