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Friday, October 16, 2020

UPDATES: Polling News Up First

Here's Item Five from Don Surber's morning highlights. The Trafalgar Group poll tries to adjust for the "shy" Trump voter factor, and had excellent results in 2016:


ITEM 5: The Trafalgar Group got all the battleground states correct last time.

No one else did.

Its latest polls show President Trump is up 2 in Florida, down 2 in Pennsylvania, up 4 in Arizona, up 3 in Ohio, down 3 in Wisconsin, and up less than a point in Michigan. This would put [Trump's] Electoral College vote at 275 with Biden at 263.

I would take it. 


Meanwhile, I like the chances of Rudy's Revelations having an impact. As Mark Anderson points out at AmThinker, Rudy has the advantage over everyone else (except the FBI): Rudy has seen the evidence. He can elicit reactions and bring out new revelations to match the reactions--and to Trump them.

Buckle up: Hunter Biden laptop scandal may be about to get a whole lot worse

BRIEF UPDATE: Per the Washington Examiner, 68% of 2016 Obama --> Trump "swing" voters currently intend to vote for Trump again. The reasoning is interesting and illustrates that some people really do think a bit before voting. A reason that kept cropping up was: Kamala Harris. These people don't want her to be president. They're also fair minded, which sets them off from Dems:


... notably, while the media has put the blame for the expanding coronavirus on the president’s desk, swing voters are far more forgiving and give him credit for fighting it.

“Criticism of President Trump’s pandemic response has become a centerpiece of the Biden campaign; however, most of our swing voters don’t blame the president for the negative impacts of the coronavirus. They believe this is an unprecedented situation and President Trump is doing the best he can and as well as any other president would have, following the advice of experts,” said the survey provided to Secrets.

"It’s notable that despite nearly half of our Obama-Trump voters being 'less confident now' or 'still not confident now,' many of them are planning to vote for President Trump anyway. They generally believe he is working hard to solve the problem and the coronavirus situation isn’t his fault. They believe our country was doing well before the pandemic," said the survey.

And most think they are better off under Trump. “The good news for the Trump campaign -- in stark contrast to swing state polling showing Biden ahead -- is that swing voters credit the president for the strong economy pre-pandemic. Even with the impact of the pandemic on their lives, most say they’re better off now than they were four years ago. He is like no other politician they have experienced in their lifetime and they believe he is working hard and standing up for our country,” said the analysis.

 

Obviously Trump would like to bring the other 32% back. There's time.

UPDATE 2: The Cookie Poll!

It's being conducted by a bakery in Montgomery County, PA--a county that went heavily for Hillary (58%), even more heavily than for Obama. It's populous and home to the wealthy Maine Line area of suburban Philadelphia. The bakery claims it's cookie poll--based on candidate themed cookies--has accurately predicted the winner for the last three election cycles. This time Trump is winning 3-1, and the bakery is being swamped with orders:


This year’s sales, however, are unlike anything the bakery has seen during the last four election cycles.

Owner Kathleen Lochel tells Fox News the idea originally started "as a joke" back in 2008. (Lochel's Bakery)

“People are going crazy for them," said bakery owner Kathleen Lochel in a statement to Fox News, adding that the shop usually only sells a few hundred each election.

Since debuting this year's cookies, however, Lochel’s has already sold thousands of the treats — and demand doesn’t seem to be dwindling anytime soon.

...

Lochel’s is now instituting a six-cookie limit for all walk-in customers. The bakery has further announced that it would only accept advance orders of 100 cookies or more.

...

"So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1," she told Fox News on Friday morning."So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1," she told Fox News on Friday morning.

 

17 comments:

  1. Good article at AT. I listened to the link to Giuliani's Youtube. Like a prosecutor laying out his case, we have just seen the introduction.

    I hope Trump can land the victory on election day. Already mainstream media has allowed the story to break through, but they are giving cover calling it Russian disinformation. But it would have to be Russian, Ukrainian, Chinese, and Iraqi disinformation because the crimes committed were all over the globe--anywhere Biden was made the point person for the Obama admin.

    The real shocking question would be why hasn't the FBI/DOJ done anything about this? The obvious implication is that the corruption runs deep.

