Friday, January 22, 2021

The Chaos To Come?

Many regulars will know that commenter Ray So-Cal is into lists. Below is his list of expectations from the new regime. Ray presents these strictly as Wild Ass Guesses. See what you think. I've edited only lightly by have added comments in brackets.

As is usually the case, some of these events or developments--if they come to pass--will interact with others. The result may be that political and socio-economic conditions will become more chaotic than previously. IMO, it's hardly surprising that the Left is acting up already--and targeting the Dem establishment this time. Tougher tactics against Antifa/BLM would undoubtedly win widespread public support, but ...

1. Such tactics would drain Dem support from its base of support, and

2. would win little additional support from Middle America.

As a result, any crackdown will be a touch act to pull off--and likely won't happen. 

Further, the pretense of a Biden regime will quickly collapse. It starting out as threadbare, and signs with press interaction are already bad. Biden/Harris may be a front for Obama/Jarrett, but they're not ready for prime time and the fact is that Obama/Jarrett are constitutionally unable to step back in. Neither Pelosi nor Schumer--nor any other Congressional Dems--are up to the task. State Dems? Cuomo won't play outside NY, Pritzker won't play outside Chicago, and Newsom is on the hotseat in CA. Expect a rough ride.

Now, Ray So-Cal:

Perhaps nothing major will get passed in the US House and Senate due to the Thin Majorities, and Biden will keep the Trump Policies in place to keep the economy going.

Nobody really knows what will happen with a Biden Administration on the Economy: Most politicians promise the world to get elected, and do not deliver. My best guess is Biden will follow in what Obama did, since his economic team seems to be mostly former Obama Administration People.

1. Capital will stay cheap with QE 5, as I think it will be - I've lost count.  Quantitative Easing that will flood the economy with Dollars. This will keep property prices high. In CA the high cost of regulatory mreausres will keep the supply of new housing down.

2. We are going back to at best the Obama Era growth rates. The economy may even get worse.

3. Biden’s team will do their best to throttle fracking. This will hurt the economy a lot and increase oil imports. This will make the Middle East important again. 

[Comment: Interestingly, this should be a boon to Russia as it will serve to support prices for Russian oil on the world market. It may also push the US into increased competition for oil with China. However, many will be surprised at where our imported oil actually comes from. If the US in fact ends up seeking a larger share of oil from the Middle East, we could be drawn into new and intensely unpopular wars--which could also expose long terms problems in our military.]

4. Justice Department - These will come back on steroids: Critical Race Theory, Disparate Impact, police consent decrees, school punishments limited by race - restorative justice, doj prosecutions in any police shootings, etc.  End result will be even more of an increase in crime making blue areas even more unattractive. The push for Defunding the Police has already increased crime rates in many large cities in Blue States. Many police officers in larger cities feel they don't have the support of their City Leadership, and are leaving their positions. 

[The University of Chicago--until recently a bit of a holdout against CRT and PC generally among major research universities--is now considering starting up a department devoted strictly to CRT. That's a very bad sign for higher education. The flight of police officers from Blue cities will hit hard. This is another way in which This Time Is Different. Obama was able to skate on these developments in his second term because he wasn't running again. The new Joebama - h/t sundance - regime will not get a pass.]

5. China will again be our best friend and all those economic restrictions Trump put in place will be lifted or watered down. Same with Russia. Chinese Money will return on steroids. This will help property values. Chinese Students in a year will come back. This will lower the cost of some products from China, such as Security Camera Systems. Russia will supply more Natural Gas to Europe via Nord Stream 2. 

6. US Participation in Paris Accords will be back! This will hurt the US Economy due to the increase in energy costs. 

7. Lots of Solandra 2.0 type support for businesses based on politics and virtue signalling.

8. US Deficit will soar.

9. Covid will keep Economy idling worldwide for another 12 months. Tourism will continue to be down world wide. 

10. Blue states will continue lock downs and destroying their economy for another 6 months. Large Blue Cities will hurt economically disproportionately. City Centers will continue to be hurt. Multi Family in these areas will go down. Commercial Real Estate is not coming back due to the rise of telecommuting. Lots of Blue Area Refugees fleeing due to crime, quality of life, and jobs. 

[IMO, many of those City Centers simply aren't going to come back.]

