There was a fascinating article on the election yesterday that I read but didn't go with, because there was other news going on and, well, we all know the polls are voter suppression tools targeted against GOPers. However, here is that article now:
Dems in Absolute Panic As Early Data Shatters Narrative in Key States
Here's how the article starts--quoting Politico:
Up until this weekend, the Democratic victory narrative has been this: Dems will outperform in early and mail in voting. Republicans, leerier to mail-in voting, will opt for in person voting and will outperform on election day. However, in the end, the in-person voting will not be enough to overcome the massive early voting numbers by the Democrats.
This weekend that narrative shattered in some key states. It’s absolute panic.
Politico’s lead story today contains this revealing quote about many anxiety-ridden memos in Democratic offices:
“Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos and bracing for a long two weeks.”
Right. They've been living in a fool's paradise.
Shipwrecked crew makes a similar point today, also quoting Politico to conjure up the state of abject panic in which the Left finds itself:
Politico out of the Gates to Get the ‘We Saw It Coming First’ Story of a Trump Win That Seemed Impossible
SWC hammers home his point about Dems living in a fool's paradise (my term) by referring to an article from a year ago--October 2019. The article--Democrats fear more Trump Voters in Wisconsin--points out that there was ample reason in 2016 that should have warned Hillary that Wisconsin was never in the bag for the Dems. It's all interesting for election junkies, but here's how SWC concludes, with a really telling quote that slams anyone who thinks that Trump somehow maxed out his base in 2016:
Here’s the nightmare part that was recognized by the author and political analyst last year.
[W]hat if Trump represents not a last gasp of cultural and racial revanchism but a new wave? What if the trickle of white men who voted for the first time in years in Wisconsin in 2016, despite widespread predictions that Trump’s candidacy was doomed, is followed in 2020 by a wave of previously nonvoting white males who conclude that Trump’s brand of tribal aggression is at last something worth voting for?
The universe of nonvoters is vast. Nationwide, 4 in 10 of those eligible did not vote in 2016. According to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, more than 21 million nonvoters in 2016 were non-college-educated white men, Trump’s base. In Wisconsin … 459,000 non-college-educated white men didn’t vote in 2016. Trump won non-college-educated white men nationwide by an astounding 50 points. A modest rise in their turnout in key states in 2020 could swamp the Democratic nominee.
This dynamic is not limited to Wisconsin. This dynamic is why Pennsylvania is not really in play even though the press needs to pretend it is in order to keep Democrat hopes alive.
And this is also the point of the demographic information the Trump campaign has been pumping out about the Trump rallies over the last 4 years. The campaign has eagerly sought out and obtained ID information from rally attendees--for GOTV purposes. The have also regularly highlighted to the rest of us how many of those attendees--remarkably high percentages--are not part of the usual GOP base (already in the bag for Trump) but are registered Dems or non-voters. But we all know that non-voters who go to Trump rallies will be almost surefire Trump voters come November. And the Trump campaign is taking no chances, with a huge outreach program.
Tomorrows dump by Bannon will have the pics to protect the public. Looks like they are by passing the FBI and getting this out there ASAP.
ReplyDeleteThis makes sense, imo. The political arena is different than the legal arena. In this election season, the political arena should be front and center.
DeleteHonestly I hope both he and Giuliani have kill switches for the content in place. There is just no length that I would doubt the enemy would go to. If the FBI shows up to "chat" with them, it needs to be recorded and in the public record within the day.
DeleteFrom the toptradeguru article:
ReplyDelete"As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs is suppressing the college vote. On college campuses across America, during a normal election year, many of the social events are tied to campaign events for mostly Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs."
Exactly as Larry Schweikart prophesied several months ago - at the time he estimated 1.5 million college kids were lost to the Dems, but now he's raised that to 2.5 million.
Makes you wonder about their (Dem) strategists...
Frank
All true, what you say. A small problem in the overall for me is some of the terrible candidates the Republicans have running in the Senate: Collins, Ernst, Gardner, McSally, Sasse. I'd like them all gone. These are not the sorts of candidates who will bring out the conservative vote. Apart from Sasse (an insufferable ass), who will probably win, there's a better than even chance the others all lose.
ReplyDeleteOnly thing that might be able to save them is a DJT red wave. Fingers crossed.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/20/trump-resistance-plans-mass-mobilization-after-election-to-shut-down-the-country-if-biden-doesnt-win/
ReplyDeleteYes, preparations are being made.
Tom S.
Does anyone know whether there are any pateiots in Loudoun county VA I can connect with in case this madness spreads outside of DC?
DeleteIn New Hampshire, the leftist terrorists are apparently threatening to burn down people's houses if their trojan horse loses. That's just the way they roll. The nice thing about it for gun owners is that they've just given you legal grounds for justifiable homicide. If leftist dirtbags were telling me to update my home insurance and prepare to be attacked, I'd say update your life insurance and prepare to be shot dead.
