Monday, October 26, 2020

Pennsylvania Polling Update

Not too long ago I did a post on Shipwreckedcrew's cogently argued call of Pennsylvania for Trump: Wow! SWC Has Called PA For Trump. SWC's argument was a bit math heavy. It relied on changes in voter registration as well as turnout over the last several election cycles. It all made very good sense.

Today a more traditional approach, the NYT/Siena poll, is pointing out problems for Biden in not just Pennsylvania as a whole but even in the city of Philadelphia. Accepting these polling results as accurate--and I can't believe that the NYT did not double check and then triple check these numbers--to my mind the results carry implications not just for Pennsylvania but for other states as well.

Sundance at CTH has dug into those results a bit, but he does it in the second half of a post that begins with a different theme. Here's what he found.

First, he focuses on this passage from the NYT story that should be a bit mind blowing for Dems:

…”Troubling for Mr. Biden in a different way is the fact that he has not yet matched Mrs. Clinton’s share of support in Philadelphia proper. Averaging the results of the two recent polls, he has the backing of 73 percent of Philadelphia voters, down from 83 percent for Mrs. Clinton in 2016. According to the Times/Siena poll, Mr. Trump was supported by 24 percent of Philadelphians, nine points ahead of his exit poll numbers in 2016.”

That's ... mind blowing. Biden down 10 points from Hillary--in Philadelpia proper--and Trump up 9 points from 2016. Pennsylvania could be beyond the margin of fraud. That was a factor that worried Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly, who last week placed Trump ahead in Pennsylvania.

Next, sundance cites some findings that were featured at American Greatness this morning. The poll in question here--InsiderAdvantage--has a very high margin of error. Nevertheless, it shows a dramatic turnaround for Trump just within the last week. That was a week, of course, that featured two things: Trump's strong debate presentation and the Biden Inc. revelations. Once again, as seems implicit in the NYT sponsored poll, this poll appears to point beyond just Pennsylvania--a factor which the pollster explicitly notes.The pollster, Matt Towery (who predicted Trump's 2016 win) states:

“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”

Towery adds “Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”

American Greatness' Chris Buskirk then states:

Internals show Trump closing strong with over 65 & women. This poll had Biden leading 10 days ago. Results suggest that soft Trump supporters & previous undecideds are breaking for DJT.

Keep an eye on this.


  1. Because polls are only judged by their final analysis expect many to be flipping this week.

  2. Sean Davis, Bobolinski to be on Tucker tonight:
    It's coming, it's coming

    "According to a source familiar with the planning, Bobulinski will play recordings of Biden family operatives begging him to stay quiet and claiming Bobulinski's revelations will "bury" the reputations of everyone involved in Hunter's overseas deals."


    1. Well, then let me be the first to say this:

      Tony Bobulinski didn't kill himself.

    2. My guess he has info in hiding just waiting for that to happen.

      Rob S

  3. oops, that should be Tuesday night, tomorrow...


  4. Philadelphia voters are sick and tired of the rioting; and Biden has yet to condemn it. I suspect the Philadelphia Trump vote will be considerably larger.