That would be Thomas Lifson's article at AmThinker today:
Democrats have outsmarted themselves on mail-in voting and on election eve are having a Wylie Coyote moment
Well, we'll forgive Lifson the misspelling. The article itself is a nice overview of Dem miscalculations in their too-smart-by-half election strategy
The plan that seemed so smart once they realized that COVID was a golden opportunity to distract from President Trump’s massive foreign policy and economic triumphs is backfiring.
The plan, in short, was to terrorize Americans with fear porn over the purported dangers of COVID (despite it being 99%+ survivable for all but those over 70, and despite huge progress in therapeutics driving the survival rate even higher), while emphasizing mail-in voting for their base. Republicans, they thought, could be discouraged from in-person voting on Election Day, and with compliant state governors, AGs, and secretaries of state extending deadlines for mail-in votes, the margin of victory could be manufactured in the days afterward.
Lifson goes on to explain how this strategery has failed spectacularly. In doing so he cites Larry Schweikart at some length. Among Schweikart's many point, I want to focus on one:
Several things began to severely damage that plan. First, the GOP won 11/14 court cases, with the remaining 3 likely headed to the USSC. Most of these drastically limited the time and/or conditions under which these votes can be counted and for how long.
Then the anvil fell. RBG died. That meant that there would be NO appeals related to fraud that could succeed.
Schweikart, without mentioning Mitch McConnell by name, is highlighting McConnell's enormous role in this momentous election. That role began with facing down Obama and the MSM over the Merrick Garland SCOTUS nomination--keeping that spot open for a potential GOP president: Trump as it turned out.
Trump was undoubtedly not McConnell's choice for POTUS, but since Trump's election McConnell has steadfastly supported Trump's THREE picks for the SCOTUS and shepherded those nominations through to confirmation, maintaining party unity against all odds. With Justice Amy taking her seat on the high court bench this morning, the transformation of the SCOTUS has entered new and unheard of territory. Republicans can look to those 3 cases likely headed to the SCOTUS with a new measure of confidence, without the doubts over what role Roberts will play.
Beyond that, however, McConnell has also played a major role in the 11/14 court victories this election season (so far). This is because, faced by determined obstruction by Chuck Schumer, who has refused to allow judicial confirmations to be expedited through unanimous consent, McConnell has focused on obtaining confirmations of federal appeals court judges. McConnell's strategy is a very smart most-bank-for-your-buck move. While many district court vacancies remain unfilled, the effect of the remake of circuit court benches has been striking. In particular, we have seen the effect throughout these election law cases.
The result of McConnell's efforts is that a major part of the Dem strategy for disrupting the elections--through jiggering of local elections laws--has been short circuited (pun intended). And now we have the promise of quick resolutions of any post election disputes, as well.
Interesting EV etc. calls from Matt Forney (best known as a player in the MGTOW mov't), at
ReplyDeletehttps://www.unz.com/akarlin/predictions-us-elections-2020/ , comment # 46:
"Trump 331 (all 2016 states plus Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico), Biden 207
Reasoning:
.... (many paras, incl. on the weakness of Biden's ground game)
Senate prediction: Republicans 55 (+2), Democrats 45 (-2).
....
House predictions: Republicans 220 (+21), Democrats 215 (-21)
I’m shakier on this...."
Little known fact. NM is the 3rd largest oil producing state in the country. The SE corner is part of the big Permian basin. The title of this NYT story tells you all you need to know about why NM might well flip:
DeleteNew Mexico's Oil Boom: Bounty for one of the country's poorest states.
Totally agree with the whliey coyote analogy. I am not sure who it was that brainstormed out their current plight but election law meet pandemic porn wasn't a good strategy.
ReplyDeleteI am a little annoyed with the SCOTUS on kicking the can untill after the election. I understand there is a view point that the fight may not be a fight depending the outcome. However any pre election issues that have merit should be hashed out pre not post. Especially when doing so would give voters the opportunity to adjust.
