Remarkable Political Judo

I was talking about this with my wife last night, and I think Brit Hume gets it exactly right. I told my wife, Trump is leaving Blue State governors--the governors of virtually all the most hard hit states--holding the bag. If they had played as federalist style team players with the POTUS, Trump would have welcomed them with open arms. But they were playing a different game, a dishonorable one, and now Trump has positioned himself as the one who wants to reopen America and the governors--as is proper--will have to make the tough decisions. Trump will still be there to help them, but they'll need to play his game if they don't want to carry the sole blame for anything that goes wrong. If they try to continue playing a "Blame Trump First" game, their voters will see through it.

Here's how Brit Hume puts it:

When POTUS claimed — incorrectly — that he had absolute power to reopen the country, there were cries of “authoritarian,” and “constitutional crisis.” Now that he’s largely leaving up to governors, he’s putting the “onus” on them, or the “burden” on them.

Will Chamberlain has a pretty good article at American Conservative on how this is working out: Trump’s Plan to Reopen the Economy is the Right One. Chamberlain touches on a number of important issues but concludes with the political considerations:

Moreover, the president’s plan isn’t just epidemiologically sound; it’s politically astute. As a matter of constitutional law, President Trump does not have “total authority” to force states to re-open or remain closed; state-level directives are rooted in the police power, which the federal government does not possess. Showdowns with state governors would leave the president on the legal and political low ground: if the President were to order, say, Gavin Newsom to re-open California, Newsom would have both the power and the political incentive to resist. That would leave the president looking impotent, and Newsom looking like an even more attractive 2024 presidential contender. Conversely, if he were to order the state of North Dakota to stay closed against its governor’s wishes, he would fail, and needlessly agitate his base.

A savvy politician, the president likely grasps this troublesome dynamic and has decided to stay above the fray, issuing guidelines rather than heavy-handed orders. That is the correct move. It’s not time to re-open the entire economy, nor is it time for a heavy-handed, universal federal lockdown. It’s time to beat the virus, in a way that makes sense–and our country’s governors are best positioned to do that.

Trump's guidelines are common sensical. It will now be up to the governors--again, mostly of Blue States--to explain to their voters what they're doing, or not doing. That adds an interesting dynamic going into the 2020 elections. Dems will need to concentrate heavily on the bluest of Blue states, with fewer resources to spare for swing states.