Thursday, April 2, 2020

Covid19 Testing : Top Ten/Bottom Ten States By Percentage Of Population

Here they are. I got these from Scott Gottlieb's Twitter feed:

Note that the two most populous states--California and Texas--rank in the bottom ten and that among the top ten are several states that rank toward the bottom in population. Which tells you that as a nation the US has a long way to go.


  1. Good chart, a bit terrifying.

    Texas is not as bad, but still needs work. They are testing varies in the past week between 1600 to 9600 a day. Infected positive rate is around 10% per day. Seems like the Coronavirus is growing faster than their testing, which is a story in most of the US. We probably need to be doing 5X to 10X as much testing to catch up, since Coronavirus is so wide spread.

    CA is in much worse shape... Around 2,000 tests per day, and still a HUGE backlog of 60,000 of so tests. CA is at 37% positives.

    US has been around 100,000 tests per day for the past week, no growth in the number of tests.

    NY is now up to 18,000 tests a day! Wow.

    Each state has probably only detected about 10% of those infected.

    I am surprised their is not more screaming about what bad shape California is on testing. My guess is they hope the stay at home order will solve everything.

  2. Mark - you are very welcome and thanks for your helpful posts on CoronaVirus.

    More on the CA SNAFU, and who put together the site I use for my analysis:

    Scary that a person the author knows has been waiting more than 15 days for test results. It matches what I read in another comment on another site, I think Althouse.

    1. It's clear that testing is becoming more important all the time.

  3. From CTH today:

    ♦ STRESS LEVEL – The healthcare ‘system’ per se, is expending an awful lot of time on mitigation efforts. As Dr. Birx noted: the current negative test rate for coronavirus among those showing symptoms who are tested is 94 to 98 percent. That means of all the people taking coronavirus tests, 94/98 out of 100 are symptomatic (they are sick) but they are not infected with coronavirus. They are normal flu cases.

    Our healthcare “system” is expending an incredible amount of resources on a mitigation effort. According to Dr. Birx and the current U.S. test results, 94 to 98 percent of those mitigation efforts are not engaging with coronavirus. They are dealing with regular flu (perhaps a strong flu).

    If you extract the mitigation effort from the overall effort, the current stress level on the healthcare system doesn’t seem to be overwhelming. What is stressing the system is a coronavirus mitigation effort with a rate of 94 to 98 percent testing negative.

    Are we hearing reports of packed hospitals in Texas and California?

    Part of a very detailed article on why Sundance has serious doubts about Fauci’s motives.

    1. I saw that quote of Fauci and was frankly nonplussed. It was extremely stupid--obviously stupid.

      He's talking pie in the sky stuff at this point--claiming that the 'ultimate gamechanger' will be a vaccine. But as Michael Osterholm has pointed out--and he's the guy who in 1980 said don't hold your breath for an HIV vaccine--when he's optimistic he thinks they may have a vaccine IN 18 MONTHS. That's when he's optimistic.

      The notion of a shutdown until we maybe get a vaccine is nuts. We need ways to deal with this, and Chloroquine+ is by far the most practical way at this stage. It could buy us time and allow for a more flexible approach. Fauci being a wet blanket on that is stupid, too.

      The most charitable explanation is that he's totally captive to the usual bureaucratic thinking: We can't get out of this box, it's the only way to do things is staying in this box.

  4. Another side of tests from an American Thinker article on how misleading New York’s COVID-19 death statistics are:

    The problem starts with the fact that the highly influential statistics from the Big Apple paint a false picture of what is actually happening.

    In New York City, the death of anyone who dies who tests positive for COVID-19 is counted as a coronavirus death. This is the case even if the coronavirus failed to play a significant role in the person’s passing or illness.

    This calculus violates established scientific standards.

    Brit Hume of Fox News read about New York City’s unscientific methods in a Twitter thread initiated by a thoughtful user named Adam Townsend (@adamscrabble).

    Hume tweeted April 1: “Very informative thread. Explains why NY’s Covid 19 fatality numbers are inflated. They don’t distinguish between those who die with the disease and those who die from it.”

    A medical doctor once explained this critical distinction to me.

    Arguing against ordering excessive tests for his patients, he said that plenty of old people die who have cancer present in their bodies. Sometimes they don’t even know the cancer is present because the growth is tiny and slow-growing and doesn’t affect them. As they age, they die of some other cause even though they do in fact have cancer. When they die, it is not counted as a cancer-caused death because the cancer cannot be said to have killed them.

    And the NYC “statistics” are playing a large part in what is being done across the country.

  5. It's time.

  6. To be Devil's Advocate:

    Consider that perhaps California and Texas have accidentally stumbled onto the key insight. You keep the hospitals from being swamped with COVID-19 patients by simply strangling the testing results themselves.

    A lot of data is coming out of Italy that the fatal mistake was admitting COVID-19 patients into the hospitals everywhere in Lombardy. New York and New Jersey did the exact same thing. I wouldn't completely dismiss the possibility that the major vectors of infection at this moment in time are doctors, nurses, and testing samplers.

    Ray, California has pretty strict rules for getting a sample taken, much less actually tested- same as New York. I called into the Tennessee Department of Health, and here you can get a sample with just a fever. We have slowly dropped from 11% positives to under 8% as testing has continued.

    1. It is possible that medical personnel, unless they're very careful, could become disease vectors. That appears to have been part of the problem in Italy--no protective measures were taken, perhaps on the mistaken impression that this was "just the flu."

      OTH, I am not aware of any evidence that Covid19 patients who are not seriously ill are swamping the hospitals. From what I've heard, hospitals won't take people until they're seriously ill.

      I'm not aware that a positive test gets you admitted to hospital--in fact I'm quite certain that isn't the case at all.

    2. Mark, New York's hospitalizations for COVID-19 are multiples of the people they claim to have in the ICUs. So, clearly, they are admitting people who aren't seriously ill. Yes, they claim to segregate such patients, but the very fact that the medical personnel there and elsewhere (Google Vanderbilt Medical Center) are getting infected means they are passing the virus to the other patients they deal with.

      This idea that one can be careful and not contaminate the non-COVID patients is idiotic when expanded to all the people working in the hospital. Murphy's Law applies here in spades.

      Additionally, just watch some of the videos of the people in line getting sampled- do you really believe these people taking the samples are 100% changing their gloves every time they sample someone new? Do you really believe these people are changing their gloves with proper technique between sampling different people?

    3. Texas has hospitalized 1 out of 25 positives. New York has hospitalized 1 in 5. California is worse in ratio, but then they have less than 10% of New York's positives.

    4. I'm not a doctor so I can't speak to why the medical staff in some states are admitting more than in others. However I can say that "seriously ill" and "in the ICU" are not the same thing. The fact that NY, by your numbers, is only admitting 20% of positive testers is evidence that serious consideration is being given to who gets admitted and who doesn't--not evidence that positive testers are being admitted indiscriminately or that healthy hypchondriacs are taking up valuable space because doctors in NYC can't tell the difference. We'll just have to wait and see how the situation in TX develops. And it is developing.

  7. Some Youtube humor for these dark days. You have to pay close attention to get it, though.