I know that some, maybe more than some, readers are down because of the polls showing Biden up by--what is it, now, 20 points? That's what those polling firms are trying to encourage--discouragement in Trump voters.
However, Don Surber has an "Erie" feeling. It's a longish but, as usual, highly readable analysis of what's going on, which I highly recommend. What I want to do here is simply post two election maps. The first is Kevin McCullough's. McCullough has had an outstanding record of predicting the look of the electoral college map, going back to 2006:
The next map is the one that Surber prefers--his own:
Read the entire blog. It's full of Surber's shrewd observations. Such as:
Real Clear Politics says Biden averages a 7.1% lead in the polls in Pennsylvania. The last poll to show President Donald John Trump ahead in Pennsylvania was in May. So why did Yahoo just post a story, "In campaign's final stretch, Democrats claw their way back in Pennsylvania"?
If Democrats are that far ahead in Pennsylvania, why is the media saying he is clawing back?
A lot of people are depressed by the news that Durham's investigation is unlikely to produce either a report or indictments before the election, but there will be some very newsworthy declassification revelations coming out in the next two weeks. In addition, Antifa/BLM may well toss in a few additional riots and window-smashing campaigns in big city suburbs to help clarify the upcoming election choices. Last, one candidate is actively campaigning in front of crowds numbering in the tens of thousands, and the other can't draw flies to a dung pile.ReplyDelete
This isn't rocket science. There's a good reason why the forecasting maps look the way they do.
Oh, I forgot to mention one other item. Very likely Amy Coney Barrett will become the next Supreme Court Justice before the end of October. That will turn out a huge number of base voters for the GOP.
In any other campaign that video of Biden saying that voters "didn't deserve to know" whether he'd pack the court would have been a campaign ender.Delete
Boy I’d like to see somehow ACB become Chief Justice. Is that possible?Delete
I liked the video where Biden misreads the teleprompter and says he support a $15 million dollar and hour minimum wage.Delete
"In any other campaign that video of Biden saying that voters 'didn't deserve to know' whether he'd pack the court would have been a campaign ender."Delete
Guaranteed. 100%. Historically it would be remembered among the top 10 most shocking presidential campaign-ending gaffes. Fortunately for Biden, we live now in the land of leftwing activist media make-believe where democrats are well-intentioned and infallible and evil republicans are relentlessly "pouncing" on them.
@ Rob S.Delete
The glaring truth is that, if the Harris/Biden ticket wins, $15 Mil an hour will probably fall short of a "living wage". Can anyone say Zimbabwe.
These fake polls will not discourage Republican voters; they will only increase their motivation.Delete
What they will do is cause many Democrats to stay home because they think it's in the bag for Biden. That worked out so well for Hillary in 2016.
Dems have taken so far a leave of their senses in their power lust that if they could, tanks would roll in the streets to install Biden. Anything short of that, they WILL do. The Republic of the last 200+ years could well be lost for good.ReplyDelete
For me, the best prospects for dodging that outcome hinge on DJT being well ahead in c. 30 states on 4 Nov., and on Barr bringing bi busts vs. top Dems, soon enough to persuade a decent slice of moderate liberals (e.g. in the MSM & the courts) to stop doubling down, on support of what would be clear has been massive Dem criminality.Delete
If this happens by the time ScotUS votes (6-3 or better) to reject Dem BS on mail-in ballots etc.,
I'd hope for huge public backing, for DJT to take strong measures to spank the inevitable riots.
"would have been a campaign ender."ReplyDelete
"very newsworthy declassification revelations...."
Unless they're more newsworthy than the declassifications so far, such revelations won't move any major needles.
As good a Tell as any will be, whether folks like Mitch see such revelations as worthy of more than minimal comment.
"antifa/BLM may well toss in a few additional...."
Anyone *counting* on such events is likely grasping at straws.
