Friday, February 7, 2020

Is Alfred E. Neuman Clearing A Path For Bernie?

An interesting analysis by Jordan Weissmann at Slate--which underlines James Carville's recent statement that he's "scared to death." Weissmann explains why Bernie’s Supporters Should Be Thanking Mayor Pete, and it makes sense to me:

Sen. Bernie Sanders’ supporters should be thanking Pete Buttigieg right now. 
Sure, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, hogged the spotlight Tuesday night, declaring himself “victorious” before any of the actual results had been reported, and Sanders still very much appeared to be competitive. That move is looking ever-dodgier as the actual numbers have dripped in: Sanders not only leads the popular vote by a comfortable margin but is close to pulling ahead on Iowa’s traditional measure of “state delegate equivalents.” 
A bit of stolen glory, however, is really a small price to pay for the service Buttigieg is providing the Vermont senator’s campaign. Mayor Pete seems to be clearing Sanders’ path to the Democratic nomination by crippling their common rivals without actually carving out a clear route to win himself. 

Sanders’ campaign has always faced two key questions. First, could he consolidate the party’s left wing behind him, or would he and Sen. Elizabeth Warren undermine each other by splitting that vote? Second, even if Sanders could win the battle for the party’s progressives, would that be enough to overcome Joe Biden, who seemed to have a lock on moderate and minority voters? 
Buttigieg has helped on both fronts by sapping support from both Warren and Biden, whom his backers consistently list as their second choice candidates. His performance in Iowa pushed the Massachusetts senator to third and the former vice president to fourth. Next week’s primary in New Hampshire could very well be a repeat performance. Both Sanders and Buttigieg appear to be rising in the polls there. Meanwhile, Biden is sinking toward third, and Warren is in a distant fourth. 
If the final vote shapes up that way, it will be a dream scenario for Sanders. ... 
In short, Buttigieg is helping to consolidate the left and split the moderates, creating ideal conditions for a Sanders win. ...

It couldn't happen to a more deserving party.

1 comment:

  1. A thought: In 2004, the Dems looked in disarray with the Kerry candidacy, yet they rebounded smartly two years later and retook the House.

    There may be plenty to be pleased about with Trump and his fighting spirit, but there are a lot of holes in the Republican battlement. The down ballot races matter if he's to succeed.

    And if three years in he's firing Democrats that are hanging about trying to take him down from inside the fortress, well...the bench players need reinforcements/replacements from somewhere...