Briefly Noted: War In Ukraine--And Chicago?

I haven't tried to do the numbers, but it would be interesting to compare the casualty count in Ukraine's war in the Donbass with casualties in Chicago. As you'll see below, that speculation is NOT tongue in cheek. But here are links to closer looks at the two situations.

Ted Galen Carpenter has an analysis of the situation in Ukraine--and a warning. Years ago I made myself unpopular as a commenter at another blog by arguing strongly that 1) our encouragement of Georgia vis a vis Russia was stupid and irresponsible--including provocative naval deployments to the Black Sea--and 2) that policy was especially stupid because the US was not going to actually intervene on Georgia's behalf. Carpenter warns that the US may be cruising for a similar bruising. There is simply a limit to how many wars the US can juggle at any given time, and war in Ukraine would be at a totally different level than anything we've experienced for decades.

Joe Biden’s Ukraine Policy: A Repeat of George W. Bush in Georgia?

It is a bad idea for Washington to give its partners the impression that they have a blank to go to war and expect American forces to come to the rescue if the fighting goes poorly.

Carpenter, a senior fellow in security studies at the Cato Institute, begins by noting the extraordinary level of US rhetoric attacking Russia--and Putin personally--and encouraging Ukraine to adopt an aggressive posture toward Russia. He notes:

Ukraine’s government announced that joint military exercises with Ukrainian and NATO troops likely would take place sometime this summer. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that any deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine would force Russia to take “additional measures to ensure its own security.”

Russia appears to be positioning itself militarily to respond to all this sooner rather than later, meaning, sooner rather than waiting for the summer. This is all just incredibly reckless. Here's Carpenter's conclusion:

The parallels between Washington’s excessive encouragement of Ukraine and Bush’s blunder with respect to Georgia are eerie and alarming. Vladimir Putin’s government has given the West numerous warnings over the years that attempting to make Ukraine a NATO military client crosses a bright red line in terms of Russia’s security. The Kremlin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea in response to the U.S.-European Union campaign to help demonstrators oust Ukraine’s elected, pro-Russia government and replace it with a pro-West regime should have conveyed that message with great clarity.

Yet the [Baiden regime] seems intent to blunder onward. There is now the risk of two unfortunate outcomes from this approach: one bad, and one horrendous. The most likely outcome is a repetition of the Georgia episode, in which a country Washington encouraged to take a confrontational stand against Russia acts on an exaggerated assumption of U.S. backing, suffers a decisive military defeat and is humiliated, while U.S. leaders, for all their verbal posturing, prudently refrain from going to war. The United States would come away looking both feckless and irresponsible.

But one alternative outcome is even worse. There is a danger that the Biden administration concludes that it must honor the implicit commitment to Ukraine’s security and actually adopts a military response to an outbreak of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. It would be the ultimate folly, since it could culminate in nuclear war, but given the intense level of hostility toward Moscow evident in the [regime] and much of Washington’s political elite, it is a possibility that can’t be ruled out.

The [Baiden regime] urgently needs to rethink its Ukraine policy. Washington is issuing a security promise to Kiev that no sensible American should be willing to have the United States redeem.

As for Chicago, Zerohedge has a nice summary of that situation, replete with graphics and maps. As noted, what's really worrisome is that there's no realistic expectation that matters will improve as the weather warms. Traditionally, violence spikes in the summer:

The Chicago Police's Monthly Crime Newsletter shows the number of shootings in the metro area in March - and the number of shooting victims - jumped to a four-year high. .... 

In March, there were 233 shooting incidents and 298 shooting victims, the report showed. This compares to 146 shootings and 175 victims in March 2020, 136 shooting incidents and 165 victims in March 2019, and 136 shootings, with 151 victims in March 2018. 

Homicides in the Democratic stronghold city were up 33% in the first three months of this year compared with the same period in 2020. For the same period, shootings were up 40%. 

...

... some public health experts warn of a "perfect storm" of socio-economic collapse, virus pandemic, mental health crisis, and drug epidemic are some factors resulting in the wave of violent crime. There's also a community-based movement calling for de-policing that continues to widen the trust between the community and police. 

Just this weekend alone, seven [that was revised upward to eight] people were killed and at least 27 others wounded in shootings across the city. An uptick in shootings and violence could be associated with warmer weather trends as criminal gangs fight for turf. 

Data compiled by HeyJackass shows on a year-to-date basis, homicides, and shootings are significantly higher than last year. This is problematic ahead of the summer season when much of the killing occurs.

The closing of government schools is likely aggravate this situation for years to come, as gang activity has increased substantially with "youths" having nothing to do but roam the streets looking for trouble. In the meantime, Dem policy is to stoke hatred. What could go wrong? Plenty.