11. People will continue to flee blue states, especially higher earners to states with no income tax, making the revenue even worse for Blue States (CA, NY, etc). 

[The big political fight in DC will likely turn out to be over bailouts for selected Blue states and, especially, metro areas. At the top of the list--yes, likely ahead of CA and NY--may be IL, which by almost any measure is in the worst financial shape of any state.]

12. Increase in illegal and legal immigration that will hurt wages of legal blue collar workers in the US, and the African American Unemployment Rate especially. Those that favor open borders will again be in places they can affect the immigration policy.

13. Huge increase in automation, which will hurt the unemployment rate. The threat of a $23 dollar an hour Federal Minimum Wage will be more of an incentive. Many areas of the US already have a $15 dollar an hour minimum wage. Small businesses will suffer, since larger businesses can afford to pay a higher minimum wage. 

14. Democrats have threatened to take 1031 exchanges away. I don't think they have the votes, but who knows. Last time there was a Democratic President, House, and Senate all that got done was Obamacare. This is a HUGE UNKNOWN with a huge impact on the Real Estate Economy. 

15. Individual health insurance mandate will be back, hurting the lower income demographic.

16. Price of Gasoline will increase, hurting lower income people more.

17. K-12 and Universities will open up in Fall of 2021 in Blue States, including California. Growth in home schooling will continue, even after government schools open up.  

18. Perhaps Democrats will  reverse the 2016 Tax Stuff, and the Property Tax Penalty for Blue States. Biden has threatened higher taxes on incomes from real estate investors above $400K. Probably Increase of the corporate tax rate to pre-Trump levels. Perhaps they will add 3 new states, including DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam. 

[Dems know they may only have two years--at most--to do these things that they would undoubtedly like to do. But these will be difficult, and they may have to focus on things that can be accomplished instead by Executive Orders--with regulations that flow from them.]

19. There will be a focus again on re-regulation, vs the deregulation that the Trump Administration favored.

[Under cover of Covid related Executive Orders, new and intrusive regulations over virtually every aspect of life will expand explosively.]

Inland Empire in California I believe will continue to do well due to warehousing Jobs, until these get automated. The automation that Amazon is doing in their warehouses is incredible.

Los Angeles won't do as well. Especially with the new District Attorney that will result in an increase in crime.  

We may be heading into an inflationary time. No matter what, people need a place to live. Wages have gone up. Lots of money being pumped into the economy. Another view I read on Zerohedge is stagflation. 


  1. "We may be heading into an inflationary time."

    I ask, when have not been?

    Trump spent a Trillion on a ton of

    worthless Trylons.

    Bankers always win ...until they don't,coming soon?

  2. I can see how these Antifa groups are mad, they now realize they helped get a fascist/corporate government into power.

    Rob S

    1. I don't think it would have mattered if Nadezhda Krupskaya was installed on 1-20. Whomever is in the seat is between them and us. We were always the real target. Antifa cadres are the granular level exemplar of my narcissiterian theory of socio-political self-sorting.
      Tom S.

  3. Hopium is one hell of a drug.

  4. The list is a good one.

    The Democrats will have to worry about losing their House majority in the 2022 elections.

  5. I would add:

    VOA will become Global PropogandaRUs, with gaslighting and rosy lies available to the highest bidder. Who knew Hunter was also an expert in Communications and Media along with Energy.


    Expect huge strides in Labor. Most especially the disappearance of Right-to-Work, possibly by legislation but more probably by EO.

    Don't say it can't be done: Biden has literally metamorphosed our understanding of biology by EO. The Constitution is no longer an obstacle of more than passing concern.
    Tom S.

    1. "The Constitution is no longer an obstacle of more than passing concern."

      As certified by the SCOTUS in the TX case.

  6. Forgot gun control. I expect full throttle.

  7. I think Ray is being to kind...

    Much less blundering much more direct shots are in order.

    Covid will become a federalized weapon and defacto payment system for regiment support and favors.

    Fracking and natural gas will be a direct target. They will slaughter the PA area especially with this. Driving costs of main street will be priority 1.

    I don't think legislative measures will ba a problem. The Uniparty Dems bad Repubs good game and pandering will be made into it's usually display of grandeur. With the usual RINO cover game getting everything passes they want.

