UPDATED already to add the second part of Shipwreckedcrew's analysis of PA.
Shipwreckedcrew is optimistic that Trump can pull it out in PA. Read his article with WI and MI in mind, because the same numbers factor in:
Now Down To Just A Few Hundred Thousand Ballots In Pennsylvania -- Pres. Trump's Margin Should Hold
In this article--to be followed by a second one--SWC plays the numbers straight. His point is that, taking the numbers at face value, Trump's lead should hold. The second article will address the real issue: massive fraud. I'll admit, I'm pretty clueless about election law, so maybe SWC can clue us in as to what Giuliani's team of lawyers can realistically do.
UPDATE: SWC has his fraud analysis out. He runs the numbers to show what would be clear indicators of fraud:
What Vote Fraud in Philadelphia Will Look Like Over the Next few Hours If Pres. Trump's Lead Evaporates
Here's his conclusion:
Voter participation in Obama’s best year (2008) was 63.7%.
So 65% voter participation out of Philly would be better than either Clinton or Obama.
70% voter participation would be historically high for Philly.
75% participation in Philly, with Biden getting more than 85% of the votes, is just printing ballots in the names of people who have not voted, running them through the machine, and stealing the election.
When you look at the final figures out of Philadephia, anything involving a total vote of over 825,000, with Biden receiving more than 700,000 votes, is the Democrat political machine in Philly stealing the election by manufacturing votes.
I’m going to see if I can find similar data for Milwaukee and Detroit over the next few hours. Pennsylvania had easily accessible voter registration numbers which made the above analysis quite easy.
Ann Althouse notes that there are some real bright spots to this election. I can't vouch for the accuracy of the commenter's claims, but I wanna believe. I'm not gonna hold my breath waiting for that House majority, but at the least this voter shot across the Dem bow should slow them down.
November 4, 2020
House Democrats stunned that they didn't oust a single GOP incumbent.
Politico reports.[B]y Wednesday morning, party officials and the rank and file were in panic mode as they awaited the results of nearly 20 members of the Democrats’ historic freshman class that handed the party control of the House just two years ago. And already they were saying goodbye to at least a half-dozen of their centrist Democratic colleagues, who were stunned by GOP challengers on Tuesday, including Abby Finkenauer in Iowa and Donna Shalala in Florida....“It’s a dumpster fire,” said one lawmaker, who declined to be named.... Democrats were already engaging in rapid-fire finger-pointing... Several centrist Democrats blamed their more progressive colleagues, saying moderates in Trump-leaning districts couldn’t escape their “socialist” shadow....40 COMMENTS:
It could get worse for Democrats. Right now the GOP has won 185 seats. There are 52 races still to be called, and the GOP leads in 33. 185 + 33 = 218. That's a House majority, folks. Cannot believe no one is talking about this.
If Biden gets total control of the Exec. Branch, and the House Dems only trial the GOP by one vote, that likely leaves Dems only a few bullets (or virus-laden objects) away from regaining control.
ReplyDeleteIf DJT wins in ScotUS by 5-4 or 6-3, the Left will likely try to torch the physical infrastructure, to threaten mass starvation.
As per your scenario on the 4-4 PA case, if Roberts could get at least one of the 3 Dems on the Court to go w/ the majority, some of the Left's string-pullers may instead press lefties to lay low.
Of course, a unam. Court ruling would much help odds of that preservation of peace.
There were 7 voters in Michigan who voted absentee who all were born before 1903, including one person born 1850.
ReplyDeleteRob S
Standard liberal response: More voter suppression by republicans! Now all people born in 1850 are not allowed to vote! Fascists!
DeleteIt's necrophobic for you haters to disenfranchise dead people. Dem's are the inclusive party -- the dead, illegal aliens, aliens that have not yet migrated, the copier in the basement of the local Dem ward-heeler, etc. -- except for the prenatal, they have no rights until certificated by .gov.
DeleteTom S.
My assumption is that Trump has lost. I will be pleasantly surprised if that is not the case. Perhaps AZ and PA will pull through--I could not guess. I am thankful though there was no Dem sweep.
ReplyDeleteAt a minimum, I would expect that there will be ongoing legal challenges over the election. If the DoJ were holding back indictments so as to not influence the election, would they continue to hold back until after disputes are settled? Presumably they would not affect any votes since that has already took place, but it might still be seen as political.
Hard to see how you assume he lost.
DeleteI'm just being realistic. It's a long shot at this point. I never count Trump out, but am not expecting him to pull through.
DeleteSorry to be the pissant at the picnic, but Pennsylvania isn't going to hold. Philadelphia County is deliberately waiting out the rest of the red counties to see what the number is going to be, and when all those counties are reported, then Philadelphia County, in the middle of the night, will deliver the margin to put Biden ahead. Philadelphia County has sat on the same number since this morning while all the rest of the state has maxed out their vote.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Georgia isn't going to hold either. Sorry, the Dems have won this either fairly or unfairly, but they have won it. Lets just go to court for an open, transparent recanvass and recount- that is the only path forward at the moment.
"the Dems have won this either fairly or unfairly"
DeleteDo you actually hear yourself? There is no winning "unfairly" in elections. It's called fraud and as such is inherently invalid.
Yes, but you have to prove it. You can definitely win unfairly- life is full of such things.
DeleteYancey, you are delusional if you think biden will "win" without fraud. Get your head out of where the sun don't shine and think about what you type.
DeleteI agree with Yancey. Too many holes to fill and not enough fingers. Contrary to the aphorism cheaters do win, often.
DeleteAnyone remember how Landslide Lyndon came to the U.S. Senate.
Tom S.
"https://newsmaven.io/americanminute/american-history/how-landslide-lyndon-stole-senate-race-in-1948-gOm8Gg7FHEyR8DlyD3Om6Q"
DeleteIn case anyone would like a refresh. Many 'deja vu' aspects to this.