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  2. I'm a little confused about the texts being on Hunter's laptop. Why would there be texts on it? My texts are on my phone, not computer. What am I missing?

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    1. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=texts+saved+to+computer&t=qupzilla&ia=web

      Probably done by people who text alot and need to refer to them for convenience--easier on laptop? Just guessing.

      Delete
    2. On a Mac (which Hunter's laptop apparently was), if you are signed into iCloud with the same Apple ID as you use on your iPhone then the built-in Messages application will stay in sync with texts you receive on your phone.

      During the day when I'm on my computer working I'll send or reply to texts from my laptop rather than my phone because I can type a lot faster and more accurately on a real keyboard.

      Delete
    3. Verizon has an app, Message Plus (Message +) that let's you log in to see and respond to your texts on a Windows PC. And they are probably not the only cellular provider that has that. Wish my current provider (Spectrum) did. And if it's doable on a Windows PC, it is just as likely doable on a Mac. And certainly beneficial on a MacBook or Windows laptop since you can have them handy wherever you are.

      -Chuck

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    4. Thanks- seems pretty dumb if you're up to no good. But Hunter doesn't seem that bright...

      Delete
    5. @ atxnfo

      First we have to recognize that the definition of "up to no good" is different for the political class. what Deplorables call corruption a career politician calls business as usual. Joe may understand the optics but I have no doubt that Hunter, having been raised in that environment, can no more comprehend the right and wrong of the situation than he can give up crack and hookers.

      Codevilla is right, but it is more than just who you have dinner with. What is normal at the dinner table becomes culture for one's children and will define their behavior/choices for life and in turn will guide their children. This is how civilizations die. Not with a whimper, but with a, "please pass the salt," amidst a story of a shake-down, hustle, or how I cancelled someone's life at work that day, wink, wink, nod.
      Tom S.

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  3. Mr Wauck
    The computer is an Apple MacBook, if setup the texts appear on it as well as an iPhone & iPad. My texts show up and are stored separately on all three, deleting off one doesn’t delete them off the others

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  4. Thanks to everyone for the info re texts!

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  5. https://libertyunyielding.com/2020/10/16/feb-5-2020-a-date-of-gop-infamy-if-trump-loses-senate-shifts/

    A surreal post by Myra Kahn Adams, a supposed real Republican, bemoaning the failure of patriotism among Republican senators to oust Orange-Man-Bad last Feb so that Mike Pence could lead the GOP ticket and, "...successfully stepped in and ma(k)e a valiant attempt to unite and heal the nation."

    I expect to see a deluge of such drivel between now and election day.

    She's like a dresser who has made a career as part of the Broadway show "Cats" circa September 2000, in a panic that the show is not only closing, the closure might be permanent.

    This ties to Mark's post concerning Davos Man. Antifa are the beaters of the Nerge, whose purpose is fear and confusion; Never-Trumpers are whisperers of stability/safety, a return to "normalcy", if the prey will only run this way. What the Never-Trumpers never say out loud is that their's is a false hope, the circle of beaters is complete, and inevitably the archers will come forward. There is no fleeing to safety. Deplorables either break the circle now or never.
    Tom S.

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    1. https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2020/10/16/did-gop-sen-ben-sasse-just-commit-political-suicide-n1063538

      As further evidence. What a self-serving tool.
      Tom S.

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    2. McCain, P Ryan, Flake, Corker, Romney, the Bushes, now Sasse...who else? Who's next?

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    3. Burr, Rubio and Sasse are all on the SSCI. The other GOP members of the SSCI are Jim Risch, Susan Collins, Roy Blunt, Tom Cotton, and John Cornyn.

      I would have thought (based only on observation) that Tom Cotton is clean...what about the others?

      And then there are Mark Warner and the Dems...

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    4. As a Texan I wouldn't trust Cornyn as far as I could throw him.
      Tom S.

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  6. Also, with an iPhone, the entire contents of the iphone are backed up regularly via itunes. Every time I connect my phone to my mac, it does a full backup. I have personally used iphone backups to brows and search my many years of stored text messages.

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