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@kanyewest
We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States ! #2020VISION
7:38 PM · Jul 4, 2020
As a practical matter ...
1. Running for president would seem to preclude joining the Trump ticket as VP.
2. Running as a third party candidate is problematic as well, except as a write-in. Libertarian, Green, some other party? None seem like a good fit, and most probably have their tickets set--although not necessarily ballot access. Any of this would likely destroy the Dem party as currently constituted. It would not necessarily destroy West's ability to initiate a Trump-like takeover of the GOP in 2024.
3. Is this an attempt by West to muscle his way onto the Dem ticket as VP, in effect pushing the presidential nominee to the side? But there are serious problems here. How would this be reconciled with the Dem base--a black man talking about God, with a high profile recent history of getting close to Donald Trump? How would the Dems envision governing if they were to win?
I'm sure there are other considerations I'm missing, but that's a start.
UPDATE: Thinking about this, if we grant West credit for seriousness then we know that HE knows he can't actually win. OTOH, if he is serious--and his record of statements since Trump's election suggests he is--then he probably realizes that the current state of African Americans in American politics is toxic--for African Americans. The conclusion would be that he intends to change the current dynamic with regard to African American participation in American politics. That cannot be good news for Dems.
4. An effort to siphon the black vote from Biden, since Dems are still dependent on it?
ReplyDelete5. More popcorn.
ReplyDeleteWell, he's an entertainer and a self-promoter, so there are as many implications as the number stars in the universe--the specificity being equally speculative.
I try to address your comment in my Update.
DeleteYes. Well said and your conclusion nails it..
DeleteIt would require a monumentally expensive paid petitioning drive for him to get enough signatures to get on the ballot, since the latest date in any state is around Labor Day, and many states' deadlines have either already passed, or will in the next few weeks. With CV-19 infections on the rise, petitioning will be even more difficult than it usually is.
ReplyDeleteThis is way too late to start an independent/third party campaign.
So, it's either going to focus on a few states, or is a self promotional theatrical event, or he's crazy.
(He publicly revealed he was diagnosed with bipolar disorder in 2018.)
This development just got more interesting after reading your update. As you and Forbes say, no way to know for sure what's up at this point, but it's hard to argue with your reasoning.
ReplyDeleteYeah, insofar as he aims, to address the extent to which the current state of African Americans in American politics is toxic -- for African Americans, it could have a seismic impact on the political culture.
DeleteNot only for African Americans, but for debate among whites about race issues, rather like, but far greater than, Big Dog's remarks about Sister Souljua in '92.
Sister Souljah, not Sister Souljua.
DeleteI view it as a publicity move as well as part of his manic / depressive state. He had a mental breakdown in 2016. And his wife's family are experts in getting PUBLICITY.
ReplyDeleteIt is a way to increase his voice, and have a conversation that the Democrats don't want to have. He is using the words promise, God, and unifying. All terms toxic to Democrats.
Question is how are the Democrats going to respond to this? My guess is carpet bomb him by high lighting his past mental health issues to discredit him. They are going to Alinsky him with Rule 12 "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it." It's going to be vicious.
Your second and third paragraphs--point after point: Trump wins.
DeleteCarpet bomb a figure with big credibility among blacks? Go for it, Dems! But that's of a piece with all those videos of privileged white kids berating blacks who just want to live their lives. It's no wonder there are hardly any black protestors--blacks are seeing those videos, too.
I was watching several protest live streams this weekend and many of them don't have any black people marching. None at all.
Delete"Go for it, Dems!"
ReplyDeleteI'll be stunned if they end up being *that* stupid.
They're more likely to ignore him.
I agree. OTOH, Trump really brings out the stupid in them.
DeleteWhat if they (try to) move heaven and earth, to get the MSM to blow him off?
DeleteIt could, actually, be brilliant. Getting the black vote into the GOP is nearly impossible to do without a black candidate. Trump can soften them up some, but he can't really make them break for the GOP in a big way. Kanye can serve as spoiler, and if he is serious about what he is doing he knows that's just what he could do as a third party candidate. Then, in 2024, Kanye pulls those votes into the party he choses to run for his real candidacy. This would only work if he migrated to the GOP--he would be toxic to any Dems who were ticked off about Kanye playing spoiler to re-elect Trump.
ReplyDeleteIf this were for real, and a serious thing, I would not be surprised if Trump were in on it.
Yeah, he can dent this years' black vote, but not in all states.
DeleteAccording to https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates , he's already missed the ballot deadline in NY, and has less that two weeks to get on in FL and MI.
But, he could make a key diff in, say, PA, NC, and VA.
I was at first puzzled and alarmed by West's announcement because of his seeming closeness to Trump, who has listened to both Kayne and his wife and adopted some/most of their proposals. Then, I began to see the logic - siphon off black votes from the Dems.
DeleteI agree with your statement, "Getting the black vote into the GOP is nearly impossible to do without a black candidate."
However, it can't be just any black candidate. Herman Cain, Ben Carson, David Webb, Alan West, Larry Elder, Candace Owens et al. are somewhat "tainted" in the black community because they are already so closely associated with conservatism/GOP (not GOPe).
