This morning I have a table to summarize some of the COVID19 stats for the US as a whole. It's a bit rough and ready, as you can see, but I hope it may allow us to clarify a few things--including expectations for next week. Let me explain what we have here, first.
I've basically taken the Worldometer
summary table. The states (and DC) are ranked by total cases, but in parentheses I've added the rank of each state by population. (If you notice a ranking discrepancy, it's because I deleted PR, without changing the numbered ranking.) Then I added a far right hand column with total tests performed
. (H/T Ray So-Cal).
A perusal of the ranking by Covid10 compared to population ranking provides a rough and ready idea of where the states stand--at the present time--on a per capita basis. Keep in mind something rather important in this regard. The main ports of entry into the US from foreign countries that might import Covid19 prominently include these:
NY, LA, SF, Seattle, Chicago, DC, Miami, Dallas, Houston, Boston, Detroit.
You'd expect the states that contain those cities to rank high up on the total cases. You might also want to add in neighboring states in some cases--NJ, next to NY, for example.
Next you'll want to compare total testing with population ranking. That will tell you which states are more or less on the ball with their testing programs (we're all behind and playing catch up) and which states have dropped the ball.
If a state ranks pretty high on total cases but has done little testing as compared to its population ranking you could probably expect--if you're a betting type of person--that in the coming week or two as lots more testing gets done those states are gonna get hammered.
Michigan and California rank near the top of the table, but are way, way, behind other states in terms of testing if you compare them to their population ranking. Both states--but especially California--are top destinations for foreign travelers from China. Texas (2) is more down toward the middle of the chart and is home to two top ports of entry, but has been slow to get testing going--when you consider its population. Louisiana (25) has been hard hit. On the other hand, it has been doing a fair amount of testing on a per capita basis. Georgia (8) is also behind on its testing. These are the states I'll be watching for dramatic developments, although the entire top third of the table bears watching. IL and FL have top ports of entry, for example. They've been testing, doing a better job than CA and MI, but it's still relatively early days.
Maybe some other aspects of these stats will jump out at you. The stats aren't totally up to date, but they mostly reflect yesterday and won't be much off on a comparative basis.