Very newsworthy, as in proof positive that a cabal within FBI committed overt felonies in service to the goal of undermining the Trump campaign and perpetrating a fraud on the FISA Court. These were persons in a position of trust operating at the highest levels of the nation's premier law enforcement institution. That is no trivial thing, and it will be noticed by the public-at-large.Delete
"it will be noticed by the public-at-large."Delete
I can't assume that, but it's nice to see Newt on Watter's tonite, celebrating what he claims is adecent amount of MSM interest, in Biden's ducking of the Court-packing issue.
I would like to think Washington and Oregon would now be pink or a shade of purple, but I also think think that the folks there tend to not have issues with “peaceful” protests.ReplyDelete
For what it’s worth, in Texas, obstructing a roadway is could get you 180 days in county jail. Pedestrians do not have the right of way automatically.
As an aside, in Texas, you can be arrested for almost all minor traffic offenses and brought before a judge immediately (instanter), but that is the exception not the norm.
OR, WA, I was wondering along those lines too.Delete
y'know, if ya could just split those 2 states vertically rather horizontally, you'd have one helluva conservative state in Eastern WA & OR...I'm just sayin'Delete
Hotlanta, that is so true of just about every so called Blue state. Take away the uber blue cities and the rest is red. Even Maryland, NY, CA....Delete
People in Washington hate Governor Inslee. Loren Culp may have a real chance.Delete
A couple comments about Biden's most recent comment on court packing say it would normally be a campaign ender. It just might be. After so many refusals, this should be a campaign ad. Most middle of the road voters will not like that answer and will feel they deserve to know. Many people voted for Trump the first time just because they felt he was unapologetic about his positions and plans.ReplyDelete
Agree. Very much to Trimps's advantage. He's authentic, Biden is not.ReplyDelete
Do polls really discourage? I am addicted to politics and I am constantly searching for "feelers" among friends and associates but I never hear that as feedback. I hear rigged, BS, a joke, can't trust, don't care, but never discouraged, depressed, overtly concerned.ReplyDelete
It's a failing stunt if that's the case.
Personally I think the left uses them to bubble cast their group think from within their own walls. More of a self promoting facet of their belief system. This goes well to both protect their echoes and use afterwards to discredit the projected failures.
If you want a good ole pile of riots to break out again on Nov 4th your going to need that passionate genuine discourse and disbelief. Showing Biden down 10-20 isn't going to buy you the required shock factor.
Yes, that and it supports the cheat by mail narrative that Trump won the election day voting but Biden won after all the manufactured votes were counted. I mean, Dems still believe that Gore would have won Florida but for SCOTUS decision.Delete
Living on Cape Cod, I wonder why the Boston loco t.v. runs so many biden/harris advertisements?ReplyDelete
Because they are picked up in NH. NH lacks the number of broadcast network TV stations that Boston has, in fact, there is only one major network outlet in NH (ABC.)Delete
They also reach southern Maine, but not sure how important that is.
Maybe they’re scared out of their little Blue minds?Delete
Clarice Feldman writes a zinger this morning. Well-sourced, as usual. President Trump will have some high profile cleanups in his new term:ReplyDelete
Absolutely. Has to start cleaning house 11/4.Delete
Wow. Great article by Clarice.Delete
The Plot Against the President documentary movie has come out.
Based on Lee Smith’s terrific book…
This should be great! Maybe millions of Americans who can no longer read will have the patience to watch…and learn the truth...
I just finished watching this superb 90 min. documentary. It is riveting, even to me, who has read and watched just about everything there is on this subject.Delete
I stand in awe of Devin Nunes’ courage and integrity. The case against Adam Schiff is extraordinarily damning. He lied, and lied, and lied. There is much more.
If you want to watch it, go to vimeo.com or load the vimeo app on your device. Then click on vimeo ‘on demand’ and look for ‘The Plot Against the President’. It costs a few bucks but is worth it.
Best indicator may be where candidates are spending last bit of time. For Trump it seems to be PA. Biden went to NV?ReplyDelete
In Arizona, Biden had no one show to his rally.ReplyDelete
Don't forget that poll fraud can significantly cover for vote fraud. No matter how massive the mail-in fraud wave after election day proper, Democrats can just say that it's merely matching what the polls said would happen.ReplyDelete