What few if any have noticed is that in 2016 the electoral college prevented 3 out of 3,141 counties with about 5% of the electorate and population from picking the president.According to the New York Times election results,
Hillary Clinton received 2,868,519 or about 2% more than President Trump out of the 128,838,731 votes the two major party candidates received.
The county by county vote totals from the Times show that in 2016 the electoral college saved the US from more than one or a couple of state[s] picking the president.
In 2016, Clinton won Los Angeles County, Calif., 2,464,364 to 769,743, or by 1,694,621 votes.
She also won Cook County (Chicago), Illinois 1,611,946 to 453,287, or, by 1,158,659 votes.
So Clinton’s margin in just two counties, L.A. and Cook, was 2,853,280, just 15,239 votes short of her 2,868,519 vote plurality nationwide.Now maybe this story would be neater, if Clinton’s plurality came from just two countries. Still the facts are those 15,239 votes must be made up by a third county. There are a few counties with a Clinton margin greater than 15,239 votes in 2016, but the one with the third-greatest Clinton margin in 2016 was New York County (Manhattan), New York, where she won 579,013 to 64,929 or by 514,084 votes.
That means Clinton won L.A., Chicago, and Manhattan by 3,367,364, or, by 498,845 votes more than her nationwide 2,868,519 plurality.Put another way, without those three counties President Trump would have had an almost half million (498,845) vote plurality in 2016. This Trump plurality would have come from California including San Francisco less L.A. County; Illinois, less Cook County; New York including Brooklyn, the Bronx and Queens less Manhattan; plus the other 47 states and Washington D.C.
Now you can see why it's so important for people even in Blue states to get out and vote. The popular vote matters for the sake of legitimacy in the public mind. Non-voting is a vote for revolution.
ADDENDUM: This probably explains Trump's trip to CA. Yes, the trip is a sign that Trump believes he's doing very well in the electoral college count--that would be the only reason he could spare time away from the battleground states. So, that's all to the good. However, it's also a sign that he understands the importance the national popular vote could hold for a second term--as a talking point. It would be huge for Trump to take that talking point away from the Dems and appropriate it for himself.
So, his trip to True Red Newport Beach, CA--hasn't voted for a Dem in 57 years--may not have had a chance of flipping CA. That's not the point. The point is to get out the conservative vote and run up the GOP popular vote. To do that he has to go to vote rich CA. However, there are plenty of non-voters still across the country who can accomplish that, too.
And if I'm a Republican in Cook County, Los Angeles County or New York County in 2016 why would I even bother to vote? In most races down ticket there wasn't even a GOP candidate to vote for...Nor did Trump ever waste resources bothering to campaign in those counties.
ReplyDeleteUnder the Electoral College system (and I know this is impossible for Mrs Clinton to accept) the popular vote is meaningless. Trump could have campaigned in California in 2016 and gained more votes, perhaps hundreds of thousands more, but campaigning there would have distracted him from campaigning in...and ultimately winning...Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Orange Man smart. Crooked 'Lady'...not so much.
I recall a story from 2016 to the effect that Trump had wanted to campaign in CA and was advised by the 'smart people' not to bother. It was cited as an example of how out of touch Trump is. Eh, not so much. The electoral vote may decide the election, but the popular vote does matter. It should never be simply conceded based on a handful of metro areas. There are enough non-voters to overcome those popular totals.
DeleteOf course every concerned citizen should vote this year...and vote for Trump. Every vote counts.
DeleteBut should Trump absolutely focus on winning the EC?
Absolutely!
The President had to run across an interstate and hop a fence to get to the speeking engagement, if memory serves me correct. Maybe Orange County. It was about the time "Chokeahontas" and other paid leftist agents started blocking highways by chaining themselves to vehicles.
Deletecontext for my last comment: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3502123/Soros-Justice-Fellow-three-arrested-blocking-road-Trump-rally-Arizona-claims-sent-ICE-surname-Gonzalez.html Soros Justice Fellow among three arrested for blocking road to Trump rally in Arizona claims she was sent to ICE 'because her surname is Gonzalez
DeleteMark, I've read and re-read your original post and update. I think we agree. First, win the EC. Then, don't stop. Win the popular vote and take away the Dem talking point. But let's not stop there, either...Win the Senate and take back the House...
DeleteAnd then let the indictments fly!
@Cassander. I’m one of those Cook Republican voters and I WILL still vote. Hope petticoat Durban loses too.
DeleteLast week on his radio show, Mark Levin said that his guest on his Sunday evening television show would be Rudy Giuliani. Levin said he had scheduled Giuliani before he had learned about Hunter Biden's computer.
ReplyDeleteLast night, however, Levin's television show was pre-empted. The 8 p.m. broadcast was pre-empted by a Trump speech in Nevada, and the 11 p.m. rebroadcast was pre-empted by a re-run of a Greg Gutfeld show.
I wonder what happened.
The chyron during the Trump rally stated it would be rebroadcast in full at 10, which it was.
DeleteFull show at this link:
Deletehttps://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/hold_on_to_your_hat_hunters_hard_drive_rollout_this_week_is_going_to_unleash_a_whirlwind.html
They pre-emoted Gutfeld and he was on at 10.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a little more GOTV efforts in red portions of blue states could also help the House. Nothing works better for GOTV than a Trump rally.
ReplyDeleteIt's as if the Dems learned nothing from Trump's victory in 2016. His rallies and presence in states drives people to vote. Meanwhile, Biden is hiden for the rest of the campaign. Even if the mainstream media will not cover the corruption issue between now an election day, the effect is Biden is not actually campaigning while Trump is literally everywhere.
Yes.
DeleteBiden is not actually campaigning, but even if he was, how much diff would that make?
DeleteHearing him isn't much more interesting than is watching paint dry, and if he gaffes, it could be calamatous, so I see why they hide him.
Your analysis is correct but it is important to know Trump was there for a private fundraiser, not a rally.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm aware that Trump has actually raised a phenomenal amount of money in CA. Still, it took some planning to make sure those people knew when and where to be. It counts for a rally in that important sense--a photo op, news bite.
DeleteThe electorial college baffled me when I was younger. It took some hard core reading to fully understand both the brilliance behind it and the serious dangers of a democracy. The two subjects go hand in hand.
ReplyDeleteThe more recent popularity of the subject is more like a propaganda driven talking point. Their going to use every angle no matter yesterday's stance to "get Trump". If he wins both popular and electoral they will just change the subject to something else suiting.
A real subject on voting would be abolishing the 17th amendment and stopping this revolving stupidity of electing senators by popular aka democratic vote. The states need their power back in DC, that missing system check has killed us.
17th and income tax amendment (?): daggers at the heart of our constitutional order. Both prog initiatives passed by the states in a comatose moment.
DeleteI'd settle for Gibbons v. Ogden, 22 U.S. before the 16th (income tax) if were making a wish list!!!
DeleteIf you could pull back the interstate commerce portion it would end the majority of what the fed does.
Mark, the best work ever on the Electoral College was done by the late MIke Uhlmann, who single-handedly saved it once before. Your readers may wish to Google him. MIke taught American politics and constitutional law at Claremont until his death one year ago.
ReplyDeleteSomeone should note that those three counties (especially LA) let lots of illegals vote and that LA probably had massive vote harvesting, such that their numbers were greatly enhanced by likely vote fraud.
ReplyDeleteSo Trump's claims about illegals voting....not so crazy after all. Probably just need to focus a deep dive investigation into a handful of counties to prove it.
Delete