Kanye confessed that he wasn't even registered to vote in 2016. If he has since registered, I'd bet he's registered as an Independent, keeping his options open.
Kanye's celebrity outweighs his conservative ideas for the younger set of blacks. For elderly blacks, his public espousal of God and conservative ideas outweighs his celebrity. His example of upward mobility provides hope to all.
My hope for 2024 is that Ric Grenell becomes president, but I wouldn't object to Kanye West as his VP.
And I also think President Trump is either in on it or planted the seed in Kanye's mind and is proudly watching it sprout. As the GOPe has done President Trump no favors, he and Kanye might be plotting together to form a new Populist Party and pushing the GOPe the way of the Whigs.
To a list of 2024 candidates/ 3rd party leaders, w/ Kanye and Grenell, let's add Ms. Powell.
DeleteYou're right about the "tainted" aspect, for any of those (incl. on your list) who are "old hat" intellectuals, or some such.
Far better, would be a heretofore-apolitical entertainer or cop, who can run on "humane" Law & Order.
@Mark
ReplyDelete"I'm sure there are other considerations I'm missing, but that's a start."
@Anonymous
"It could, actually, be brilliant...I would not be surprised if Trump were in on it."
Let your imaginations run for a minute.
1. Let's agree Trump and Kanye cooked this up together.
2. Has Kanye said what party's line he's running on?
3. Let's say he purports to be a Dem.
4. How much fun can Kanye have pointing out to the entire Black electorate that Biden "ain't no Black". Because its true.
5. You can't be for China, and Silicon Valley, and Teachers' Unions, and Open Immigration and Wall Street and the Deep State (as Joe is) and also be for Black America. Trump has been saying this all along but wait till Kanye says it...maybe in an arena in Las Vegas with 25,000 supporters inside and a national television audience. Five times.
6. Wait till Kanye challenges Biden to a debate...and then watch him trot out the Biden Crime Bill and Joe's friendship with Sen. Byrd and then his buddies the credit card issuers who charge Blacks 35% interest...no bankruptcy permitted. Wait until Kanye points out how Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers and all their globalist successors stacked the deck against working Black families and got rich(er) than Croesus doing it. And how the Establishment suckered tens of thousands of Black and minority soldiers into fighting and risking and losing their lives in unwinnable wars in the Middle East.
7. Kanye can attack the horrible Obama/Biden record on Black unemployment and income levels far more effectively than Trump can. Kanye can say Obama did virtually nothing for Blacks...other than get rich himself...and get away with it.
8. Kanye can attack the Democrat record on police abuse in Dem cities. He can hold up General Flynn to the Black community and say: "You see how they framed General Flynn? We know this is what they do to us every day of the week."
9. Let's say Kanye pressures the MSM/BLM coalition into letting him into the Trump/Biden debates...let's say the MSM/BLM refuses? So Kanye and Trump hold their own debate...where they agree on...everything!
10. Let's say Kanye campaigns...against Biden...from now until, say, October 15...Then he announces that "Biden ain't Black" and throws his support to Trump.
Some of the foregoing may be far-fetched or untenable. Some...maybe not so much. I've read that if Trump can attract just 15% of the Black vote he wins in a landslide. I don't know if 15% is the right number but at some level of lost support among minorities, Biden simply can't win.
Start at the end: "I don't know if 15% is the right number"
DeleteTrump got 8% of the black vote in 2016. Basically anything past 10% is beyond disastrous for Dems. Now look at Trump's approval numbers. Can you say BLM?
Everything you say here is true. Younger blacks know these things, but it's hard to change. A Dem like Biden may be just the guy to push many across the line.
Were I Kanye, I'd stay away from the *ancient* history, on the Biden Crime Bill, and his friendship with Sen. Byrd.
DeleteIt'll be too easy, for Joe to plead that he's learned much since then.
Likewise, I'd tread carefully on the Teachers' Unions, seeing as so many members are black.
Instead, I'd expand on the Flynn part, esp. insofar as *Joe* was part of the plotting w/ the Dirty Cops of the FBI.
I'd urge him to stay clear of throwing his support to Trump, *unless* Durham really makes heads roll, at least to the extent of getting Rosey etc. to spill big beans to the nation.
None of the above.
ReplyDeleteBiden will not be the Democrat nominee. His mission was solely to eliminate Bernie. At the upcoming convention, he will bow out for health reasons and intends to yield to the Soros approved replacement candidate. Biden could not survive even one TV debate with Trump, and the Ds know that an election wipe-out for president would significantly harm down-ballot races.
As such, this election represents a wonderful opportunity for someone to jump to the head of the line without having to do the dirty (icky) work of campaigning. And there is a Machiavellian war playing out in the shadows of the Democrat hierarchy right now to select the next Chosen One. Kanye simply believes that he can finagle his way into being the replacement nomination and pull off an Obama 2.0.
And something similar is occurring on the Republican side, but it's about positioning for the 2024 election. Nikki Haley is working her buns off to secure a place as the Mainstream GOPe candidate (Jeb Bush clone, but with female and ethnic extra cred). And Cruz is manically pursuing the Outsider Candidate mandate. Pence likely has the Conservative lane locked up, so look for the three of them to fight it out for the spotlight at the Republican convention.
