Sunday, January 10, 2021

Things Could Get Complicated

For the time being the Dems and their Big Tech and MSM proxies are riding high, seeking to consolidate their gains from Big Steal and the aftermath of Trumps rally-gone-wrong. To that end, the Big Tech/Media wing is tightening their iron grip over the public forum, while the political wing in Congress is howling for Trump's head on an impeachment platter. Their operative assumption--so common in all human affairs--is that nothing will change for the worse. That's not necessarily so.

Starting from the impeachment angle, it's not a sure thing that another fake impeachment can be pulled off. Aside from the difficulty in framing a charge of "high crimes and misdemeanors" that would withstand public scrutiny as opinion begins to cool off, there's also the question of whether it would be constitutional to try a president who had left office. Legal opinion is divided. In any event, the fallout from this lynch mob mentality would likely overshadow all else in a Biden Inc. administration already struggling to establish a semblance of legitimacy.

The drive of Big Tech to push all non-Prog voice from the public forum is also hitting some speed bumps. Among other things, the rest of the world is watching, appalled, at the blatant censorship being instituted by the combination of an ascendant prog tech sector and a seemingly ascendant prog political sector. Thomas Lifson relates the beginnings of public criticism by foreign leaders: 3 overseas leaders who know how repression and tyranny work speak out on censorship of Trump and election skepticism. As we've already noted--Is It Reasonable To Doubt The Integrity Of US Elections?--many Americans may naively assume that our elections rate high on the integrity scale, but much of the rest of the world knows better. The spectacle of political and Big Tech forces combining to silence all questioning of a patently stolen election is raising serious doubts about America's standing in the world and its trustworthiness. Particularly noteworthy is that the Mexican president, who has much to gain or lose from relations with the incoming Biden Inc. administration, felt compelled to forthrightly criticize the Prog power play:

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador [AMLO, as he is called – TL] condemned social media companies for censoring President Donald Trump this week, saying that he does not “accept” the move as being okay.

“I don’t like anybody being censored or taking away from the the right to post a message on Twitter or Face(book). I don’t agree with that, I don’t accept that,” López Obrador said.

“How can you censor someone: ‘Let’s see, I, as the judge of the Holy Inquisition, will punish you because I think what you’re saying is harmful,’” he continued. “Where is the law, where is the regulation, what are the norms? This is an issue of government, this is not an issue for private companies.”

The details of López Obrador's critique aren't as important as the fact that he felt compelled to make this statement at all. Nothing quite says banana republic like a putative Mexican anti-corruption crusader criticizing an American political party for censoring its opponents.

Beyond these more or less political considerations, however, is the question of what the economy may hold in store for Biden Inc. This morning commenter Cassander pointed out the rocky road ahead in these terms:

... we have not yet seen or paid the full cost of the lockdowns and economic devastation of the pandemic. The Blue Cities are facing economic devastation as tax receipts disappear, restaurants and retail stores close, jobs are lost, rents crash, mortgages head for default, and thousands move out. Sooner than later the Blue Cities will be coming to Congress asking for billions of dollars to rescue them. These funds will ultimately come (if they do) in significant measure from solvent and productive taxpayers in Red States. What is Congress' plan to deal with this enormously divisive issue? Will the Democrat government simply use its majority power raise billions of dollars of taxes on taxpayers in the Red States? 

To which I would add that it's by no means a given that even Dem politicians outside narrowly urban districts will feel able to get on board with such a program.

How bad this is looking was chronicled yesterday at Zerohedge: Another Nail In The Coffin Of Big Cities. Without getting into the details--Cassander tracks them--I'll simply quote the final paragraphs. Having noted the "breath-taking downward spiral" in rents in several major markets, the author concludes:

The financial implications of the emptying of big cities are immense. The list of cities and states that were already lurching towards bankruptcy via their wildly underfunded public sector pensions was already growing. And a federal bailout was already looking imminent before the chaos of 2020.

Now it’s a lock that in 2021 we’ll be faced with the choice of multiple municipal bankruptcies — which would threaten a national second Great Depression — or a multi-trillion-dollar federal bailout that threatens a currency crisis.

The next few weeks of relative peace are looking like a very temporary reprieve.

Some examples from the major metro area I'm most familiar with, Chicago, may help illustrate what lies ahead.

For those not familiar with Chicago, the major commercial center--including high rent residential and luxury shopping areas--can be divided in two: North of the Chicago River and South of the River. South of the river includes the traditional Downtown, the Loop, formerly anchored by a string of major department stores along State Street, and also including the municipal, state, and federal government buildings. It's a shadow of its former self.

