Sunday, August 2, 2020

Will It Be Biden, Or Sanders, Or Who?

Up at RedState just now:

Dan Bongino@dbongino

Not a joke and not hyperbole - I’m hearing from people close to the situation that Biden’s cognitive decline is rapidly worsening and is becoming increasingly difficult to mask. The Democrats are going to have to make a decision soon.

6:48 AM · Aug 2, 2020

As discussed very fully at the link, it's all too plausible:

Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make

Just imagine the, uh, free for all if the Dems try to pull a switcheroo!


  1. My mom died of brain cancer, same thing that killed Beau Biden. Took 9-10 months (they'd given her a year tops); it isn't a linear decline. One day she was there with minor declines, next she couldn't talk in complete sentences anymore.

    I get the idea that his decline has moved the same way and has progressed faster than the DNC's timeline for arriving at a consensus replacement candidate. Remember that in 1944 Harry Truman was still opposed by some key DNC leaders and himself was refusing to accept the VP nomination. FDR still had the wherewithal to bully everyone, via the telephone, to nominated Truman. If there was a VP candidate everyone tentatively agreed on one night and Biden woke up the next morning unable to talk and say everyone fall in behind her....

  2. Couple this with Clinton henchman Joe Lockart testing the waters for Biden not to debate Trump recently on CNN. Perhaps a more coordinated effort with talking points will be agreed upon by the DNC apparatchiks soon that opts Biden out of any presidential debates. Of course that option would depend on Biden being able to form more than a few sentences together while reading a teleprompter when campaigning - for what that's worth.

    Then, if Biden is nixed from the ticket and a major battle is fought (how long that would take we could only guess) for the nomination inside the DNC will there be any presidential debates when a nominee is finally brought forward? And if it isn't Bernie, then...


  3. It HAS to be Michelle! She's the ONLY woman the Dems will be able to agree on. I'm sure Barrak and Valerie are working on her night and day, if she remains unconvinced that she should give up her life of leisure to take on the most difficult job in the world.

    There is only so much Barrack and Valerie can do behind the scenes and we all know how lazy she is. With the exception of the largely ceremonial position of First Lady, which allowed her to attend concerts and dinners that were planned by other people, she's only had highly paid no-show jobs since her marriage.

    Campaigning is hard work, even if she only has to do it for 3 months. I think debates would be completely beyond her, as they take preparation. Like Hillary, Michelle completely lacks the charm of her husband and does not take criticism well. They might have to hide her in the basement in Kalorama until November 4.

    1. For all those reasons I can't believe she'd do it.

    2. Rumors have been flying around for the past year that Barack is DESPERATE to get back into the WH. So, he needs someone he can control completely. Michelle is his best bet because Valerie is ineligible.

      Susan Rice, although she is truly Obama's creature, can't withstand even slight scrutiny. She would be destroyed by Trump because of her lies about Benghazi, "served with honor" Beau Bergdahl and her odd memo to file on 1/20/17.

      Michelle continues to top the list as The Most Admired Woman in the World, although I can’t imagine why - she’s an ugly, classless grifter. (Notice that there have been no trips to Hawaii for Christmas now that taxpayers aren’t footing the bill. I’ve also noticed that she hasn’t been sighted in Target lately.)

      Hillary, Kamala, Liz Warren and the others might have their own ideas and Barack can't stand that. He wants a third and fourth term to complete his destruction of this country. Witness his "eulogy" at John Lewis' funeral. If that wasn't a campaign speech, I don't know what one sounds like.

      Michelle would solidify the Dems because it would be clear to everyone that Barack is Michelle's puppetmaster. If they can delay announcement of Biden’s VP oick until October, Michelle wouldn’t have to campaign very much and Barack would be right beside her. Michelle is the perfect October Surprise.

      Importantly, having Michelle on the ticket could get a lot of black voters back on the Dem plantation despite the fact that Barack did nothing for blacks and Trump has done a great deal, both economically and socially. It’s clear that most black people don’t support Black Lives Matter or the predominantly white “George Floyd” rioters, which must rankle Barack. The Dems need a distraction badly and, in my opinion, Michelle is it.