DeleteIsn't it amazing though that there are no, easily recognizable conservative groups where we can network and organize? Yes, churches but rax exempt issues and other limitations.
DeleteWhat a call yesterday Mark , after thinking on it, yes your right a person must tell the police and then inform the public of a danger, and BAM!!! Do you want to be that news station that the tried to Hide, Protect or Suppress a story about a person that could be a DANGER to the public. This will be out the bag tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWhat has ABC News been caught covering up this time?
DeleteTell me what's gonna happen tomorrow when these pics drop and the American people find out this guys still on the streets, and the FBI had all this info for months?
ReplyDeleteThe eternal pessimist here... hey-ooo... so what happens if those early voter numbers in favor of Pubs result in less of them on election day where they tend to show up more?
ReplyDeleteFollow the link in EZ's comment, directly below:
Deletehttps://joeisdone.github.io/
It explains.
Intereactive maps of some swing states showing how Dems are doing relative to projected VBM numbers needed to win:
ReplyDelete>> https://joeisdone.github.io/ <<
Check out the comic book version on the site.
I have written several times now over different sites in the last 3 months- the Democrats seem to have made a huge strategic error in trying to get their voters to "mail it in". Mail in voting isn't as easy as going to the polling station, signing in, and filling out a ballot. Just getting the ballot to mail in is a process in most of the states, and those states where they mail them to you unsolicited are already in Biden's column- the rest of the states, you have request the ballot, and the procedure isn't just filling it out and mailing it it- these are legal documents that have witness signatures and special double envelopes. I just can't imagine that the typical Democrat voter is more capable of doing this procedure than the typical Republican voter.
ReplyDeletePeople tend to take the path of least resistance when faced with a task- that path is actually voting in person, either early or on Election Day, but the Democrats have so frightened their own voters with COVID, that I would not be surprised to find that overall Democrat participation drops by 10 million votes overall.
If Rudy and Steve had any honest intention they would just dump this data like wikileaks rather than the big porn production they are attempting to turn this into. The egos on these guys and their self promotion kill me.
ReplyDelete4-5 years of email and 25000 pictures would take millions of eyeballs to soft out in 2 weeks time.
Let the reddit and 4chan kids do their thing. Let Sundance and others do their thing, let Applebaum do his thing with the images. Let the metadata guys do their thing and bury this Russian crap.
But for God sakes... Get out of the way already.
No, I think the way Bannon is doing this is the best way, String it out , spread it among different publication and make the Main Stream Media look at it for as long as they can, before long the DAM will break, and i'm pretty sure that will be tomorrow !!!
DeleteDid Breitbart just tee it up for the next dump after tomorrows dump. Nice pic Joe, wait you never meet with Hunters business partners. Kazakhstan.
DeleteI agree that the constant drip is the way to do this. We already got the benefit of Twitter and Facebook overreactions/censorship. Whenever you can get your enemy to overreact, and to do so prematurely, you win.
DeleteThey also are able to get a head start on the narrative. They can boil it down to its essence which is already rather complicated because of all the threads to the story. I could see a hard drive worth of information taking three weeks to get to where we are in one week.
I like the expression food for election optimism.
ReplyDeleteDid Rudy G. go to the Delaware PD yesterday to make sure the escort was gonna be safe before Rudy does his interview dump tomorrow morning on Marie Bartolomeo's show tomorrow morning?
ReplyDeleteMy 3 likely scenarios:
ReplyDeleteTrump wins like 2016, bags the electoral, wiffs the popular.
Trump wins like 2016, bags the electoral, barely wins popular
Trump wins it all going home “hugely”
I suspect the first 2 are more likely and lean towards #2
I truly do not see a Biden win. He is not inspiring, period. Being anti current president alone does not get you the presidency and that is all he legitimately has to offer. Now, if you want a communist revolution, then that may get him a win ...maybe.
No matter what happens, cities will burn, people will be hurt or killed.
"Dear neighbor, you have been identified by our group as being a Trump supporter. Your address has been added to our database as a target when we attack should Trump not concede the election. We recommend that you check your home insurance policy and make sure that it is current and that it has adequate coverage for fire damage. You have been given 'Fair Warning.'"
ReplyDeleteRepulsively Yours,
Harris-Biden 2020
Just one reason why you don't tell pollsters, of you beeing a Trump supporter.
DeleteOn that note:
DeleteComedian who traveled country speaking to voters says polls don’t reflect "unprecedented support" for Trump
"The silent majority is alive, well and growing in America — and they are staying silent or flat-out lying because they’re afraid they’ll be attacked or canceled by the left if they speak out," Young wrote.
"I think we’re gonna see a lot of folks in the media cry a lot more," he said
https://tinyurl.com/yylsrvaz