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Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Briefly Noted: War In Ukraine--And Chicago?

I haven't tried to do the numbers, but it would be interesting to compare the casualty count in Ukraine's war in the Donbass with casualties in Chicago. As you'll see below, that speculation is NOT tongue in cheek. But here are links to closer looks at the two situations.

Ted Galen Carpenter has an analysis of the situation in Ukraine--and a warning. Years ago I made myself unpopular as a commenter at another blog by arguing strongly that 1) our encouragement of Georgia vis a vis Russia was stupid and irresponsible--including provocative naval deployments to the Black Sea--and 2) that policy was especially stupid because the US was not going to actually intervene on Georgia's behalf. Carpenter warns that the US may be cruising for a similar bruising. There is simply a limit to how many wars the US can juggle at any given time, and war in Ukraine would be at a totally different level than anything we've experienced for decades.


Joe Biden’s Ukraine Policy: A Repeat of George W. Bush in Georgia?

It is a bad idea for Washington to give its partners the impression that they have a blank to go to war and expect American forces to come to the rescue if the fighting goes poorly.


Carpenter, a senior fellow in security studies at the Cato Institute, begins by noting the extraordinary level of US rhetoric attacking Russia--and Putin personally--and encouraging Ukraine to adopt an aggressive posture toward Russia. He notes:


Ukraine’s government announced that joint military exercises with Ukrainian and NATO troops likely would take place sometime this summer. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that any deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine would force Russia to take “additional measures to ensure its own security.”


Russia appears to be positioning itself militarily to respond to all this sooner rather than later, meaning, sooner rather than waiting for the summer. This is all just incredibly reckless. Here's Carpenter's conclusion:


The parallels between Washington’s excessive encouragement of Ukraine and Bush’s blunder with respect to Georgia are eerie and alarming. Vladimir Putin’s government has given the West numerous warnings over the years that attempting to make Ukraine a NATO military client crosses a bright red line in terms of Russia’s security. The Kremlin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea in response to the U.S.-European Union campaign to help demonstrators oust Ukraine’s elected, pro-Russia government and replace it with a pro-West regime should have conveyed that message with great clarity.

Yet the [Baiden regime] seems intent to blunder onward. There is now the risk of two unfortunate outcomes from this approach: one bad, and one horrendous. The most likely outcome is a repetition of the Georgia episode, in which a country Washington encouraged to take a confrontational stand against Russia acts on an exaggerated assumption of U.S. backing, suffers a decisive military defeat and is humiliated, while U.S. leaders, for all their verbal posturing, prudently refrain from going to war. The United States would come away looking both feckless and irresponsible.

But one alternative outcome is even worse. There is a danger that the Biden administration concludes that it must honor the implicit commitment to Ukraine’s security and actually adopts a military response to an outbreak of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. It would be the ultimate folly, since it could culminate in nuclear war, but given the intense level of hostility toward Moscow evident in the [regime] and much of Washington’s political elite, it is a possibility that can’t be ruled out.

The [Baiden regime] urgently needs to rethink its Ukraine policy. Washington is issuing a security promise to Kiev that no sensible American should be willing to have the United States redeem.


As for Chicago, Zerohedge has a nice summary of that situation, replete with graphics and maps. As noted, what's really worrisome is that there's no realistic expectation that matters will improve as the weather warms. Traditionally, violence spikes in the summer:


The Chicago Police's Monthly Crime Newsletter shows the number of shootings in the metro area in March - and the number of shooting victims - jumped to a four-year high. .... 

In March, there were 233 shooting incidents and 298 shooting victims, the report showed. This compares to 146 shootings and 175 victims in March 2020, 136 shooting incidents and 165 victims in March 2019, and 136 shootings, with 151 victims in March 2018. 

Homicides in the Democratic stronghold city were up 33% in the first three months of this year compared with the same period in 2020. For the same period, shootings were up 40%. 

...

... some public health experts warn of a "perfect storm" of socio-economic collapse, virus pandemic, mental health crisis, and drug epidemic are some factors resulting in the wave of violent crime. There's also a community-based movement calling for de-policing that continues to widen the trust between the community and police. 

Just this weekend alone, seven [that was revised upward to eight] people were killed and at least 27 others wounded in shootings across the city. An uptick in shootings and violence could be associated with warmer weather trends as criminal gangs fight for turf. 

Data compiled by HeyJackass shows on a year-to-date basis, homicides, and shootings are significantly higher than last year. This is problematic ahead of the summer season when much of the killing occurs.


The closing of government schools is likely aggravate this situation for years to come, as gang activity has increased substantially with "youths" having nothing to do but roam the streets looking for trouble. In the meantime, Dem policy is to stoke hatred. What could go wrong? Plenty.


21 comments:

  1. As to Russia, let's drop the pretense of a coherent regime policy. This is just another woke moment for us all to realize that the Deep State Kleptocracy has fooled us for years into thinking of Russia as a threat let alone enemy. The Kleptocracy is determined to start a war, that's clear. How badly we get our...handed to us remains to be seen.

    Kvetch

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  2. As to Chicago...a moment will come, probably sooner than later, when the inner city will burn itself out and the criminals and their Ploward Cliven enablers will push fsr out into the suburbs for more hosts to feed upon. Cities are becoming the penultimate cancer on society.