      The silence in the press about Michelle is deafening lately, although her name was bandied about freely as a possibility earlier. I think word has gone out to the press to shut up, hoping to lull Trump into complacency, although I don't think it's working. Trump isn't complacent about ANYTHING.

      I still think it will be Michelle. We'll see . . .

    3. @Anne

      Speaking of the Dem plantation (Can we do that?), I'm not sure Michelle appeals to all blacks. There's something too 'uppity' about her, although I'm sure we can't say that either. ;)

    4. Valerie ineligible? American citizen born of American parents who happened to be employed in Iran. I consider her to be ineligible because she is corrupt to the bone, but that never held a Dem back.

      As for Mooch, she would love the accolades, but never be able to pull it off. She is lazy, physically and mentally. Does anyone know who votes for Most Admired Woman thing? I don’t. Wasn’t Hillary called that a while back? Sounds meaningless.

      The latest I heard was that there was a swing back to Kamala. Another one woman disaster with baggage that far outweighs her.

      They have a real mess on their hands… “A good thing” as Martha S would say..

    5. Just had to look up that Most Admired Woman bit to see what it is all about. It’s a Gallup poll! Have a look…

    6. One of the best - if not the best - essays I’ve ever read on Obama - from historian Victor Davis Hanson. And yes - he mentions the possibility of Moochelle… but not until he goes through a detailed list of Obama misdeeds...

      The New Old Obama

    7. "So, he needs someone he can control completely."

      You have BHO's relationship with VJ and MO exactly backwards. He was never more than a front. VJ is old school communist cadre hardwired, by birth, into the top echelon of the Chicago CP structure. Frank Davis sent BHO to her to groom. She is his handler. If I remember correctly she intro'd him to Michelle. There is a reason beyond mere personal fondness she moved into the WH with them and lives with them now. He doesn't go to the can w/o asking "mother may I" of her.

      VJ will not get into the race because someone might accidentally commit journalism and actually vet her.

    8. @Bebe

      "One of the best - if not the best..."

      You are right. VDH is magnificent. If only he could convince the Dems as completely as he does me.

  4. My hypothesis is that the leading VP contenders have agreed to accept the decision of the DNC based on the assumption that Biden is still of sound mind and body. Now that they're realizing that he is in the last year of his life and that the VP pick will be POTUS they are no longer willing to accept the DNC's decision. The Dem's Presidential primary has been reopened... in August!!!

    1. Interesting idea! Makes sense of putting off the Veep pick.

  5. The big problem for Dems I think is the VP pick, i.e., there doesn't seem to be anyone out there worth a crap. If they could get someone who had, or could come to have, broad enough appeal, they could then arrange an excuse for Biden to have to exit without having to admit the real problem is his dementia (he’s ill, he had an accident - whatever - there are ways to do these things, and the Democratic Party knows just the people to do them).

    With a sufficiently appealing VP pick, the Party could maybe reason that what matters most is beating Trump and this VP pick is the one with the best shot of making that happen. But if the VP pick is a dud, then the Sanders crowd would presumably have a hard time buying that argument. I can’t imagine such a VP pick actually exists, so that brings us back to SWC’s position that they’ll probably (though not certainly) have to tough it out.

    If they do tough it out, then the worse condition Biden is in, the more drastic the measures that Dems will have to take in order to be able to still beat Trump. Aside from the ballot hi-jinx guaranteed to come, I don’t know what other hoaxes and October surprises they have cooked up. But cooked up they are, and they will come, and I don’t know how anyone could think this won’t get uglier than anything most or any of us have seen in our political lifetimes.

    1. Completely agree. There isn't a man or woman on the Democrat side that improves upon Biden. They are screwed.

  6. "uglier than anything most or any of us have seen in our political lifetimes."
    Don't worry, it won't be that bad.
    The DS has *enough at stake*, that it'll do whatever it takes, to ensure that everyone who counts plays ball, or else.

