First, we have a comparison of Swedish death rates with those of Norway and Denmark--extremely close Scandinavian neighbors. The numbers show cumulative deaths, so the numbers in Scandinavia are pretty low, but note the difference in trajectories and recall that there's a fairly lengthy time span from initial infection to death:
The second graph compares deaths per million people from selected countries. Note that Sweden's trajectory is close to that of Italy--not something public health officials would normally want to emulate. Also note that while Germany was not long ago being held up as demonstrating that the overall death rate for COVID will turn out to be quite a bit lower than expected--the idea that our death rate would come down toward Germany's--instead we see that the US and Germany are continuing on extremely similar trajectories:
The strategy is to accept a higher trajectory, expecting that herd immunity will develop faster.
ReplyDeleteSo, of course, the trajectory is relatively high. That is no surprise.
I suppose that Sweden figures reasonably that it can manage the higher trajectory because of its social solidarity and because of its medical resources.
Let's see how that strategy works out for Sweden.
Mike, I think your view is quite naive. Let's be very clear about what you're saying.
DeleteWhen you say "a higher trajectory" what you mean is "a higher death rate or trajectory of fatalities." A higher death trajectory--and we see in the graphs a very steep trajectory--can only mean that the underlying disease is both very infectious and quite deadly. In other words, in a population with NO immunity that is exposed to infection by an infectious and deadly disease, a very high number of deaths is quite foreseeable--even with a 'low' case mortality rate of around 1%. With COVID, achieving so-called herd immunity would require infecting about 60% of the population. That is reckless gambling with human lives, given that neither natural immunity nor a vaccine is a foregone conclusion.
Re medical resources, we have repeatedly seen that countries that take no mandatory measures have their medical systems overwhelmed.
Here are three links that discuss these issues in some depth:
Deletehttps://www.technologynetworks.com/immunology/articles/is-a-herd-immunity-approach-to-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-viable-option-332199
http://theconversation.com/the-herd-immunity-route-to-fighting-coronavirus-is-unethical-and-potentially-dangerous-133765
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us/
Mike, I was listening to the interview with two Aussie scientists, virologists, in one of those links. The interview was dated 3/17 and one of the scientists stated that if you leave out the Chinese deaths the total worldwide was 1500. Today in the US--with all our distancing, etc., we are over 12K already. That shows how quickly this situation develops in just a few weeks. Look again at the graph comparing flu and COVID in the other post. That kind of trajectory is not sustainable for any society.
DeleteMark, the flatten the curve strategy acknowledges that you will end up in the same place in terms of total cases, just on a longer timeline.
ReplyDeleteAn argument can be made that by flattening the curve you can minimize the deaths, but I don't think anyone has actually proven this yet. In other words, has being able to hospitalize people actually saved the lives of COVID-19 victims to any significant degree? I think the issue is still unsettled at this point given that the most optimistic sounding stat I have seen is that 33% of the people put on a ventilator survives. All we are doing may be nothing more than having people die in hospitals rather than at home. Someone is going to have to show the hospital is a net benefit.
"An argument can be made that by flattening the curve you can minimize the deaths, but I don't think anyone has actually proven this yet."
DeleteThe idea is to buy time for developing a vaccine and for identifying specific medical treatments, i.e., HCQ+, etc.
Hospitalization for COVID does not = being put on a ventilator--that's what you sound like you're saying. NY has something like 4K people on HCQ and is apparently encouraged enough that they're asking Trump to facilitate obtaining more from India. Other countries, too, are having success in that regard. It's taken time, but it looks like effective treatments are beginning to come on line.
"has being able to hospitalize people actually saved the lives of COVID-19 victims to any significant degree?"
Yes, hospitalizing people people does help. The proof can be seen in the number of discharges compared to the number of deaths. Many of those discharges would have died without the palliative care they received in hospital that they couldn't have received at home.
This goes back to your regular contention that the hospitals are being filled with people who aren't very sick--which is not true.
It's my understanding that the Swedish government is counting on its well-educated, socially cohesive population to employ good precautions. The population understands that it is supposed to wash hands, maintain social-distancing, stay home while sick, and so forth.
ReplyDeleteSince it can count on its own population's good conduct, the government does not have to try to enforce strictly everyone's every action.
In such a somewhat relaxed regime, trajectories might be somewhat higher -- but not so high that Sweden's medical system is overwhelmed.
If the trajectories indeed are relatively higher, then natural immunity will develop relatively faster.
This strategy seems reasonable to me for Sweden -- which has a well-educated, socially cohesive population, the housing of which is relatively spread out and the medical system of which might be adequately prepared.
