Don't you luv it when liberals get bitten in the ass by their own hoaxes?
In a major story today the NYT seems to be warning Dems to back off the BLM hoax, because it's about to cost them dearly. An unspoken subtext--because it cuts too close to the ideological heart of the left--could be that years of White Privilege and White Supremacist hate narratives from the Left are coming home to roost. Riots? Sky high murder rates? It seems the NYT hasn't even heard of those aspects of the BLM phenomenon, but I'm betting everyone else has.
The story goes under this totally daft question:
The answer to that question could be said to run along these lines: You're joking me, right?
Support for BLM has, during the past year has absolutely cratered--and it didn't actually take long for that to happen. Quoth the NYT:
The reason for the drop seems to be shifting attitudes among Republicans and white Americans, two large and often overlapping groups.
Yes, white Americans are a large group--a very large group. So are Republicans or--worse for Dems--potential Republicans. Donald Trump demonstrated that truth in Election 2020 by attracting large numbers of Hispanics and, in a relative sense, Black men. Hang onto that bit about "overlapping groups", because you'll want to keep it in mind when you look at two graphs from the article.
The article is very much advocacy journalism, not just reporting. It's about desperately seeking some rationalization for this deplorable (!) development. In other words, as already seen--blaming the terrible polling numbers on deplorables: "Republicans and white Americans, two large and often overlapping groups."
Now look at those two graphs. Yes, the cratering of support among Whites is notable, but also notable is that while the upward spike among Hispanics actually exceeded the White spike, the subsequent drop is approximately just as drastic, even if it hasn't dipped so low in absolute terms. To speak, as the authors do, of coalition building, therefore, is whistling through a graveyard. Also note the way Black support seems to track Dem support. Yes, the two are different, but ...
"After Floyd’s death, Republicans reported much stronger support for Black Lives Matter than they had earlier in 2020," argue @HakeemJefferson and @pikachudy. "This increase in support was striking. But perhaps even more striking is its rapid decline." https://t.co/rjFsSjVGkD pic.twitter.com/81SAr8l0yW— New York Times Opinion (@nytopinion) May 23, 2021
"Last summer, as Black Americans turned their sorrow into action, attitudes — especially white attitudes — shifted from tacit support to outright opposition, a pattern familiar in American history," write @HakeemJefferson and @pikachudy. https://t.co/dSmeYaAAyE pic.twitter.com/L8CzKIP2Uq— New York Times Opinion (@nytopinion) May 23, 2021
There's simply no good news in any of that. Coalition of the fringes? Forget it. The reality was Trump's outreach in Election 2020. Those same voters who crossed over to Trump have all the same reasons and more to vote the Dems out in 2022. I'm not saying that this polling is a direct proxy for how voting will go, for partisan choices, but it definitely will factor in in a major way.
And speaking of that, Newt Gingrich--a blast from the past!--has a worthwhile article at Fox today:
The hurricane that's building is the concerns and attitudes of the American people over what’s happening
Gingrich starts by pointing out that most of the usual Inside The Beltway gossip oriented stories don't interest most Americans. But then he points out the things that do interest average Americans--the economy is looking like a train wreck:
That hurricane is the concerns and attitudes of the American people over what’s happening in the American reality.
The fiercest band of the hurricane is the looming acceleration of inflation. One report compared the average price of various commodities in May 2020 under President Donald Trump to those in May 2021 under President Joe Biden. Here are some staggering numbers:
But then he turns to the schools--an absolutely key part of American reality, and it's here that the NYT article above intersects with Gingrich's narrative:
First, the culture of work in America is built around the assumption that schools would be available to watch children. When this breaks down, American lives are reshaped in a way which particularly impacts women, who are the most likely to stay home with children. (This is not a statement of misogyny or any sort of "ism," it is a statement of American reality.)
Second, the quality of education will affect children for their entire lives. The decay of the big city schools has been devastating for poor children. The current pattern of trying to eliminate magnet schools so no one will feel bad because all will be equally mediocre is a mortal threat to the economic future of American children.
Third, the new cycle of radical indoctrination of left-wing values about race, American history, sexual issues, and "wokeism" directly threatens parents, who find their own personal beliefs being ridiculed and attacked by teachers who are authority figures in the classroom.
The erosion of education and teachers’ union arrogance, radicalism, and incompetence are driving more and more people to favor the right to pick what school they send their children to (81 percent of Americans favored school choice in a recent McLaughlin & Associates survey).
Remarkably, Gingrich totally whiffs on Covid. Not a mention. Not in a general cultural sense about masks and lockdowns, not with reference to schools and teachers unions. But that will also be working against Dems.
Gingrich closes with the bottom line for Election 2022:
... two polls in the last week (one Democrat and one Republican) have shown the generic vote for the House tied.
Tied is huge bad news for Dems.
Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director and Editor in Chief of the Crystal Ball newsletter, now has 19 incumbent Democrats in toss-up races and only two Republicans.