    1. "everyone who counts plays ball"

      I don't understand what you mean here. Though I'd like to :)

    2. Idea being, that the DS will make it obvious to all real powers in the Dem party, that these folks dare not blow off the requirements of the DS, without receiving an Offer they Can't refuse.
      All DC players, incl. the DS, own a finite number of Chips they can cash in on.
      The DS has *so much* at stake this time, that now *is* the time for them to cash in those chips, even if doing that empties their stash.
      Hoping that helps.

    3. Thanks for that. Yes it helps, and I definitely don't disagree. At all. But I don't think I'm contradicting you in saying I was just referring to the ugliness of the campaign, the dirty tricks, the cheating, the gaslighting, the censoring, probably violence and some death and injury, as well (accidental or otherwise; with LE involvement or otherwise) - right on down the line.

      When the stakes are this high and one side plays as dirty as Dems/media/etc are certain to, things get ugly. I can't think of an election in the last 50 or 60 years that was uglier than what this one all but promises to be, and that was my original point.

      And I can't see DS working against Dems and Dem campaign ugliness before Dems win the election, though maybe I'm wrong - I often am. After that is a different story, though I have no idea how that story might go.

      Lastly, I could also totally be letting my imagination run away. In fact, I hope I am and we end up seeing something that isn't really too terribly scary or ugly at all. I hope for that badly, but I just don't feel it.

    4. "I can't think of an election in the last 50 or 60 years that was uglier than what this...."
      Quite so.
      My point is, if BLM etc. play Loose Cannon with such stuff, the DS will waste no time sending them an Offer they Can't refuse.

    5. And, while I can't see DS working *against* Dems, I'm not sure that the whole DS is wholly in their pocket.
      My sense of things is, that sizeable parts of the DS prefer the Dems, but so much that these parts will let the Dems torch the whole place, to keep power.
      THat's why the Dems may have some need to tread carefully.

      These DS parts have some limit, beyond which they'll
      react fiercely vs. Dem excesses.

      I'll quite wager, that the signatories (esp. old Pros like Chomsky & Steinem)of the Harper's letter inked it, on the understanding that parts of the DS had their backs, if Biden wins.
      Otherwise, it should've been obvious, that inking it would've been signing their death warrants, effective 21 Jan.

    6. No arguments from me, aNanyMouse. More specifically, I do agree with what I take to be your basic point that DS is in a very real way reactionary (or anti-revolution or counter-revolutionary or whatever).

      Life has been good for them for a very long time, they aim to keep it that way, and neither Rs nor Ds will get in the way of that if they can help it (I think I hear you saying). But then again, the Dems know this, and while they would take some hits as they purged the DS good and thorough, once the purge was done, there'd only be the Dems' hand-picked DS 2.0 to keep the secrets after that.

      Let's just hope we never have to put any of these thoughts to the test.

      Trump 2020.

    7. Sounds right, Brad.
      Another thought:
      When Chomsky & Steinem inked the Harper's letter, they may've done so, on the understanding that parts of the DS had their backs, if Biden wins;
      or, they were all-but sure that the Dems would win, and get to unleash the DS.

    8. Typo: "sure that the Dems would NOT win (and get to unleash the DS).

  7. This is the biggest story in electoral politics right now but if you watch the MSM......crickets.

  8. OT but fwiw, Rasmussen has Trump at 51-47 approval and a 40-41 strongly approve/strongly disapprove.

    Not an outlier (within Rasmussen poll itself) since the trend has been steadily heading this way for a while.

    Daily Tracking here:
    Trend (History) here:

    1. I just can't buy the notion that the American people will elect someone in Biden's mental condition. It does tell you a lot about how Dems view their voters, however.

    2. There is ZERO energy on the Democrat side. 12 people show up to hear Biden and half of them are holding a camera or microphone. Compare that to anything Trump does. No contest. The media (including the polls) keeps saying its a close race, but IMO it will be a blowout in favor of Trump. They can't cheat if it isn't close.