Mike, I can agree that Sweden probably has some things going for it, not least a population that I'm going to guess is healthier than significant portions of the US population. However, like most 1st World countries their population is aging--20% over 65, and presumably quite a few more over 60. That's a large reservoir open to serious illness--not necessarily death, but plenty enough to overwhelm the health system. Recall, flu season is spread out over 7-8 months, whereas the explosion of COVID in any given country has happened within a matter of a few weeks. That makes all the difference. When that happens, all other medical services go by the boards.
DeleteFor example, last year's flu season--one of the longest on record, the longest in 10 years--took 34K lives. That was over 7-8 mos. COVID has already taken 12K in just a matter of weeks, with a big surge claimed to lie ahead. In the case of COVID, those numbers are only about 25% of hospitalizations at most, in the same short time span. COVID consumes far more medical resources in a shorter timeframe.
Again, natural immunity is not a given. The common cold is a common coronavirus. When you get a cold in the fall, you develop an immunity that lasts for about 2-3 mos. So then you may well get another cold in the spring because your immunity has lapsed. That's fine for you--you can deal with a cold. But what if that's what happens with COVID? Herd immunity will be meaningless, because it will need to be reestablished every year until there's a vaccine (also not a given), at a huge cost in deaths and disabilities every single year.
Two more links:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/
If you look at Worldometer the real story seems to be in the death numbers. Sweden has about the same population as Denmark and Norway combined. It's deaths are TWICE that of Denmark and Norway combined. Moreover, while Denmark and Norway seem to be getting deaths more or less under control (8, 16 and 5, 13 for the last two days) Sweden appears to be accelerating to higher levels: 76 yesterday, 114 today. The ultimate story is in the future.
DeleteAn evaluation contrasting the 'Swedish' vs 'Immigrant' population, much the same way the demographics of some U.S. cities have been analyzed here, might be interesting. A much larger percentage of the total population of Sweden than Denmark and especially Norway, I think.
DeleteSweden's immigrants will never be 'Swedish' beyond the ink on their passport.
Tom S.
An interesting thing to note about those countries: Norway has 167K moslems; Denmark 270K; Sweden 900K. I believe they are centered in Malmo, which they have turned into a complete [fill in blank] and no-go zone for police.
ReplyDeleteI'm curious what effect, if any, the presence of such a large number of refugees, getting near 9% of the population, has on infection & mortality rates, etc., since I wouldn't expect them to be as law abiding as your average Martin Beck Swede.
Titan, I had that factor in mind but didn't realize that the % in Sweden was quite that high. Do you think they're doing sensible, voluntary social distancing? Me neither.
DeleteMark - Great point!
DeleteIs there any ethnic breakdown of deaths by Coronavirus in the the Nordic Countries?
Great work on looking at similar issues in the US, you were ahead of the curve.
I wonder, if Temperature if having some impact on CoronaVirus, on how bad it is.
DeleteEcuador is having a horrible time of it from what I have read:
https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/ecuador
NYC, Italy, and Iran all seemed to be having similar temperature. Around 50-60 degrees F.
Yes, one of my sons told me about Ecuador. My wife knows folks from Guayaquil.
DeleteHere's a total must read comparing NYC and Italy:
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/04/07/death-toll-new-york-lower-expected-lately/
"It's deaths are TWICE that of Denmark and Norway combined."
DeleteIf its Muslims are likewise twice that of Denmark and Norway combined, these two sets of numbers may be together be creating nearly a wash.
Insofar as we fall short, of the Swedes' socially cohesive population, we're likely closer than they, to a socio-economic expolsion, this possibly exacerbated by tensions spurred by the lockdown.
Don't be shocked, if these tensions explode onto the scene, once the lockdown is eased.
Such an explosion would likely be a dream-come-true for the D.S., as it would give them perfect excuse, to permanently reimpose the lockdown.
Perhaps this was the aim all along, of them encouraging publicity about the most alarmist possible models.
Recall, I wrote a post about What They Don't Want You To Know. The Establishment is afraid that these discrepancies will break out into community conflict and think that hiding the reality (lack of transparency) will somehow prevent that. What will prevent it is real transparency. I'm talking about the US now.
DeleteTPTB, by pushing de facto open borders, and dissing those who warned that such policies would (in due course) bring devastating diseases from sh*thole countries, have made this bed w/o our consent.
ReplyDeleteA society which so quickly imports so many malcontents, and also manufactures armies of domestic malcontents, has a helluva road to hoe, no matter what policies it pursues in such crises as this one.
Even the Swedes, PC as they are, had to draw a line:
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%98resund_Bridge#Border_checks