North of the river is the "Magnificent Mile"--North Michigan Avenue--anchored by the Tribune Tower at the river and extending north to the Water Tower Place and the John Hancock Building. In between Michigan Avenue was lined with high end retail stores, but the crown jewel in terms of retail was the Water Tower Place with Macy's. This was what remained of the former glory of Chicago's retail center. And this is what the Dems who control the city allowed to be looted and sacked--caravans of luxury vehicles arriving to cart away the contents of the stores several times during the past year. The police stood by, as ordered. The merchants were not amused. Nor, no doubt, were insurance companies amused when the mayor of Chicago urged them to pay out without questioning the circumstances. She literally begged retailers to stay.

Now, Macy's has announced it will be vacating Water Tower Place. That really will be a nail--or more like an entire row of nails--in the coffin that contains Chicago as a viable major city. Chicago already epitomizes major metro maladies: out of control public sector unions, rampant crime, schools shut down. And now, with retailers pulling out, residents in the high rent high rises will not be far behind. The shopping and dining amenities that attracted them in the first place are leaving, and life under threat of the next crime wave holds little attraction for these people.

All these problems are coming to a head--greatly exacerbated by the Covid hoax that crushed public education as well as retail. Chicago will be a bankrupt shell of its former self--it already is--and DC political theater in pursuit of the Orange Man will lose its appeal. The economy is probably headed for a very rocky stretch, which may be made worse by major changes in the oil market. 

We all know that Trump's economy was fueled by shale oil. That is coming to an end, and Tom Luongo is pointing at Russia's strong new position: Russia Turns Attention To US After Winning Oil War With Saudi Arabia. A resurgent Russia will certainly complicate foreign policy for what Luongo terms the "Obama Restoration". However, the forecast upward pressure on oil prices will also complicate the domestic economy, already staggering under the Dems' self inflicted Covid wounds.

All these factors will likely dampen the enthusiasm of all but the most hard core Left portions of the American populace. It will also likely force the Dems--now in full control thanks to the NeverTrumps of the GOPe--to foresake political theater for an attempt at actual governance. And that's something they've never been terribly good at. I look for a short to non-existent honeymoon for the illegitimate Obama Restoration.


  1. I look for a short to non-existent honeymoon for the illegitimate Obama Restoration.

    From your lips to God's ear, but so long as the Democrats can hijack vote counts in swing state big cities with the aid of Dominion et al, it really doesn't matter how many people vote against the Democrat's screwed up policies.


  2. Nothing good is going to come of any of this. It's hard to know what to even say.

  3. Dreadfully Relevant Post on the Economy

    I disagree with some of the analysis at Zerohedge

    My SWAG:

    1. Capital will stay cheap with QE 3 I think it is now. Quantitative Easing that will flood the economy with Dollars.

    2. We are going back to at best the Obama Era growth rates.

    3. Biden’s team will do their best to throttle fracking. This will hurt the economy a lot and increase oil imports.

    4. You have not seen anything yet on Race Stuff! Critical Race Theory, Disparate Impact, police consent decrees, school punishments limited by race - restorative justice, doj prosecutions in any police shootings, etc.

    5. Try to label Trump supporters as Terrorists and throw all the government resources at them, as was done under Obama to the tea party using the irs, etc.

    6. No idea if the Democrats can add dc and Puerto Rico as states.

    7. More expansion of voter rights, as Clinton did with the motor registration act.

    8. China will again be our best buddy and all those economic restrictions Trump did will be lifted.

    8. Russian Reset 2.0

    9. Iran Nuke Deal is back

    10. Paris Accords are back!

    11. Lots of Solandra 2.0

    12. Deficit will soar

    13. Covid will keep Economy idling worldwide for another 12 months.

    14. Blue states will continue lockdown s and destroying their economy for another 6 months.

    15. People will continue to flee blue states, especially higher earners, making the revenue even worse.

    1. 16. Make a few new liberal states.
      17. Stack the supreme court, double the justices.
      18 The green new deal.
      19 The great reset when the green new deal tanks what remains of the economy.

  4. Gas price this afternoon was up 5% after a few months of stable prices.

  5. Replies
    1. Things really COULD get interesting!

    2. Shapiro's Facebook page had it 2 days ago.
      That we're just learning of it now shows, how little traction it has gotten.

