I noticed a few interesting items this morning that I'll try to connect. They all relate to voter attitudes that much of the mainstream polling may actually be trying to obscure--just as in 2016.
On the general topic of polling attempts to suppress voter enthusiasm among Trump or potential Trump voters, Don Surber pointed out the fundamentals yesterday--538 must want to blow it again538 must want to blow it again:
Right now, N8 Ag [Nate Silver] gives the Zombie Biden a 10-point lead in national polls over President Donald John Trump.
This is based on 22 recent polls.
16 are polls of registered voters. Such polls are meaningless because about one-third of registered voters won't vote.
Worse, two polls are of all adults. Nearly half of all adults won't vote.
But not only are these not polls of likely voters, they are national polls. As we learned in 2000 and again in 2016, the national vote does not always predict how the Electoral College will vote. That is because we elect presidents by states and the District of Columbia.
The state polls are tricky because they require a knowledge of the voting patterns of the states to collect the data from likely voters. This makes the polls more expensive. 1,000 calls to get a good sampling of Utah for a state poll is 100 times as expensive as making 10 calls to Utahns for a national poll. (Utah has roughly 1% of the U.S. population.)
And he goes on to provide plenty of examples of how this approach got things wrong in 2016.
This morning there's an article out that looks at the big picture among Dem voters. It's based on a YouGov poll of Dem voters that studied support for Biden. It turns out that 42% of Dems identify as "moderate/conservative/very conservative"--yeah, I know: Go figure. But they happen to be the largest of the three groups. What's remarkable in the findings is this:
Note three things.
First, the group that turned out highest in the category of supporting a candidate other than Biden or not planning on voting at all was the "Very Liberal" contingent, at 8%.
Second, among those Dems identifying as "Moderate or Conservative," only 81% claimed to be ready to vote for Biden. Without getting into other important factors, consider what these may do once they start seeing more of the cognitively impaired Biden--numbers of that group could easily slide into the "Won't vote" category, or worse.
Third, fully 12% of those self proclaimed "moderate or conservative" Dems were actually willing to share with the pollsters that they intended to vote for Trump. They could easily have claimed to be undecided, but, no, they were decided. Considering what we've all heard about "shy Trump voters," that has to be very bad news for Dems.
Next up, Gary Weiss tweets:
When Trump won northeast Pennsylvania in 2016 (which Obama had won TWICE) there was hand-wringing and it was analyzed in books and articles.
Well folks, it looks like the Democrats' lurch to the left is hurting them there. How about that.
5:02 PM · Jul 6, 2020·
The linked article, Democrats' registration advantage declines in Lackawanna, Luzerne counties, repays a careful reading. Of the two neighboring counties, Luzerne county is considered a national Bellwether--and in 2016 it went for Trump by 19 points after twice going for Obama. The article goes into all the numbers about declining Dem registration and surging GOP registration, fueled by Dems switching over. But the reason for this is what matters, and could matter nationally:
County Democratic chairman Chris Patrick scans lists of registered voters and sees longtime Democratic friends registered as Republicans. He thinks the party’s move to the left and Trump’s rise hurt.
“I talk to a lot of people who I know are lifelong Democrats and they’re like, ‘I’ve had it. This Democratic Party isn’t the party that my parents belonged to. The thing has gone, far left, progressive.’” Patrick said. “Some people buy into that. I think what’s happening is a lot of longtime Democrats are more moderate, more maybe a tiny bit right-leaning conservative instead of this far-left liberalism.”
The article concludes with a lengthy quote from two crossovers, which confirms what the Dem chairman is saying:
Jenkins, a property manager who switched to Republican last August and voted for Trump four years ago as a Democrat, said she wants a candidate and party “that will work for the greater good of our country or state to bring back jobs to America, bring back jobs to the district, a party who will defend the nation.”
“I just don’t think the Democratic Party was in line with those beliefs any more. They’re not even aligned with enforcing our laws any more,” she said, referring to protests that saw statues torn down or vandalized. “Everybody’s shooting from the hip, especially right now, instead of thinking things through,” she said. “Our country’s being torn apart.”
Gegaris Jr., a groundsman at a quarry, a part-time pizza deliverer and owner of a real-estate investment and management company, was a lifelong Democrat before his switch also last August. He said the party’s drift to the left convinced him.
