Codevilla: Nobody's Afraid Of Trump

I've highlighted several articles by Angelo Codevilla in the past months, mostly having to do with the Intelligence Community and with FISA in particular. This morning he has an article at American Greatness in which he addresses this question: Why are the Dem elites so afraid of Bernie Sanders and seem less worried about Donald Trump. Here's the link:

Intelligence and the Democrats’ Internal Affairs

During the past three years or so, the establishment has learned that Donald Trump barks but mostly does not bite. Nobody fears Trump. Bernie Sanders and his zealots are another story.

Codevilla's explanation for the state of affairs as he frames it is simple and sensible. Bernie and his followers know that they were screwed out of the 2016 nomination by the Dem establishment. They also know that the Intel Community was deeply complicit in the plot in favor of Hillary:

... in July 2016,  the FBI’s decision to take the DNC’s story at face value, not to press for examining the server, and not to investigate other possibilities for the leak—never mind Rich’s murder—was to shield the Democratic Party’s establishment against a threat more clear and present than the then-unlikely prospect that Trump might defeat Hillary Clinton. Looming over the Democratic Party at that instant was that Bernie Sanders’ people were on the verge of disrupting the convention and jeopardizing her election. 

The FBI’s collusion in the supposed hacking, its support of the narrative of the DNC-as-victim, rather than of the reality of the DNC’s fix of the primaries, helped cut the ground from under possible Sandersista protests. This would not be the last time that the agencies took sides in intra-ruling class quarrels.

The Dem establishment knows that if the Bernie faction gets control of the party, they will exact retribution. Bernie is therefore an existential threat:

Sanders’ takeover of the party, never mind possibly of the federal government, is something they know they can’t survive. That is because Sanders’ movement is composed of a large cadre of serious people, many of whom are admirers of the control systems by which progressive ruling classes have empowered themselves over the peoples of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. 

And let’s face it: Sanders did not choose to spend his honeymoon in the Soviet Union blissfully unaware of how the joint was run, or of the purges by which its masters had secured themselves against the party and the KGB. 

The Democratic Party’s establishment—very much including the intelligence and media combine—would be the first to experience the Sandersista regime’s delights. That, and not fear of Trump, is what explains their panic.

Makes sense to me.

Two additional points. Codevilla, unfortunately, doesn't go too far into justifying his assessment--which may strike many as harsh--of Trump's impact upon Washington DC:

That is why the ruling class’s establishment—intelligence and media included—seem more worried about Bernie Sanders than Donald Trump. During the past three years or so, the establishment has learned that Trump barks but mostly does not bite. Nobody fears Trump. Trump’s presidency notwithstanding, the establishment has done very well for itself. They can count on this state of affairs continuing under another such presidency.

Reading between the lines, it appears that Codevilla's assessment is based on Trump's failure to purge the Intel Community. I would make three points in that regard:

1. Trump has sought to govern within the established constitutional order, making changes that are possible within those limits, but gradually seeking to establish a consensus that may form the basis for further progress.

2. If Trump attempted a true purge the GOPe would unite with the Dem establishment and oust Trump--by hook or by crook. Trump has cleverly avoided that ultimate showdown, even maintaining an uneasy alliance with the GOPe through the Impeachment Theater. He continues to push the envelope at every opportunity, widening the Overton Window

3. While Trump has made progress in building support, he still lacks majority support within the GOPe. Thus, his strategy of speaking over the heads of the ruling elite, going to the people through the medium of Twitter and mass rallies. He continues to push the envelope at every opportunity, widening the Overton Window.

In all this Trump differs from the Sandernistas. The Dem establishment, after decades of undermining American institutions of culture and civic life finds it has created a tiger intent on devouring all in its path. In Codevilla's metaphor, the establishment is finds itself in the position of "mounting a tiger, and whetting the tiger’s appetite." If Sanders should somehow gain possession of the White House, unlike Trump he would have no difficulty in filling all executive positions with loyal and zealous supporters, eager to conduct purges and heedless of the destruction they would wreak upon constitutional and governing institutions--much less on individual persons.

Finally, I'll conclude with this Codevilla observation regarding the recent Intel Community fiasco that attempted to paint both Trump and Sanders as stooges of Putin:

Not only did the briefings give no evidence for the agencies’ conclusion about Russia’s preferences—they, and the media no longer deal in facts. Nor is the agencies’ confusion of their own opinions for facts even news anymore. 

Nobody who knows U.S. intelligence can imagine that any factual basis for such an opinion could exist. Where would such facts come from? U.S. agents in the Kremlin? A cruel joke! We have never had anybody in a position to know what Kremlin leaders are thinking. 

Intercepts? We have not been reading high-grade Russian cypher since the early 1960s. 

Rumor? Sure. It simply depends on what rumors the agencies choose to believe.

ADDENDUM: What I'm basically saying is this. Within the GOPe there is no majority support for "conservatism" as that term is understood by the mass of Trump supporters. In fact, the closest thing to a consensus in that regard would be the view that Trump's agenda must be thwarted. Should Trump seek to force the issue in a decisive manner, the GOPe would unite against him in a "bipartisan" effort to tame Trump--they would work with Dems against their president because many don't view Trump as their president. Within the Dem establishment, on the other hand, there is no real disagreement with the ideology behind Sanders. The disagreement is more one of tactics. The Dem establishment would never, under any circumstances work with the GOPe against a Dem president.