In the end this will probably help Trump but will probably not help the impending chaos.
And honestly... I wonder how much of of the Dems election planning have been about winning vs knowing they can't and just stockpiling as much mud to throw as possible.
Very little work on election strategy, a whole lotta work on narratives.
With interim court rulings allowing mail in votes to arrive late, failure by the Supreme Court to act could be viewed as the cause of more late votes than otherwise would have happened. Is the SC really going to throw out votes made on the basis of Pennsylvania's Supreme Court ruling that they could put their ballot in the mail as late as election day and still have it counted? Of course, the law is the law, but then there is politics. Throwing out votes after the election will dirty up any Trump victory. Not that they need much excuse for it, but Dems will treat Trump as even more illegitimate if that happens.
DeletePennsylvania's pro-Dem voting practices were upheld in the local courts and by a 4-4 US Supreme Court. If the practices are reconsidered by a 9-member Court once the election there (and hence nationwide) has been stolen by the Dems, we are in for some crazy times. But then again, it is 2020!
ReplyDeleteI am not a lawyer, much less a social media one... so I have been confused by the conflicting noise around these recent rulings. Perhaps Mark can assist:
DeleteIt is my understanding that the court has not "ruled against" anything. In most cases, they have simply deferred to whatever the lower court said.
This means that not only can they still rule on something, its highly likely they will combine some of the conflicting lower court rulings as a single unit.
Further, we should not assume that Roberts will knife us or that ACB will support us based on the recent prior decisions. As we have preferred since the beginning, "our side" nominates jurists to the bench, which means they evaluate and conclude based on their best reading of the EXISTING law, sometimes to our surprise. This is in contrast to the unelected legislators like the "wise latina" that are entirely predictable.
Here's where PA stands re the SCOTUS. SCOTUS DID rule against PA's GOP, but that was 4-4, pre Justice Amy. PA's GOP asked for a rehearing and asked for it to be EXPEDITED. The expedited part was denied--again, 4-4 without Justice Amy. However, the request for a NON-expedited rehearing is still alive, and when that comes up Justice Amy will participate, because she just began her duties today. In the meantime, PA agreed to sequester the later ballots.
DeleteWhat if PA brass (w/ a Dem governor) blows off this vow, to sequester the later ballots?
ReplyDeleteEven if they're sentenced to jail for a felony, Biden would pardon them anyway, and all-but canonize them.
Any idea, of when the request for a NON-expedited rehearing will come up?
DeleteNo. Everything is different now with Justice Amy, and I don't know appellate procedure.
DeleteInteresting thoughts from https://forecastingintelligence.org/2020/11/02/can-the-donald-pull-it-off-the-sequel/ :
ReplyDelete"In Nevada, turnout in *rural* white areas has been sky-high and the evidence suggests that this is happening across the country....
The Big Data/People’s Pundit pollsters are showing a close but still competitive race in the Rust Belt battlefield states.
They do not factor in “shy Trump” voters, but every poll shows that *voters themselves* think such a thing exists.
Interestingly, their underlying polling data suggests that *suburban* voters are the most likely to be shy in their vote.
Does that suggest that Trump will out-perform expectations among *suburban* voters on Election Day, like he did in 2016?....
So, my overall prediction is that Trump will win Florida, probably comfortably and with-it Arizona and North Carolina which have similar demographics.
President Trump faces a tougher battle in the Rust Belt States, and here, I am cautiously confident that he will likely edge out Jo Biden in the majority, if not all, the Rust Belt battlefield states....
So, to conclude, my final forecast is that President Trump is likely to win the election (60% probability) with an electoral college win of 320."
I just learned about this consent decree the RNC has been under for 40 years preventing them from challenging results effectively. Ended in 2018: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rnc-freed-from-restrictions-of-consent-decree-goes-on-ballot-security-offensive
ReplyDeleteThis is great news
Thanks. I didn't know that, either.
Deletewhatever happens the oath to my family never expires
ReplyDelete