    4. @Mark

      "I just can't buy the notion that the American people will elect someone in Biden's mental condition."

      Don't overestimate the knowledge or intelligence of a substantial portion of the American electorate. While this study is slightly dated, there is no reason to believe (I would submit) that the American public knows more or has become smarter over the last six years.

    5. @Mark, I do agree that in a sober conversation the vast majority of Americans would reject someone in Biden's condition.

      But I think that is the wrong filter. There are two other filters that I believe take precedence over it.

      First, how strongly do Americans feel about removing Trump from office. I can tell you that during the day I work among the DS and in the evening I come home to TDS NeverTrumpism. The feeling and conviction, whether warranted or not, is intense and widespread (per the above 40/41 numbers.) People actually believe a demented president would be better than Trump, so warped has their thinking become due to MSM-Dem lies.

      Second, can enough Americans be convinced that Biden is not declining, or at least not much. Given the strong feelings against Trump and Biden's own history of verbal gaffes, this is not as risky a gamble as it might seem.

      They only have to get him across the finish line. Of course, we're now hearing that it's conceivable that he might not make it. As dumb as Dems seem to be sometimes, they also always seem to have plans within plans. Contrast this with the 'Stupid Party.'

      For me, the real interesting question is if he gets elected and survives to the inauguration: Do they 25A him and acknowledge their fraud, or do they deep six him and frame that in order to permanently shut out the conservative voice. In my opinion, the question really answers itself. They use it for all it's worth. It's the Alinsky way.

      The issue of whether his decline will lead quickly to death, similar to his son, is a wrinkle in all of this. My uninformed opinion is that his decline is more or less normal and not fatal in and of itself, but what do I know?..

    6. Question: How did your filter work in 2016, since it would have worked similarly? Back then the same people you're citing now would have believed it was better to have a serial criminal in the WH than Trump, right? How did your filter work?

    7. @Cassander

      Fortunately, you don't have to be smart or knowledgeable about government to recognize that Biden is non compos mentis.

    8. @Mark

      But you do have to be paying attention.

    9. The Dems desperately need the most passive possible methods for voting in order to goose their numbers. They have to send the ballot out without it being asked for, they have to go around and gather them. They are counting on uninformed people voting for who they are "supposed to" vote for because the talking heads on TV told them so. The Dems need low information voters.

    10. @Mark

      "How did your filter work?" in 2016.

      Trump's margin in 2016 (WI, MI, PA) was razor thin. We need a better strategy than razor thin.

      I'm hopeful we (will) have one.

    11. But that doesn't address my overall point--that anecdotal filters are unreliable. mistcr openly states that his filter is based on the views of "people" who are avowedly Deep Blue. If I based my views on my overall environment, a fairly Deep Blue area, I'd have predicted a Hillary win. And I'd be predicting a Biden win. An historical analysis strongly suggests that polls on voter approval and voter enthusiasm strongly favor Trump. There is also reason to believe--speaking of razor thin margins--that 3rd party voting will not be nearly as detrimental to Trump this time around.

      And in defense of Trump, his strategy has never been "razor thin." It has been to grow the electorate. It worked in 2016 and there are reasons to believe it's working again. Including the views of Dem professionals.

    12. That's where I am, too, that despite the media’s best efforts, in time there will be visuals of Biden's, as you say, non compos mentis, that do make their way to people's eyes & on into their brains. This is way stronger a negative than many imagine, as it really does strike the fear chord in people, i.e., having someone like THAT leading & protecting the nation is *scary.*


And I'll again preach what the MIH choir already knows: the Durham stuff MATTERS. Outside Dem hardliners, the anti-Trump vote is more than anything else a product of social stigma and belief in or at least suspicion of his Russia stooge guilt. If it can be shown well enough the latter is crap and the guilty party really is the Dems and their lying, crooked media, then the former - the social stigma against supporting Trump - should be much diminished along with it.

      And that's a lot.