    State Repub parties will go all out on the "were good, their bad" meaningless counter measures. Tough sounding lawsuits and state bills that amount to nothing. Expect massive straw man arguments about 10th and 2nd amendment issues sprinkled with secession sounding legislative dead ends.

    The earth will be swallowed by the sun before anyone can get the first 30 days of DCs light speed agendas into a court. Think Obama care for example, that's STILL in the courts.

    Durham and the Hunter related whimpers will be replaced with new opposition bait arguments.

    Resistance and political wrangling will be top priorities... Much of the theater dance will be geared towards reining in disgruntled voters. This will be a double tap of terrorist narratives and GOP false saviors designed to get people believing in the other half being good.

    Watch how long they drag Trump around with lawsuits and legal threats to keep his finger off of the trigger of new party creation.

    They need a new boogie man... No idea where that will come from but it will come. Covid is too old and obvious, Russia is an eye roll. I suspect domestic terrorist will be popular.

    What we need to be doing is pushing individual states, like texas and Louisiana, to avoid the theater dance and put their finger on the energy switch. A small handful could and would take out out US dollar by attrition and completely kill of their buying power.

    NAFTA will be back ASAP!

    1. "before anyone can get the first 30 days of DCs light speed agendas into a court."
      You mean, get the Dems' agendas blocked by a court?

      "Durham... replaced with new opposition *bait arguments*."
      In order to distract from what he was expected to produce? What sort of bait?

      "GOP false saviors designed to get people believing in the other half being good."
      You mean, designed to get GOP voters believing in Dems being good?

    2. NAFTA will not be resurrected. There was too many good items in USMCA that will cause it to remain. They just won't give Trump any credit.


    3. "Fracking and natural gas will be a direct target. They will slaughter the PA area especially with this."

      How ironic.
      I wonder if PA will learn any lessons from this.

      What's the old saying: "cheaters never prosper"


    4. @Anany,

      As always my fingers are faster than my punctuation!

      You mean, get the Dems' agendas blocked by a court?
      I see zero distinction in R or D, to me they are the same. Texas is already engaging it the "anti fed" lawsuit game. It's a unproductive waste of time as you can't out pace bad legislative measures in a court.

      What sort of bait?

      Whatever bait sounds appealing to conservatisum. They used the two john's for the past 3 years to keep the right at bay believing their would be some sort of justice. It's a game of appeasement, not a legal process of justice.

      You mean, designed to get GOP voters believing in Dems being good?

      No, I mean to get voters believing again in the GOP being on their side. That appearance of choice keeps BOTH sides believing in "there side*.

      There are no sides, there is just a corrupt government pretending to be divided.

      My long winded, but better punctuated ranting.

  8. I think he left out the use of the DOJ to raise funds for leftist organization by filing charges on big corporations and banks and then allowing them to settle by agreeing to pay a fine. The monies are then distributed to left wing organizations. A Holder DNC fundraising scam.

    1. Probably because he knew that's already done. I think that was Wednesday afternoon.

    2. Biden has already done away with Sessions rule here. To clarify, this grift is the brainchild of Obama and "restitution" payments are made directly to Democrat Leftist organizations. I expect this part of Chairman Xidens modus operandi to be overt, and very, very aggressive.


  9. A first! Schumer says Trump will be tried for inciting an "erection". Tells you a lot about America when that's considered a high crime or misdemeanor.

  10. Add to the list the regulation that Health Care organizations to publish their pricing to be revoked or not enforced.

    Any law or regulation they don't like will be ignored. After all who can do anything about it.


  11. I was trying to focus on what will impact the economy with the list, and keep it non political.

    On the political side Biden is beyond my wildest dreams, and not in a good way...

  12. List item #20: They have full control on vote counting now, with impunity. So nothing matters anymore, until that gets fixed. According to Bezmenov, fixing it requires military intervention, which won't happen until things get much much worse, as in Venezuela level worse.

    Suggest moving to Canada and start working on a new republic in a couple of generations.

  13. They may not have the votes? What a quaint concept.

  14. Biden is already loosening the restrictions on buying Chinese.

    Biden is now allowing in Chinese equipment for the us power grid.

    China is definitely getting a great return on investment for everything they did to help get Biden elected.

    1. That's US jobs. The toilet of public approval--such as it is even now--may be swirling.

  15. regarding my post of Jan 22nd @ 1:36 pm