Herd Immunity? Not So Much

I've made my share of mistakes regarding the Covid19 pandemic--being slow to realize the demographic/age profile comes to mind. OTOH, I've always been a herd immunity skeptic, for two basic reasons:

1. The 10 minute/6 feet guideline (and, yes, the distance is disputed) that was put forward very early on was, to me, a strong suggestion that this viral disease was not as readily transmitted as many feared. The fact that it still remains largely concentrated geographically to relatively congested human environments seems to me to be a confirmation of that.

2. It is well known that while antibodies to other corona viruses--such as the common cold--are readily developed by human subjects, they tend to be short lived.

Now, studies are starting to come out that are tending to confirm that SARS-Cov-2 antibodies only last for 2-3 months. Via Zerohedge:

A new study from China showed that antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward.

The study, which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients, showed that more than 90% of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection, according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine. Further, 40% of the asymptomatic group tested negative for IgG antibodies 8 weeks after they were released from isolation.

The Miami Herald reported on a study from Spain:

A large study from Spain showed that antibodies can disappear weeks after people have tested positive, causing some to question how possible it will be to attain herd immunity. 

A study published in medical journal Lancet showed 14% of people who tested positive for antibodies no longer had antibodies weeks later.

And there's more, here.

Who was it who thought it was a good idea to run gain-of-function research on corona viruses in a Captain Ahab like quest for a vaccine--and who, when the research was shut down in the US as too dangerous, paid to have it taken up again in China, a country with a dismal lab safety record? Yes, that was our own Anthony Fauci. Let's have some accountability, why not?

In the meantime, because accountability for malfeasance seems not to be such a thing in the US any more, perhaps we need to come to terms with this virus. The best hope seems to be that the virus may be weakening and may turn into something like the most common human corona virus, the common cold. There are medicines that hold out some promise, too, and we need to keep up that research. But vaccines? That's almost certainly a pipe dream. In the meantime, we need to find ways to live our lives while taking sensible, targeted precautions.