Sooner or later the facts will catch up with the hype:
1/ They will spin this as hard as possible, but it is awful news. Up to 15 Israelis who are a week out from the third dose have already died? 88 are very sick?
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) August 22, 2021
Understand:
A) The denominator here will be in person-DAYS - that’s how little time has passed since boosters started. pic.twitter.com/dEAxROSsXs
Math doesn't look right in tweet, 187 is 6.5% of 2790 not 0.01%.
ReplyDeleteThe math doesn’t work. Either the numbers or the percentages are wildly off.
ReplyDeleteWill someone please explain the arithmetic?
ReplyDeleteRe the math--it's not in Berenson's "tweet". It's in the Times of Israel story which Berenson is quoting. There may be some explanation based off the TI story, but I'm not a math guy. However, based on the absolute numbers, Berenson's point seems valid.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to know more about the age breakdown of the people in this Israeli group.
ReplyDeleteThe quote leaves out that the news article reports that 1.1 million booster shots have been given. Of those, 2,790 breakthrough cases (~0.25%), 187 hospitalizations (0.017%), and 88 deaths. There are some rounding errors, so we would need a more precise number than 1.1M to get more accurate percentages. It’s not clear what the unvaccinated Covid infection rate is nor the breakthrough rate among patients with 2 shots, so difficult to draw comparisons.
ReplyDeleteI checked the FDA website, now that Pfizer has full approval and can't find any new information or warnings. Just the same ones from when it was approved for emergency use only.
ReplyDeleteFor details on such matters, see the BMJ op-ed at https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/23/does-the-fda-think-these-data-justify-the-first-full-approval-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/ :
Delete< The FDA should demand adequate, controlled studies with *long term* follow up, and make data publicly available, before granting full approval to covid-19 vaccines, says *Peter Doshi* (senior editor).
On 28 July 2021, Pfizer and BioNTech posted updated results for their ongoing phase 3 covid-19 vaccine trial.
The preprint came almost a year to the day after the historical trial commenced, and nearly four months since the companies announced vaccine efficacy estimates “up to six months.”
But you *won’t find 10 month* follow-up data here. While the preprint is new, the results it contains aren’t particularly up to date.
In fact, the paper is based on the same data cut-off date (13 March 2021) as the 1 April press release, and its topline efficacy result is identical: 91.3% (95% CI 89.0 to 93.2) vaccine efficacy against symptomatic covid-19 through “up to six months of follow-up.”
The 20 page preprint matters, because it represents the *most detailed* public account of the pivotal trial data Pfizer submitted, in pursuit of the world’s first “full approval” of a coronavirus vaccine from the Food and Drug Administration.
It deserves careful scrutiny.... >
Somebody really oughta clue Trump in. He’s still urging supporters to get the jab and, worse, taking credit for its creation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.wnd.com/2021/08/trump-booed-alabama-rally-telling-supporters-get-vaccinated/
His greatest weakness is his adoration for prestige. He thinks the prestigious scientists from Harvard are saying the truth.
DeleteHe also is suffering from the Sunk Cost Fallacy - he partly hedged his re-election campaign on Warp Speed, and is not wont to publicly admit he was wrong.
He was, and is, incredible, and his greatest legacy will be red pilling many of us (who thought we were red pilled before he came along).
But at this point in the battle, we need a new hero.
Charles Z