Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Discovered: Who And Why--The Shy Trump Voter

Steve Hayward over at Powerline draws attention to fascinating new information on the shy Trump demographic:

The biggest surprise for the mainstream media and the conventional pollsters was that there were a significant number of “shy Trump voters.” Who were these voters? One segment was non-white voters, especially Hispanics but also blacks. Trump received the largest share of the non-white vote in 60 years. Liberals are spinning furiously to explain this away. More on this later on.

The other group of shy Trump voters appear to have been . . . suburban college educated women—the group the mainstream media claimed Trump had permanently alienated. Exit polls from both Public Opinion Strategies and the Edison Poll finds that Trump got half or more of this group. This shift helps explain why Republicans outperformed especially in House races. Even the GOP did not pick up on this.

The source of this new knowledge? Josh Kraushaar, at National Journal. I'll get to Kraushaar, but first I want to excerpt an article that Kraushaar links to in his own article. The article is by a political scientist:

Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London, and author of Whiteshift: Immigration, Populism and the Future of White Majorities

And his article:

Who are the real Shy Trumpers?

Political correctness has left a cadre of white graduates unwilling to reveal their voting intention

I think you'll want to read it all, but if you doubt me here's a sample. Kaufmann begins with some general considerations regarding the problems of polling, how pollsters try to correct for those problems, and why they can't seem to do so. Then he continues:

Looking at this election’s errors — which seems to have been concentrated among white college graduates — I wonder if political correctness lies at the heart of the problem.

Political correctness refers to the policing of speech so that it conforms to cultural taboos, especially the ones concerning race, gender and sexuality. Those who wield taboos gain rhetorical power, encouraging them to stretch the meaning of concepts such as racism to encompass non-racist actions such as voting for Donald Trump.


Actually, by "cultural taboos" I think he's referring to power elite taboos. Or, power elite groupie shared taboos, or something like that. In this sense, the power elite is the group that is able to enforce taboos, i.e., to punish non-conformers. By identifying with the power elite and its views, the power elite groupies are empowered. We'll see more of this when we look at Kraushaar, but without the threat of some form of punishment there will be no fear of the sort that is now well documented.


Across all racial groups, 80% of Americans say “political correctness is a problem in our country”. Only the small “Progressive Activist” 8% of the US population largely thinks it’s not. In practice, the burden of political correctness arguably falls most heavily on university-educated Republican supporters. ...

Republican supporters with degrees tend to work in graduate-dominated environments, where organisations and peers are more likely to enforce norms of political correctness. As a result, it is highly-educated Republican supporters who are most shy about revealing their beliefs at work.


However, we also know that people who internalise social norms often conceal their views in online surveys. ... For instance, in a recent survey of North American academics, I found that just 23% of academics were willing to state they would discriminate against a Trump voter for a job, but the actual share when using a concealed technique called a ‘list experiment’ was 42%. Likewise, a 2010 study found that the share of white Americans willing to endorse zero immigration jumped from 39% to 60% when the question was concealed in a list, rather than asked openly.

There is also a problem of blowback among elite Republicans. Frank Luntz has also said that feedback from Trump-supporting respondents revealed considerable resentment towards pollsters, who were perceived as part of a media establishment out to misrepresent them. ...

Again, this perception is likely to be stronger among Trump-supporting graduates than Trump voters with lower education levels, who are less likely to circulate in politically-correct social environments. Research confirms that highly-educated white liberals have the most skewed perceptions of the actual views of Trump supporters, in part because their social circles tend to be politically homogeneous. The problem is worst among those most attentive to politics.


The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. ...


The most important effects of speech policing are often indirect, shutting down important conversations across value divides that could improve policies and reach greater consensus on hot-button issues such as immigration, education or policing.

OK, now we turn to Kraushaar. Kraushaar isn't so concerned with polling. Rather, he wants to identify just who these people are--Kaufmann has already told us--and WHY they're shy about expressing their views. Kaufmann has explained that, too, but Kraushaar allows them to express it in their own words. See if you can identify with it. Is it possible that the Dems are still cruising for a major bruising? All those angry people can't be happy with having their vote stolen.

