I'd like to draw attention to an interesting and provocative article that Zerohedge has republished from South Front. I'm not endorsing everything that's said in the article, but it raises interesting and possibly important foreign policy issues. And, since we know two things that bear on foreign policy, it would behoove us to pay attention:
1. The forces most strongly aligned against Trump were supported by Globalists--not really by people concerned strictly with domestic issues. That suggests that these same people will be eager to project US power abroad in ways that they favor--without much regard for US public opinion.
2. Playing into #1 is the well known fact that the dynamics of US politics--especially during periods of relatively even partisan divides--lead to the Executive Branch seeking to make a mark in foreign policy, rather than conducting a fruitless slog through domestic policy disputes.
Again, these are reasons that we should be paying attention to foreign policy--starting with Ukraine.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the South Front article.
Germany's Political Crisis And The Future Of Nord Stream 2
The author begins with the observation that the Zhou Baiden regime
was warmly welcomed in capitals around Europe as a sign that liberalism would vanquish populism ushering in a new era of “business as usual” in the form it was practiced during the Obama Administration.
Note well what he's saying right up front, because it's a central theme for what follows. What was "business as usual" under Obama? It was a vast empowerment of the Intel Community and the Deep State generally--Vindman's "Interagency" that made policy and carried it out, largely regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office. As the author points out, Baiden, "unlike Obama, would not score a Nobel Peace Prize solely for his existence." And, of course, that joke was totally on the Nobel knuckleheads, because Obama proceeded to follow the hyper warlike policies favored (dictated?) by the Deep State. When he attempted to rein in the military in Syria, they simply ignored him and went ahead with an aggressive bombing campaign. So, the business as usual--liberalism vanquishing populism--translates into the empowerment of a war mongering Deep State establishment.
The problem for the Deep State is that it can't afford to simply ignore the electorate indefinitely, and openly massive election fraud may be a one off that would backfire if repeated. In a period of populist sentiment that favors addressing domestic issues, the Deep State needs to find a way to swing public opinion, and this is what leads the author to consider and compare Euro politics vis a vis the US political situation.
The Zhou regime--whoever's running it--probably realizes the limits of their domestic initiatives, and so the regime's amateur foreign policy wonks have attempted to hit the ground running, with aggressive and provocative talk aimed at Germany, Russia, and China:
It does not appear as if Blinken’s “shock and awe” show on three continents has had the desired results.
We've seen that Russia and China can recognize weakness when they see it, and it appears that the Germans can, too. However ...
German politics are in turmoil currently, and the most notable feature is the rise of the Greens. However, the author suggests that this does NOT necessarily presage a resurgence of pacifism. Concurrent with the rise of the Greens, the author notes that populist movements such as Alternative for Germany (AfD - D for Deutschland) have been
attracting unwanted attention from Germany’s own “Deep State” which, like its US and British counterparts, is playing an increasingly active role in the country’s politics.
Oh! That should ring a few bells for observers of the American political scene, where Deep State support for the insurrectionist Left is in your face, while harmless populist groups who want IDs required for voting (not just for picking up baseball tickets) are demonized as existential threats to the republic. Meanwhile in the rest of the Anglophone world the jackboots are coming for ... Christian worshippers? Well, Christians tend toward populism in politics too.
Now, here's where the author advances a provocative big picture theory. You don't have to buy into all of it to see that the author may be on to something behind the Globalist/Deep State push for total societal control through Covid and Social Media canceling. The basic idea is that these forces are using Leftist movements to try to marginalize populist movements that oppose the Globalist agenda:
That the Greens’ coming to power is bound to result in Germany becoming more militaristic and interventionist on the world stage is also suggested by the curious case of Tareq Alaows, a Syrian man born in Damascus who came to Germany in 2015 and, only six years later, was declared a Bundestag candidate from the Green Party already as a German citizen. Given that the rest of the 1.5 million refugees who arrived in Germany at roughly the same time are still not German citizens and are likely never to become them, Alaows’ rapid elevation suggest that the Greens have friends within Germany’s “deep state”, and are interested in following US and British lead in “weaponizing” social issues such as gender rights, environmentalism, and other issues in order to justify aggression against countries [or domestic dissidents?] deemed insufficiently dedicated to what the West claims to be “universal values”. They would not be Europe’s first “Green” party to go neo-conservative. Sweden’s Greens have likewise inducted many Islamists into their ranks in order to press for greater foreign interventionism. Moreover, since Germany’s Green Party is a relatively recent invention and is therefore not associated with Germany’s earlier military aggressions ... they are the most logical front for Germany’s neo-cons.
