The UK Express/Democracy Institute Poll came out last night. You can read the final results--including all questions--here. This, of course, is the poll that got both the Brexit and the 2016 US elections very right. This time around they are, naturally, predicting a Trump electoral landslide. They are also predicting that Trump will win the national popular vote by 1%--which, IMO, would be quite important for Trump going forward in a second term.
That prediction falls in line with the predictions of some other pollsters with good track records who are predicting a heavy Trump turnout. For example, the Trafalgar Group, while suggesting a close contest, hedges by suggesting that there could be a "Trump Wave" of up to 4%. I take it that this is predicated on a number of factors, but especially voter enthusiasm, the difficulty of measuring the "shy Trump vote", and turnout/crossover among traditional Dem demographics. Trafalgar Group further maintains that Trump unquestionably has coattails. (Here's a late poll that suggests as much in a specific instance. UK Express has Trump carrying NH.)
Some of the questions themselves require interpretation. For example:
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”
Approve = 45%
Disapprove = 49%
That "disapprove" response leaves undocumented exactly what aspect of Trump's handling does the responder disapprove of? Too much lockdown? Too little lockdown? Importantly, that also leaves unanswered: How will that view affect your vote?
More important for the election are these two questions that are closely related to Covid:
Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”
Yes = 73%
No = 27%
Q “Who do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?”
Trump = 61%
Biden = 39%
Beyond all that, the poll shows Trump with comfortable leads in the so called "swing states" and suggests additional pickups beyond 2016.
Here are a handful of questions that suggest to me where Trump may pick up a LOT of votes, and they're grouped together in the poll results. These are issues that, each in their own way, appeal strongly to likely crossover/indie/shy Trump/new Trump voters:
Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?”
Trump = 72%
Biden = 28%
Q “Do you want your local school to re-open soon?”
Yes = 69%
No = 31%
Black Lives Matter
Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”
Black Lives Matter = 23%
All Lives Matter = 77%
Policing / Law & Order
Q “Which one of these people has had the most positive impact on criminal justice policy, especially reforms disproportionately affecting African Americans?”
Donald Trump = 43%
Kim Kardashian = 43%
Joe Biden = 14%
Check it out and see what else you can glean from the results. I found the results very positive for Trump.
UPDATE: From the Trafalgar Group (speaking with Maria Bartiromo):
Robert Cahaly: What we are seeing is a movement toward Trump with late breakers. We are also seeing folks that had initially given every indication that they were going to support Biden or they were undecided moving toward Trump. And the issue we see moving on is the shutdowns. Even young people we’ve identified who don’t like the president. They like shutdowns even less. Even suburban women who said they have problems with the president, they like their children home and shutdowns even less.
I don't follow the campaign advertising. However, I've been saying all along that I think the shutdowns are a huge issue for suburbanites, and that's something that Dems have strongly embraced and even doubled down on. You need to live in a Blue State to get that, perhaps.