Saturday, April 4, 2020

Where Is The Covid19 Epicenter In New York?

A few days ago I did a post on the demographics of Covid19 in New York City: What They Don't Want You To Know. I just read an article at The Epoch Times (Falun Gong) that addresses the question of where Covid19 cases are most concentrated. The title tells the story: CCP Virus Infection in US Most Concentrated in Three NYC Suburbs, New Orleans. CCP means Chinese Communist Party--that's how Falun Gong refers to this disease, not without reason.

Of course the highest total number of cases in New York state are in New York City, but that's not the highest location per capita if you look at the counties in the suburban metro area. Interestingly, those New York counties aren't all concentred. If you look at five counties instead of just three, all with high per capita rates of Covid19 you go from Northwest (Orange and Rockland) to North (Westchester) to East on Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk).

Here's what we get from the article in The Epoch Times:

The epidemic has been the most concentrated in three suburbs around New York City as well as in New Orleans. 
While New York City has the highest number of confirmed cases, over 57,000, when counted per capita, the worst hit is Rockland County, a neighboring suburb of some 325,000 on the west side of the Hudson River. 
More than one in 67 Rockland residents has tested positive, a rate over twice as high as in New York City. 
Westchester County, a large suburb across the river from Rockland, has about one in 74 residents confirmed infected, a total of more than 13,000 cases as of April 3, according to the state’s Department of Health. 
New Orleans, the largest city in Louisiana with a population of nearly 400,000, is the third most affected area in the nation, with more than 1 in 100 testing positive. 
Nassau County, a large suburban area on Long Island just east of Queens, is in a similar situation with nearly one in 100 residents confirmed as infected.
In New York City and Westchester, it appears the pace of the epidemic has somewhat plateaued. Not so in Rockland, where the rate of infection still seems to be rapidly accelerating. Nassau, as well as the Suffolk and Orange counties, have experienced a quickening of the spread as well.

The article doesn't give statistics for Suffolk and Orange counties, so I looked them up at USA Facts. Here's what I found for all the relevant counties on a per 100K population basis:

Suburban Counties
Rockland 1316.5
Westchester 1276.6
Nassau 886.1
Suffolk 687.7 100k
Orange 622.7 100k 
NYC Counties
Queens 835.1
Richmond 788.4 (Staten Island)
Bronx 781.7
Kings 613.3 (Brooklyn)
New York 518.9 (Manhattan)

Finally, I consulted the New York Times. The NYT lumped all NYC counties together, but this is what they offer--and these should be the most up to date of all the stats:

Location         Cases Per 100k     Deaths Per 100K
NYC                      749.8                       22.1
Nassau                 983.8                       29.2
Westchester        1350.1                      20.3
Suffolk                   764.2                      11.8
Rockland             1505.2                       15.4
Orange                  724.7                         8.5

So, for anyone who thinks Covid19 is a disease for crowded, dirty, urban areas--reconsider that.


  1. I am not sure anyone is saying that this.

    The Kungflu is indiscriminate. It has no moral compunction. It's mindless. So, those areas, rich or poor, that commingle more than others are harder hit.

    1. There are people saying that, but it's mistaken. There are, IMO, a number of factors that contribute. Among them diet that leads to health problems, as well as social customs--as you suggest--that lead to closer commingling.

    2. Dude, I don't know. I have my life experience, my brain, and that's it.

      This thing appears very bad, but the numbers betray that. Then, are the numbers correct?

      On and on it goes.

    3. New York Times said 25% of the deaths in the city were in nursing homes; 15% overall in nursing homes. This was Tuesday, so may no longer be true. There are a lot of nursing homes in Westchester Cty.

  2. My guess is a lot of people in those suburbs commuted to NYC.

  3. "So, for anyone who thinks Covid19 is a disease for crowded, dirty, urban areas--reconsider that".

    Or...consider that there are plenty of crowded, dirty, urban areas in Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk, Rockland and Orange counties. Its not all bucolia.

  4. A friend of mine died of covid on mar. 23. (91 years old) He was an active business man who lived in suburbs of Schenectady NY. Way upstate. He took one trip about two weeks prior to NYC. Amtrak to get there and probably taxi to get around. NYC is a hell hole of CCP. Jim

    1. And probably felt pretty safe with what seemed like limited exposure--as most of us would.