One can readily imagine empowered Greens declaring Germany has a sacred mission to rid the world of coal, oil, and natural gas as sources of energy which naturally means a confrontation with China and Russia in order to install governments in those countries that naturally share the Greens’ priorities and incidentally also enact policies highly favorable to German business interests. ...
Keep an eye on foreign policy.
The Trump candidacy and administration is a case study in how little our elected officials actually govern. Trump was able to govern some, but the “state” opposed him across the board. It’s a testament to his force of will and the of those around him that he was able to get done what he did. Yeah, he did surround himself, at times, with people that turned out to be bad and no, it was not his daughter or her husband.ReplyDelete
This is the antithesis of what our country rebelled for. Then again, I have read that there were more people that, if not for the Crown, were apathetic than for breaking away from the British Empire.
I basically agree. I think he got a remarkable amount done on the domestic front--considering the opposition from his own side. OTOH, although he accomplished a lot on the FP front, he still was not able to do all he set out to do. The Deep State opposition was too strong, and it was the Deep State with its faux impeachments that probably slowed him down the most.Delete
And this is not new or “novel” ... I hate buzzwords by the way ...Delete
About 60 years since. He warned about what we are seeing today and have seen for decades upon decades since just as George Washington warned on factionalism.
We ignored both.
This Farewell Address by him was after the Korean Conflict, War, and in the inception of the Vietnam War.
Funny you mention that; there was a Marine - Colonel (later “Commandant”) David M. Shoup - who made a name for himself & was awarded the CMOH for his stalwart stand literally on the beach @ Tarawa who ran afoul of “the establishment” later in the 1960’s BC of his opposition to the Vietnam War.
He didn’t see Vietnam the same way a Commie Pinko like Jane Fonda did, he just saw the whole thing as useless, stupid, & a senseless waste of American youth. He took a lot of flak for his stand.
Yet another example of what happens when you go against the grain of current “accepted orthodoxy”.
TD - funny you mention that: there was a Marine officer - Colonel (later Commandant of the Marine Corps) -David M. Shoup who led the amphibious assault on Tarawa in 1943 & saved it from the near self-inflicted disaster it could have been since the Navy got the tides wrong & the Higgins boats couldn’t get over the reef. In the 1960’s he ran afoul of “the establishment” when he came out against the Vietnam War.ReplyDelete
He didn’t oppose Vietnam for the same reasons a Commie Pinko like Jane Fonda did, he saw it the way Eisenhower did: a military industrial-manufactured war ripe for exploitation by defense contractors & officers seeking quick advancement.
He took a lot of flak for his stand. Yet another example of what happens when you buck current “accepted orthodoxy”.
Germany has their own goals, and they are not the same as the us. And they are very anti American.ReplyDelete
Nord 2 is happening, for it helps Germany.
Military wise, Germany is in such bad shape it’s not even a joke.
Increased Domestic controls in Germany due to Christian nationalist anti foreigner anti Covid thoughts - yes, I see that happening. They need a scapegoat for the incompetence of the government decisions.
Agree the Biden administration is trying desperately to have have some success foreign policy wise. My guess to show how much better they are than Trump.
I’m still in shock over the us Alaska meeting.
Re Nord 2, the US objection, as I've always understood it is this. The logical pipeline route is right across Belarus and Poland into Germany. By doing the Baltic route Russia bypasses those countries and retains ability to use its energy weapon against Poland and the rest of Central Europe. Germany is OK with that--they'll have their direct supply. This aimed against NATO.Delete
These machinations remind me of nothing so much as the Godfather movies. Perhaps we should be viewing domestic and foreign policy not so much as competing national interests but as competing criminal enterprises. The American Crime Syndicate jostles with and haggles with the CCP Syndicate, and Russian and German etc.. While this has the feel of traditional diplomacy there is an utter illegality that is different, combined with a complete lack of loyalty to anyone but the Syndicate. Like the rivals to the Corleoness, rival families are watching for weakness and opportunities to get a bigger share of the action.ReplyDelete
-Vitamin D for the Peasants!