    13. I was convinced that the serial criminal would win in a landslide.

      I was wrong about the landslide, but the majority of voters (disregarding fraud) did indeed vote for the serial criminal. 63 million people voted for her, Mark! And they think we're obviously crazy and deplorable for not voting for her!!

      But the world has changed a lot since just four years ago, to say nothing of four months ago. And my understanding of how these things go has been changing as well.

      You seem affronted by my post. I assure you I meant no disrespect. I'm really just grappling with a quickly changing reality. It's one thing to predict how a handful of Obama judges will act, and quite another to predict how 150 million voters will act under the strain of the virus, militant anarcho-Marxists on the march, and the praetorian guard of a deceitful media.

      Biden represents EVERYTHING that is politically wrong in America today, from lack of civility (Bork and Thomas) and pandering to China to economic cluelessness and government corruption. Trump has obviously shown that his policies are the right framework balancing business and worker concerns, his end-the-wars and America-first foreign policy is heading in the right direction but needs another four years to take root and bear fruit, and he very obviously wants to unify but the MSM-Dem alliance won't allow it.

      There's no doubt in my mind about how the election SHOULD go, and my doubts about how it WILL go may merely be a reflection of my situation behind enemy lines.

    14. mistcr, on "during the day I work among the DS and in the evening I come home to TDS NeverTrumpism."
      If your DS position is near DC, I'd quite expect a slew of TDS.
      My bet is, that if Barr/ Durham can't make big busts (incl. Pleas) by voting day, TDS will bring Dems to the polls in droves.
      But, if those guys can make heads roll, many Dems will be too depressed to vote, while Repubs rush to the polls, from rage at the DS scam which dominated the past 3+ years.

    15. @mistcr

      I was afraid you'd think I was affronted, but I assure you I was not. My criticism is that your filter filters out the "normals" in favor of the minority--distressingly large, but still a minority--of committed Deep Blues.

      Yes, indeed, "the world has changed a lot since just four years ago." There is much info out there to suggest that it has changed in favor of Trump: enthusiasm, approval, approval among blacks and Hispanics, voter registration stats, collapse of 3rd party support on the right, etc. Add to that the overwhelming majorities in favor of Trumpian positions and opposed to the hard Left antics--approaching 80%.

      I see no reason for defeatism and I believe that most of it that I see is based on uncritical acceptance of mainstream polling--the same outfits that predicted the Hillary landslide that wasn't. And that convinced you that what didn't happen would happen.

    16. "much info out there to suggest that it has changed in favor of Trump".
      Add to that a (huge?) intangible, the backlash vs. Cancel Culture, this getting press with the Harper's letter, but, I believe, really in the air since (under-age!!) N. Sandmann's "punch-able smirk".

      If Barr/ Durham get it done, Repubs' rush to the polls (from rage at the DS scam) will likely be helped by Evangelical pastors, and Ortho rabbis, pushing congregations into "social Events of the Year" trips to the polls.

    17. @Mark

      Your points about basing "my views on my overall environment" and against defeatism are valid. It's easy to lose sight of what normal looks like in the land of crazy.

      I've wondered how Trump came to be, first, a republican, and then president. I heard recently that he switched parties multiple times in recent years. I haven't verified that, but it did serve to shake me from wondering how republican or how conservative he is to realizing that he is in reality redefining the electorate, or as you say "growing the electorate."

      If true, this could do much to marginalize Dems and BLM-Antifa for a few years. Maybe there will be a respite where we can catch our breath, but I can't imagine the MSM-Dem alliance going quietly into the night.

      This is good for the prospect of coalition building, but less good for prospects of balancing the budget and reducing the scope of government. Whole departments need to be shuttered, public sector unions disbanded, the 10th amendment reinvigorated, and the judiciary reigned in for me to believe it's anything more than temporary.

      If only Republicans weren't spineless and stupid...