The Ds are hoping to shoot the moon, but will likely end up with a mega train wreck. The really sad reality is that the Deep State's scorched Earth campaign is causing a lot of needless harm and death, e.g. the two female SJWs that got slammed on the Interstate in Seattle. There is no reset button for death, and it will only escalate until Durham goes before the microphones.
Excellent comment, Sir. I agree that it's likely Biden won't be the ultimate nominee. I suspect he will get the nomination at the convention (as this will preclude any legal or other shenanigans among Bernie Bros or others), and then bow out later, possibly even after the debates. This allows for the eventual nominee to not be a smear target, and the MSM will conduct the campaign n that persons behalf.
DeleteI seriously doubt West would be that candidate. He has no association with either the Clinton or Obama clans, bot prerequisites to being the Dem nominee. At this point, speculating about his goal is too presumptuous imo.
Lastly, whilst your pontifications on the GOPe side of things are correct, again it's too presumptuous. It depends on who wins in Nov and how the losers react, it depends on RBG's health or lack thereof, it depends on one DJT and his incredible influence.
Here's my problem with that scenario--re Biden not being the candidate.
DeleteI could generally agree that the Dem establishment would like to pull a switcheroo. However, with the convention now baked in as a virtual affair with no delegates physically present, it's not clear to me how they can pull that off without alienating much or even most of their base. I think it's too late now to do that.
I agree that West is not a good fit for the Dems.
Yeah, even if Joe were to bow out now, let alone after the convention, it would be the biggest gamble in any major party's history.
DeleteI can't see them going there, unless they *know* that Durham's busts will implicate Biden, in time to make him DOA in Nov.
I agree it's too late for a switch. Plus, the virtual convention is obviously catering to his limitations (as well as seeking to avoid a BLM-ANTIFA spectacle).
DeleteI've also come to believe they can't pull a 25A switch after the election. The backlash would be too unpredictable.
I think it more likely that they assassinate him and make it look like a white supremacist did it. That would enable all manner of crackdowns at every level of society.
If Biden bows out and Sanders doesn't get the nomination, the Bernie Bros are going to riot; and they certainly will not vote for the Democrat. They'd probably just stay home and lose the House and any chance of taking the Senate just to teach the Democratic Party a lesson that they will be ignore at the peril of the Democrat Party.
DeleteHere is Kanye, pretty much in his own words, in Forbes:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2020/07/08/kanye-west-says-hes-done-with-trump-opens-up-about-white-house-bid-damaging-biden-and-everything-in-between/#71f38e0f47aa
Point by point. He has apparently chosen a VP running mate. Would run as an Independent. Didn’t someone say it’s too late?
From Kanye West’s Forbes interview:
ReplyDeleteAn hour into the interview, the hedging was done: He says he definitely plans to run in 2020, versus his original plan in 2024. The campaign slogan: “YES!” His running mate? Michelle Tidball, an obscure preacher from Wyoming. And why the Birthday Party? “Because when we win, it’s everybody’s birthday.”
Americans endured 8 years of that type of emptiness, then elected Trump.
DeleteWhen he supported Trump, it seemed refreshing. Now he just sounds like another entertainer looking for publicity. Courting the media. Very Kardashian.
DeleteYeah, pure blather. I was reading a story, very tragic, the father (Black) of a young girl who was shot and killed. He spoke on Hannity. Once you got past the obvious tragedy and all, however, it was empty blather: "we have to come together as a community and strategize." Uh, ... is it possible that these shootings reflect the communities they occur in? Maybe a new community is needed?
DeleteYears ago, in the nice suburban city I grew up in, the doctor who rode the city’s emergency ambulance told me that “every Friday night, after they’ve had enough to drink, they start cutting each other up”… and he’d be on calls into the early morning hours. He was speaking of that community in our city.
DeleteThere is always the same blather as they try to spread the blame and involve the white community, which is pretty much going on about its own business. Getting an education, going to work, marrying and supporting a family. Low drama.
Anyone among them who tries to do those things is called an “oreo” by "the community”.
Latest:
ReplyDelete>> The source had been approached about going to Florida on West’s behalf to help gather the signatures needed to make the ballot in the state by the July 15 deadline. This person was offered $5,000 for the week’s work. In order to qualify for the ballot in the Sunshine State, West would need to gather 132,781 valid signatures from Florida voters in less than a week.
On the morning of July 9, TMZ reported that West’s family was concerned that the billionaire rapper was suffering a bipolar episode based on his presidential aspirations. The well-sourced tabloid website added “our sources say his family and those close to him are worried, but they believe things will stabilize as they have in the past.” <<
>> https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/kanyes-short-lived-attempt-to-get-on-the-2020-ballot.html <<
Th article mentions conversations with several campaign professionals who had been hired to initiate ballot petitioning in a couple states, but those efforts have ceased, deadlines have pasted, and they report West is "out."
$5K for a job like that. Sorry, who woud take on a job like that for $5K?
Delete