“Over the last five to 10 years, I’ve hung around with a lot of conservative Republicans and had numerous debates and realized that I’m more conservative than I am liberal,” Gegaris said. “I like to hunt, I like the outdoors. I’m a strong supporter of the 2nd Amendment. I like entrepreneurs and small business and I just think that the Democratic Party is succumbing right now to special interests.”
He said he sees Democrats too much in bed with the big pharmaceutical and health care companies and trial lawyers. With a master’s degree in health care administration, he said he believes in health care as a right, legal immigration and working toward a college education, not getting one for free.
When you put all that together with Brad Parscale's reports of large numbers of registered Dems showing up or registering for Trump rallies, a picture emerges that shows Trump's path to re-election.
"were actually willing to *share with the pollsters*" really matters, in the age of Twitter Mobs, and (more recently) threaten-at-home mobs, of the sort which are tormenting that StL lawyer.ReplyDelete
What Barr/ Durham do really looms large.
If they're forced to duck bringing justice, expect enough Righties to be so demoralized, that they stay home, or vote for someone to DJT's Right (e.g. Kanye?), enough to cost DJT key states.
But, if DoJ can bring major justice, the apparent drift now, of moderate Dems (and Indies?) toward DJT, could well become an utter stampede.
The Dems' only chance to overcome the impact of such a stampede would be, via an orgy of Ballot Harvesting, which would jump-start secession mov'ts across the fruited plain.
"which would, *in rather short order*, jump-start secession mov'ts across the fruited plain."ReplyDelete
We're "awaiting" because Barr seems like the only game in town. Another path exists, but "there be dragons." So we'll wait. And one way or another, we'll see.ReplyDelete
Which path do you speak of, where "there be dragons"?Delete
I happen to expect more dragons from the DS, aimed at whatever path seems opportune.
Then there is this article from Fox News on Trump fundraising linked below. Does a campaign that smashes the quarterly fundraising record with $266 million, $131 in June alone, sound like a campaign that is sinking per our worthless national news media? Somehow I doubt these donations are coming from corporate CEOs given their nearly total capitulation to the Marxists...ReplyDelete
While we can't count on Barr and Durham, the left has given Trump's campaign some powerful video to run a law and order campaign against his political enemies, particularly mayors of liberal cities that took the side of the rioters and lawbreakers who want to defund law enforcement. This and an economy and stock market recovering at a record breaking pace.
And this type of record setting fundraising has been ongoing.Delete
And from that article:Delete
"The RNC also recently announced the hiring of an additional 300 field staffers, bringing the total "Trump Victory Operation" in key states to more than 1,100, which is nearly double that of the Biden campaign, according to the release."
That's what that kind of fund raising can do for you.
How are Trump’s GOTV efforts?
My guess huge, but not being officially noticed.
- Record primary votes for Trump.
- Kitchen being thrown at Trump by anti Trumpers.
Record primary votes is a huge tell. Perhaps you've seen the story about the poli-sci prof with a model that's virtually 100% correct in predicting winners. In 2016 he gave Trump an 87% chance of winning--contrary to the pollsters. This year he gives Trump a 91% chance of winning.Delete
His model is based on ... primary results!
And re GOTV, see comments above.Delete
This Norpoth model is rather close to my view, that the incumbents always get another term, when they get 75-80%+ of the primaries votes, as Nixon did in '72, but Papa Bush didn't in '92 (getting only 72.8%).Delete
The idea being, if an incumbent can't get 75-80+% from his own kind, they're likely sour enough on him, that they'll be ineffective at getting Indies etc. to back him in Nov.
Another indicator is, if a Indy/ 3rd Party candidate gets a seat, in at least one Debate w/ a major party nominee, this too suggests that the incumbent will be ineffective at getting Indies etc. to back him in Nov.
Makes sense. The first BushDelete
1) cooked his own goose with his "watch my hips" and
2) had medical issues that affected his campaigning.
All that feeds into the model.
If an Indy/ 3rd Party candidate gets a seat, in at least one Debate w/ a major party nominee, as did Anderson in '80, & Perot in '92.Delete
In each case, these seats showed, that TBTP took these Indies seriously, enough for them to make dents into the incumbent.
"42% of Dems identify as 'moderate/conservative/very conservative' ... among those Dems identifying as 'Moderate or Conservative,' only 81% claimed to be ready to vote for Biden."ReplyDelete
Q: Why do you intend to vote for the bumbling befuddled socialist candidate?
A: He's the democrat candidate. I'm a democrat.