Post-election Public Opinion Strategies (R) survey: The biggest shy Trump" constituency: college-educated white women.

64% of those who fit the shy Trump voter (4% of the overall electorate) were women, according to the survey. 



  1. Can you imagine having a Master of Fine Arts degree and being conservative? I suppressed my political views for over 40 years with those in the "contemporary art world" to get along. In 2004 that all changed. We moved to our "little house in the woods" in a conservative state and have been much happier as a result. Not much PC behavior going on around here.

  2. Like LB & FM, I generally suppressed my political views in the work place and amongst neighbors unless I could discern that specific colleagues or neighbors were of similar sympathy. I’m of the demographic discussed in the article as is my niece who faces a much more difficult time in the work place then I ever did. I’m now retired but she is subjected to all manner of vile vitriol against POTUS (for whom she voted twice) and for POTUS supporters by her colleagues who mistakenly presume everyone believes as they do. I don’t think she has one kindred spirit at her place of work. She believes that if she were to express her political views and voting record that she would likely be run out of the office on a rail. We’re currently making arrangements to relocate to our own little house in the woods that is far far away and where she’ll look for a new job in more friendly environs. Shy Trump voters you say? You betcha!

    1. I get it. I feel largely isolated where I live.

    2. From what you've said about your Midwest locale, I'll just say that my situation is similar.
      Being "isolated" doesn't bother me much, tho I must watch my words, when I go out amidst those to whom I'm not close.
      Being able to totally trust my wonderful (moderate liberal) daughter makes such isolation easily bearable, if not trivial.
      I'll bet, that those who lack such fulfilling family situations, have it much harder.
      And, I'll bet, that *very* few Leftists have such fulfilling family situations, and so are driven to seek emotional shelter in the Leftist echo-chamber.
      Most Leftist activists are cat ladies (or men), (recently) empty-nesters, or some such.

    3. Perhaps we need to encourage conservatives living in hopelessly blue states to move to purple battlegrounds where their votes have more effect.

  3. I pray for the day I can get out of Cali and do the same!

    1. You can check out any time you like.

    2. ...but you can never leave.

  4. When I was with NBC Comcast the mentioning of Trump (unless negative) in most conversations was completely taboo. Expressing view points that may just LEAN conservative would silence a room.

    Eventually you find yourself in discussions on business solutions and out of the blue get countered with "what do you know your a republican?"
    It becomes very very personal and hard not to react to.

    The culture in a lot of tech, film and MSM makes no room for beliefs counter to the company propaganda culture.

  5. I am in the bluest of blue professions in a part of a state that is overwhelmingly blue. My views are not a secret at work, but I go out of my way to disguise them in public. Increasingly, I worry about violence from the unhinged left. My job is secure, but I despair for younger conservatives in my profession who realistically have no chance of employment.

  6. "what do you know your a republican?"

    If Housley is right about this week, or if Rudy/ Sidney get it done at SCotUS, some of these smartypantes may soon be singing a rather different tune.
    Meanwhile, the most I would say would be
    "Suit yourself, I've no comment *for now*".

    1. Housley has been sounding very confident, as was Scott Adams.

    2. Would I be right to bet, that Housley is likely to have more Connected sources?

    3. Ah, unfortunately or fortunately depending on how you look at it I was laid off from there in early July. The company bought into the covid hysteria and ran large sections of their business off and let thousands go.

      I say fortunate because I didn't realize how miserable I actually was until not being in the environment.

      My family is fortunate enough to have a small farm, be ultra conservative (not only in politics) and wise enough to have a cushion to ride this out.

      I've been banking on this election to see some of the other pieces of the economy come back and get back to work so yeah... My Trump cheering is personal.

      So I may never get the "ah-ha" moment face to face but I'm warm and fuzzy with sending a text!

  7. College chicks love the D! Corrupt media has been keeping us exasperated and separated

  8. Shy Trump voter as opposed to the dead Biden voter.

    Rob S