    3. Do they disclose who gave the DNC emails to them?

    4. What am I missing? The files are all in code ….?

  6. the shale oil 'fueling' the economy is a lot more complex to analyze. Once the price went down, a lot of frakking sites were capped, and exploration on new sites slowed to a trickle. Opening more land, etc. had a huge effect- we have a lot of conventional reserves. If the price of oil goes up, which it will as soon as the new regulations hit, then the frakking will start again, where it can under new regs. Personally, I think it will be good, in the long run, for PA to see it's economy shuttered, and all the other blues to watch the gas price go up and hit them right in the after-tax pocketbook!

    The big cities controlled by the old Dem machines will finally get smart and vote them out, or enough people will just leave and they'll look more like Detroit. Chicago has a worse problem, in that it seems to be territory of sinaloa and a few other cartels...can't vote them out!

    The big tech guys live in an artificial, neurotic world, and you can't be that out of touch with reality and survive very long. For example, thanks to the very thorough and factual district court opinion in the Microsoft antitrust case, all of history will know Bill Gates achieved success through gangster tactics, even though he was incompetent and inartful with computers! Now he's flogging all the cloud stuff he put Netflix out of business for promoting. And he's all over news promoted as some kind of wise, benevolent philanthropist! The average person sees right through Dorsey and these guys; they're not fooling anyone. Their money was made very quickly and could be lost just as quickly.

    1. And then there’s that paragon of virtue, Mark Zuckerberg, who stole the Facebook source code and concept from his Indian Harvard schoolmate whose original idea it was:

  7. Democrats Cannot Impeach Trump, and You Can’t Impeach Him After Leaving Office: Dershowitz

  8. Mark, I'm very interested in your take on this impeachment madness and 25th Amendment business that's going on today 1/11. I'm sure I'm not alone.

    My growing sense is that if they impeach DJT, they have the votes to get it done. I'm talking about the senate, not just congress. If that happens, it will be the end of the Republican Party.

    Are they too stupid to grasp that?

    1. I'm sure there's a lot of behind the scenes calculating going on. McConnell may be untrustworthy but he's not stupid. My suspicion is that the longer this plays out, the less likely impeachment would go through. And it's not just GOPers would be shy of getting on board. There are Dem senators too who know that that could come back to bite them. Right now there's a lot of theater, and Pelosi's trying to push GOPers into stupidity. Could happen, but I don't believe they're THAT stupid.

    2. Clyburn, one of Pelosi’s henchpersons, gave a rather long, rambling exposition on CNN about an impeachment. He was the one who spoke of going out beyond Biden’s first 100 days and then sort of trailed off into something very nonspecific. Is it possible that some (many?) of them are hoping that three + months would take the heat off, allow Biden to start doing something (scary) and maybe just let impeachment go away? Clyburn sounded wobbly.

    3. I sort of wonder if they are trying to make it so after the inaugural if enough fraud is proven to show Trump really won that he'd would have no legs to stand on to remove biden/harris.

      But then honestly I doubt there will be any investigations after the inaugural if ever.

    4. Julie Banderas, Fox stand in, said to a former prosecutor who had said that a former president could not be impeached, “No, he can’t be impeached but they could vote after the inauguration to keep him from running for office again.” Inasmuch as that is a feature of an impeachment conviction, I am wondering where Banderas got that notion. She is often very authoritative in tone but wobbly in substance.

    5. That's an interesting concept, isn't it? Congress--or, really, one political party--could vote that a particular person can't run for office? How does that work? Has she given, like, one brief moment's reflection to the implications of that? No trial--just a vote by politicians that, hey, You can't run for office?

      Some of the other lunatics in the asylum are suggesting expelling GOP reps for "sedition" under the 14th for saying things like, The GOP needs to be tougher, etc.

      A friend tells me a major left wing Italian paper ran an editorial--they're absolutely appalled at what the Left here is doing and saying

    6. This will have huge global ramifications. While many take cheap shots at America in fact we have, for nearly a century, been the moral anchor in the world. The "idea" in being that both benign and wicked regimes world wide have looked to as modelling the concept of stability; that things may not be pleasant but chaos can never consume all.

      What Tribe Davos has done, through their tools in the Uniparty, DS, and corporate minions really may precipitate a utter collapse of world civilization, with a true predatory free-for-all with large countries consuming their neighbors and then going at it over the scraps. This is scaring the hell out of a lot of people, I think.
      Tom S.

    7. "they're absolutely appalled at what the Left here is doing and saying"

      they finally succeeded after 4 years of gigantic unflinching unending efforts... job well done...

      all that power...the dopamine hits must be stupendous...



