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Sunday, October 18, 2020

Quick Update On Polling

I'm heading out on Sunday morning, but here's a very quick heads up: Andrea Widburg has an encouraging blog regarding the polls. It's really an analysis of voting demographics in many respects, so there's a lot of information: 


Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong


She actually has 15 points, with lots of information under each point. However, I want to draw your attention to #8, which explains why the Biden information is probably very important and why I said recently: China, China, China. China is an issue that will get people who never vote--or who never voted Republican--to get out and vote for Trump:


8. Trump’s fierce fight against China is paying off. Vice News, to its credit, looked at the Iron Range in Minnesota (you may remember Mayor Robert Vlaisavljevich’s speech at the Republican convention) and discovered that the formerly true blue Democrat region is all-in for Trump: [video]

I predict that the recent revelations that Biden is in China’s pocket will accelerate that trend, given that the Iron Range jobs went to China.


There's something else I meant to say, but I've forgotten.

ADDENDUM: Ah, I just remembered what I'd forgotten. It's simply that I've seen two polls that show a decline in support for Biden as well as some positive movement for Trump since the Hunter Biden laptop story broke in the NYPost. Naturally, the polling doesn't include the "shy" Trump voters, so any movement at all probably magnifies bad news for Dems.


14 comments:

  1. Spot on, Mark. In many ways it seems like Trump's entire candidacy and presidency is/ has been about China China China.

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  2. "There's something else I meant to say, but I've forgotten."

    Yes! Just glad to see I'm not the only one! ;-)
    Tom S.

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    1. If you heard the sound of distant thunder it was merely my wife rolling her eyes when I showed her this and told her, "See, It's not just me." :-)
      Tom S.

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  3. https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/17/memo-biden-campaign-manager-polling-shows-trump-neck-neck-us-battlegrounds/

    Would that polling have been before the Hunter laptop information hit the fan?

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    1. Probably. Because:

      As of 10/17 "She’s been beating this drum all week"

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  4. So Maria Bartiromo brought up the issue of three laptops on her show today. I didn't really think too much about this when I heard the original story about how the tech repaired some laptops. So whose were the other laptops? Bartiromo says the rumor is they may be Devin Archer's and Hunter's psychiatrist's? If one was in fact Devon Archer's, whoo boy would that be a whole new trove of evidence. I thought I read that one of the computers the tech perhaps could not recover the data. But, it is possible to recover data from hard drives that are dead. A tech repair shop like Biden used would unlikely be able to do that data recovery themselves, but there are plenty of specialty services that can do the work. Having done this myself, I know it is possible to recover much if not everything from a hard drive that died.

    Meanwhile, Biden is hiding all through the run up to the election.

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    1. Right. So the way I heard it--and I could be wrong--is that there were three laptops with water damage. One was a total loss. One was a loss as a functioning computer but the data could be recovered. The other was good to go after a bit of repair. So, two out of three, the data was recovered.

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    2. If I were Giuliani, I'd pretend one of the three laptops was unrecoverable, to bait the Bidens, and MSM sycophants, into making denials that can be blown away by the data on the third laptop.

      I can't prove that's what's going on, but it would be a hell of a head fake.

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    3. Adam Housley says he has spoken with the computer guy & his family & tweeted this 2 days ago "I think there were three computers and he was tasked with putting all the info onto one hard drive. I’ll work to get clarification...tho it’s all coming out. Again..a ton of people now know the details."

      As a computer guy myself, if your job is to extract data from 3 computers and put it all on one, unless you have very sophisticated disk-cloning HARDWARE, you will have to use normal operating-system utilities to copy the data from the 3 computers onto the new. The new computer will create new "meta-data" (creation-date) for each copied file.

      You will wind up with "meta-data" that destroys the original creation-date of the files. Here's a file I have, originally created 2018-04-01, but since I've copied the file around, the "meta-data" says it was created AFTER it's original creation date (which is shown in LastWriteTime).

      FullName : D:\Pictures\Switz.20180401225113.png
      Extension : .png
      CreationTime : 5/6/2019 10:55:16 PM
      CreationTimeUtc : 5/7/2019 5:55:16 AM
      LastAccessTime : 7/16/2020 10:25:51 PM
      LastAccessTimeUtc : 7/17/2020 5:25:51 AM
      LastWriteTime : 4/1/2018 11:14:11 PM
      LastWriteTimeUtc : 4/2/2018 6:14:11 AM

      Sorry for the computer-geek stuff. But Democrats are screaming "meta-data!" hoping to confuse.

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    4. make three partitions on a new drive, and clone (image) each old HD to a separate partition.

      That preserves file metadata, doesn't it?

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    5. Yeah that's one way somebody being very careful to preserve every bit of the complete original DISKs could do, to allow for forensic analysis, but not what a computer-repair guy would do. Not to worry, though, the FBI has surely "lost" the original disks by now.

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  5. The timing on the trip to the repair shop would have been about the time he and Hallie Biden were breaking up. It’s anyone’s guess who all of the three laptops belonged to (assuming multiple members of a household). We have two Mac laptops going on our work table all the time. And two more in dead storage upstairs. We had at least one accident with liquid that hit both of our active Macs.

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  6. Pop! Goes the weasel. Sing along....

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