Tom S.
One of the most evil men in US history.
DeleteYeah, one of the most evil men in US history, even if we ignore the prospect that he had some involvement, in the coverup of aspects of JFK's demise.
DeleteOswald's death before facing trial is widely seen, as the most suspicious "just one of those things" in US history.
Just saying the Dem's been doing this for a long time. Interesting that in the era of cell phones with integrated cameras,social media, etc. they can't come up with anything more sophisticated than 1948 machine politics.
DeleteHow much more difficult for them if we had valid voter id., in person voting, and 100% actual paper ballots.
Tom S.
"75% participation in Philly, with Biden getting more than 85% of the votes, is just printing ballots in the names of people who have not voted, running them through the machine, and stealing the election"
ReplyDeleteI completely agree... Massive fraud!
Massive fraud by our robber barons in tech and the Dems. Where the hell is Bill Barr? Has he been kidnapped?
ReplyDeleteWhat's Barr going to do? Put Wray on the case? LOL
DeleteThe Dem's have been thinking about this, and experimenting, for a long time. They understand the system's limitations in policing itself. This is where the rubber meets the road reference a "virtuous society".
We deplorables think about the mechanisms of life and how to improve them. The Socialists think about the mechanisms of power and how to gain them. Gaining and retaining power has, historically, been the be all end all to them. Like leeches they hold on and suck until their compelled to release, forcibly removed, or the host dies. Socialism/communism, contrary to their PR, has always worked exactly as designed.
Tom S.
Why is everyone in the media claiming the Trump needs to prove fraud; the fraud is plain to see for any person with half a brain.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrats are controlling access to all the ballots, therefore, they have burden of proving Biden had the votes to win.
Aside from arguing fraud, this is the issue the Democrats must be able to prove. They would never get away with telling an honest Judge, "Hey, Biden has the votes to win the election." An honest Judge would say "That is just a claim, but not an established fact; so prove it." The Democrats can't do that.
SWC is IMO on the mark, and in broad agreement with Turley on what may happen:
DeleteThe media and Democrat rush to declare a Biden Presidency inevitable is to get ahead of potentially bad news as evidence builds that announced vote totals may be unreliable. Such issues do not reveal themselves immediately.
Wait for it.
It won't be a question of whether the totals are infected by specific instances of fraud -- the issue will be that the process for coming up with numbers is unreliable. Only hand recounts will cure -- cannot "certify" unreliable numbers produced by flawed electronic means.
"Only hand recounts will cure -- cannot "certify" unreliable numbers...."
ReplyDeleteAwkward sentence, meaning "Only hand recounts will cure what otherwise are unreliable numbers"?
I gather that SCotUS could order recounts (even if margins are outside of what state laws provide for), esp. if DJT can reasonably charge suspicious means in the original count?
ReplyDeleteI claim no expertise. Generally speaking the remedy should be tailored to the specific factual situation. It should also conform to state law. So if the SCOTUS determines that PA violated state law by accepting ballots after the date set by state law, SCOTUS could order that those ballots not be counted. However, if it finds systemic problems--as Turley and SWC discuss--that make the whole process suspect and unreliable, they could go beyond state law and order a full recount or redo. To do that they would probably have to say that PA had violated the US Constitutions guarantee that each state should have a republican form of government. If the elections are held using systemically flawed methods, or perhaps systemically fraudulent methods, that guarantee would be violated. I'm talking off the top of my head.
DeleteThanx, rings quite true.
DeleteIf there ever was a situation, where numerous states
breached the guarantee that each state should have a (authentic) republican form of gov't, this is it!
Re-counting/re-doing elections is all for show. The decision-makers are the legislatures which will select the electors, and given the ongoing real-ballot/fake-ballot chaos, the Republican legislatures can legitimately wash their hands of the mess and just pick the electors they prefer. Their Republican constituents would cheer.
DeleteA quite gripping theory, from reader Minta Marie Morze (on why Dems panicked, with crude cheating means), in New Neo's post today, on "Fire and Ice...":
ReplyDelete"... they knew that Trump was going to win by a large number of votes. So—and here is the major point—they did the cheating they thought necessary BEFORE Election Day. Using mail-in votes, they sent in mega-numbers of dead person, harvested, illegal, etc., votes in what is the easiest way possible to cheat—before Nov 3rd, mail-in voting.
They did the cheating in the swing states that they are used to doing in, states like CA, except that, in CA, they are used to doing it AFTER the vote....
This time, they thought they had it in the bag, with all the early cheating they did. They even made sure that CJ John Roberts let them get away with their backstop state, PA, being allowed to count late ballots.
Everything was cool until, counting the vote that night, they realized with absolute horror, that they had seriously *underestimated Trump’s landslide*, and had actually not cheated enough.
That’s when the *counting stopped*. That’s why they had to cheat so openly. (Even Archbishop Vigano, in a second letter, wrote about the OBVIOUS cheating.)
It has taken them hard work, including desperate votes with *only Biden*, and no down-votes at all, in hundreds of thousands of votes, in each of several states.
That’s why the House and Senate went the way they did. They would normally not have been that sloppy.
Locking people out of watching, blocking windows, other desperate measures, came about because, I believe, Trump DID win by a huge landslide.
Please believe me—they are usually really slick with their cheating. They usually change the rules, like letting illegals get licenses without birth certificates, and at the same time check the box asking for absentee ballots for life, they have ballot harvesting down to an art, and so forth. They thought they had changed enough rules in the necessary states.
They must have been totally *blind-sided*, by the number of Trump votes they were counting on election night. Votes that had the down-votes, to carry the House and Senate situation, that has so maddened the Dem leadership...."