    8. The major EU countries have all expressed shock in one way or the other--Germany, France, Italy.

  9. Republican Blocks House From Bringing up 25th Amendment Resolution

  10. I think 1/6/2021 caused a bunch of legislators to experience real fear, and that could make it worse than I've been thinking.

    With the Senate and House meeting in joint session to count the electoral votes and declare a winner, some feisty Trump supporters (egged on by some of the left) entered the Capitol and wandered around. Some were led to specific offices.

    When the feisty Trump supporters began entering the Capitol building, legislators were evacuated, leaving through the tunnel. Many were fearful, as they should be. Almost all were embarrassed. This, in their view, is unforgivable.

    For the first time in their lives, legislators felt personally threatened (a few Republicans had the feeling before, with far greater reason). Those they rule with transparent dishonesty were turning against them, and they were outnumbered. Is it any wonder that they now want every one of Trump's supporters ostracized, or worse? They are still fearful, and will remain so until their power is absolute, and acknowledged by their enemies as absolute and unchallengeable. The left were already hateful, spiteful, corrupt people, but now this fear simply reinforces their conviction of virtue, which justifies their unbridled use of force.

    When the Trump supporters entered the Capitol building, they crossed a threshold no one had previously given much thought to. These were not “their” people; lefties had entered before, with no ensuing panic. These were the enemy, storming their sacred grounds, demonstrating that the rulers could not be safe with tens or hundreds of thousands of uncouth, unruly, unappreciative Trump supporters in the District. It could never be allowed to happen again.

    Our rulers are likely to never recover from this. Wherever they go, they may at any moment be approached by a crowd of Trump supporters (as Romney was), and the fear will return. They must somehow prevent it from ever happening again. Before, it was just the elite against the “Deplorables”; now, it's personal. Remember: this is the left; fear of their subjects will only make them more viscous, as is already happening.

    If this isn't headed off in the next few days, I fear extremely bad things for the coming few years.

    1. Wherever they go, they may at any moment be approached by a crowd of Trump supporters (as Romney was), and the fear will return. They must somehow prevent it from ever happening again.

      Seriously? Have you not seen Republican staffers and elected official continuously harassed while out in public - or even sitting in their own living rooms for the last 4 years ? Where have you been getting your news from? This is another game we didn't start. I'm not going to feel bad for Mitt, and it has nothing to do with what a squish he is. The guy is rich enough to have his own airline. He should be taking the G5 everywhere if he wants to be safe. The rest of can only wish we had his options!

    2. Tulsi was on Tucker tonite, ripping the Congresscritters for looking the other way, on Big Tech's abuses of power.
      This was at c. 40 minutes into the show, which airs again in c. 3 hours.

    3. Viscerally, I like Tulsi, especially on her opposition to War, and in fact gave her some money, notwithstanding some of her extreme Lib positions and anti-Trumpism. I wonder what it would take to straighten her out on some of these positions and bring her in.

  11. DFinley, those weren’t all “feisty Trump supporters”… That Sullivan BLM activist wasn’t just there to take video. A fair share of those who entered were said to be acting like tourists, looking at a place they’d never visited before. Meanwhile others were stealing things and breaking windows. Guess who the latter were… No, his “documenting” was his excuse. When we start believing the propaganda that our people were the really bad guys, we’re in real trouble.

  12. "Eyewitness Account of Chaos at the Capitol"

    It was all a setup, which included the Capitol Police


  13. Sources say McConnell is all for impeachment. What would we do without “sources”?

    (Put link on another thread by mistake….sorry…)

    1. Imagine the giggling at the NYT every time they publish a disinformation piece, knowing some Republicans will react exactly as expected.

    2. I suppose McConnell could deny these reports?

    3. It's not about McConnell. It's about admitting what the NYT is - an enemy propaganda organization.
      We are in a civil war. The NYT is leading the Dem forces.
      Twitter behaves like we're in a civil war. And Facebook. And Amazon. And the NYT.

    4. @Mark
      "I suppose McConnell could deny these reports?"

      According to Hannity tonight, McConnell has done just that. He would not confirm the report and told Hannity there is 'a lot of salacious' stuff floating around.

      Excuse me while I get over my shock that the NYT has again published a false report and pick myself up off the floor.

    5. Happened to watch Hannity for a while tonight. He spoke with McCarthy, who said the NYT claim about his being for impeachment was false; and a representative of McConnell told Hannity the same thing about the NYT’s claim about him...

  14. Hannity just had Dersh on, about the impeachment joke.

  15. And, Hannity claims that Mitch's office disputes NYT's claim on this.