    Dishsauce

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  3. I'll bet that "As you'll below," was meant to be "As you'll *see* below,".
    And, that "to respond to all this soonner rather than", was to be "to respond to all this *sooner* rather than".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How you figure this stuff out ...

      Delete
    2. AmericanCardiganApril 6, 2021 at 6:09 PM

      Mouse is amazing!

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. Typos jump off the page at me, but if I understand what is being said, they don’t poke a stick in my bicycle wheel… I just keep on going.

      Delete
  4. We have legally been at war with Russia, via NATO, since roughly 2015. All of the salient details are laid out in this extremely thorough book - https://www.amazon.com/Loaded-Guccifer2-0-Following-Digital-Geopolitics/dp/B08MSZHMGP

    Almost everything we've experienced in the last 5 years can be tied, directly or indirectly, to this fact. Directly - Davos Mans' (of which NATO is His prime institution) hatred of Trump, every tiny aspect of Muh Russia (and associated 5 eyes perfidy), Impeachment 1.0, Snowden, Assange.

    The current sabre rattling is a natural consequence of this.

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    1. AmericanCardiganApril 6, 2021 at 6:11 PM

      Any Guccifer reference IMO is a Dem in disguise.

      Delete
  5. I wonder how much the focus on Russia, which should be, if not quite an ally, then certainly a friend of ours, is meant to distract from the very real, though still cold, war which China is waging against us, to the indifference of, and even in cooperation with, our ruling class.

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    1. Spot on. The ruling class seems to have been spoiling for war or some very, very near it since the whole “Russia Collusion” hoax was cooked up after Trump trounced The Monster.

      It’s all a head fake. We have common cause with Russia on several fronts, moreover they’re a “western”- style of people IYGMD.

      Think it’s being down to keep our eyes averted from the real threat which is China.

      Boarwild

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    2. Russia was our first friend, but sadly I don't think I can agree that we're should be friends now.

      Nevertheless, China is the natural ally, or model, of the globalists and Russia, if not an ally, could at least find common cause with the populist or nationalist.

      Delete
  6. Chicago will go the way of Detroit here shortly. Urbanization has its way of burning it's self out over time.

    Where Russia is concerned, Trump should just stage a very public intervention and directly contact Moscow... Because why not? 😁

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    1. Yeah - why not?

      Pull a John ‘Effin Kerry.

      Boarwild

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    2. And we're would finally get top test the Logan Act.

      Delete
  7. On Monday's "What are the Odds" episode there was a real intelligent conversation about the whole Russia and Ukraine issues. Barnes is a bit of a conspiracy spinner but damn does he nail it lately. In the episode they do talk about the Gaetz affair and I concur that it was a Deep State hit job being prepared but got blown up by the Gaetz's not following the script.

    I strongly recommend a listen to the podcast starting at the 54:00 mark about Ukraine and runs for 23 minutes.

    For fun listen to his critique of Obama from 52:00.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbB0HeGeVKE&list=RDCMUCWubnBV028_4rVoDPt7FpNQ&start_radio=1

    Spartacus

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    1. @Spartacus

      I watched Barnes' explanation of the Ukraine situation. It was interesting and informative, thanks for sharing. I would say that Barnes certainly does like to talk...

      FWIW, my take is that the Deep State/Elites/Globalists will never accept a 'nationalist' of any stripe, be it Trump or Putin or any leader of the Ukrainian Right.

      Not only because the philosophies and economics of nationalism are inherently in conflict with globalism, but because nationalism in the past in many places has often had dire consequences for left wing 'elites' who lose power.

      I suspect this fear motivates the Deep State and the Globalists and the Elites as much as 'power' and 'greed', the other prime motivators we have often discussed here.

      Delete
  8. Bill Clinton broke the U.S. promise to Russia that the NATO border would not move farther eastward than Germany. Now we're moving NATO right up to Russia's border, which is dangerous, insane sabre rattling. The U.S. should be cultivating Russia as an ally against global terrorism and as a trading partner. Instead, we are pushing Russia toward closer alliance with China.

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-bill-clinton-made-america-more-ambitious%E2%80%94-dangerous-17387

    https://warontherocks.com/2016/07/promises-made-promises-broken-what-yeltsin-was-told-about-nato-in-1993-and-why-it-matters/

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  9. Just want to remind everyone of how Hunter Biden was able to loot Ukraine's Burisma. The looting was facilitated by the Biden, Nuland, McCain putsch in 2014: Biden toppled Ukraine's democratically-elected president, empowered neo Nazi forces, started a U.S. proxy war with Russia.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/americas-collusion-with-neo-nazis/

    David Stockman:

    https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2019/11/12/the-ukrainian-influence-peddling-rings-a-microcosm-of-how-imperial-washington-rolls/

    No coincidence that Biden chose Victoria Nuland as Under Secy of State. They have unfinished business in Ukraine, namely massive aggression. Like everything Democrats and NeoCons do, they project their malfeasance onto their innocent target. It is Biden and NeoCons who have been and are manifesting aggression toward Russia in Ukraine--essentially promoting genocide of ethnic Russians in the Donbass.

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  10. Look at the other end of Asia today with a US carrier strike group and Japanese navy in tow...

    I'm starting to bet that China retakes Taiwan by the midterms.

    I don't think we could muster a worthwhile response in ether end of the globe and NATO seems to be peeing itself as usual.

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