    18. "Whole departments need to be shuttered, public sector unions disbanded...."
      If DJT wins w/o much dispute, and Durham thus gets to continue cleaning major house, we'll have much hope for decisive shifts in the Culture War, and, ensuing from that, progress on the issues you list.
      If pro-DJT types thus continue to dethrone GOPe types, the GOP brass may well become much less spineless and stupid.

    19. Regarding DJT, I haven't seen any indication that he is a small government guy. He tried reducing the budget but was soundly rebuffed, but his budgetary approach appears to be "I can negotiate better deals." Well, he can't negotiate every deal.

      Regarding the GOP, one can always hope. There are some encouraging individuals, but they have a loong way to go.

    20. @mistcr

      "I heard recently that he switched parties multiple times in recent years."

      I can understand that. And who can blame him?

      Ever since experiencing the huge disappointment of W...the unprovoked and illegal war in Iraq, the Bush budget deficits, and the Financial Crisis...followed by Obama's disastrous two terms...followed by the realization of systemic malfeasance by both the Dems, the GOPe and the Deep State in connection with the ascendancy of Trump (Mueller and Comey were Republicans?) have often led me to ponder which party, if any, reflects my values.

      I think that it will turn out that the genius of Trump will be a realignment of American politics to transparently reflect policies which resonate with a substantial number of Americans whose interests have not been well-represented by the legacy parties.

      As evidence, I will predict that Trump's policies will attract increasing numbers of blacks and other 'minorities' who will increasingly understand that the policies of the Dem Party and the GOPe are not in their best interests.

    21. @Cassander
      You're "realignment of American politics" is exactly what I was trying to express.

      I actually interpreted the story of his switching parties multiple times to mean he was searching for the opening that would give him the best opportunity to enact this realignment.

      But even if it was just disappointment... I switched to independent after W. And I switched back in '16 in order to vote against Trump in the primaries.

      Shows what I know...

    22. "... led me to ponder which party, if any, reflects my values."
      Yours, and tens of millions of middle class folks, who'd had it, with the brass of both parties biting Upper middle class crank for decades.
      As DJT drags the GOP into being the party of the middle class (and Yeomanry), the Dems confirm their slide, into being the party of the (Clerisy) Upper middle class and the underclass GibMeDats.
      To boot, the Dems are even betraying the black (Clerisy) Upper middle class, to the predations of the gangbangers.
      It's a helluva show!

  9. At some point, a "Weekend At Bernie's" meme will probably take hold within the general public, and that will be really, REALLY hard to overcome.

    As Jim Pratt gets at above (paraphrasing the Hugh Hewitt book, I assume), a blowout is hard to overcome through cheating.

    That said, it won't be for lack of trying: ever-worsening censorship, fake news & polling, new hoaxes & lies, Oct surprises, voter & ballot fraud, etc. Zero doubt about that.

    PS: And yes, for sure, it's clearer than ever how Dems view their voters.

    1. "voter & ballot fraud, etc.", and physically blocking access to polling places in pro-GOP pcts., e.g. via antiFa sit-ins, virus spread, etc. in those pcts.

  10. I find that too many, afraid to be disappointed, go for the negative. The worst case scenario. And then try to build a case for that. This seems to be far more likely on our side.

  11. About Bernie. Has anyone really examined his “platform”? Forget Socialism. He’s a bloody Marxist, which is why he has attracted the Squad - AOC and the other misfits who pal around with her. Would that really be a big seller with most of the American voters? Only if the ones who care about their lives, the ones who keep themselves educated, stay home...

    1. It appears increasingly likely that the hardest Left elements will cut up rough at the convention either to get their pound of flesh from the platform or in protest if they don't.

  12. Don't count out Bernie as the VP pick assuming Biden makes it to the ballot in November. I'm telling ya for party unity that will be the announcement coming soon.

  13. If Biden wins, he appoints Obama as his Chief-of-Staff. That's how Obama runs the country for four more years.

    1. Interesting thought, but too much of the country would rightfully go ballistic. And there's just no need. There are ways that achieve the same basic effect but without the enormous political downside of so transparent a ploy.