In the post-Obama election cycles, the Trump Era, the pollster who has most consistently gotten things right--including naming swing states where Trump needed to win "beyond the margin of fraud"--has been Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group. Yesterday an interesting article--for those interested in such matters--appeared which presented in its second half some of Cahaly's thoughts not merely on what has been happening with polling and with recent elections, but also some worthwhile thoughts going forward. Check it out:
Trafalgar: The Pollster That Keeps Getting It Right
Among his insights, Cahaly understands the design of the polls themselves can drastically alter who responds to the sample. “Long questionnaires are just not realistic,” he said. “... No normal person will take the time to answer 30-question polls.”
Cahaly also thinks that what he calls “social desirability bias” can impact polling results. ... “People are hesitant to admit that they will vote for someone who is controversial. You have to get that answer.”
Cahaly has developed a variety of techniques to do just that. ...
“In 2016, what we found is people didn’t want to admit they were voting for Trump,” he continued. “Clinton is saying everyone who’s voting for Trump is a deplorable and all this nonsense. People were hiding their feelings. In 2020, it was even worse. Due to this cancel culture stuff, conservatives didn’t even want to participate in a poll. Period.”
“People are just tired of being judged,” he said. Cahaly believes that polling in the Trump era must find ways of measuring voter sentiment that address this obvious social desirability bias.
One major example of polling failures in both the 2016 and 2020 elections was in gauging minority support for Republicans. Cahaly notes that Hispanics especially supported Republicans and President Trump, and not just in Florida and Texas. “It was all across the country, in Massachusetts and Wisconsin and California. When you talk to the polling establishment, they said the exit polls don’t indicate that. But you have to ask, how are they doing the exit polling? People are going to be less honest with you in person in exit polls when someone has a clipboard or an iPad.”
Cahaly thinks Trump’s true gains with minorities have been underreported. “I will tell you that across the country Trump did better than 35% with Hispanics as an average and he did better than 25% with African-Americans,” he said.
On the 2022 midterm elections, Cahaly cautiously predicts that at this time, “it is looking like Republicans will take back the House.”
“Everything is right for Republicans to take back the House, but obviously Republicans could still mess that up. For instance, certain Republicans are still gathered together listening to someone like Frank Luntz,” he said. “We haven’t seen the reform that needs to happen on the level of party organization.”
As for what the key debates will be going forward, Cahaly points to the rapid rise of Critical Race Theory as a national issue. “Education issues are massive election issues around the country,” he said. “Critical Race Theory is a major election issue. What we’re finding is that average Americans care about what their children are being taught. If you look at the riots that we had last summer, the older generation was more upset that the violence didn’t bother their children. So many of these young people had been taught crazy things.”
On target comment on Frank Luntz and lack of reform in GOP.
Comment about Black and Latino support is telling. He is Saying Trump won, without doing so, to avoid being cancelled. I wonder what the real 2020 election numbers were.
Thats what I keyed in on also. Seems like years now but I thought even the exit polls were pretty shocking on minority voting patterns.Delete
Does anyone know what he had predicted for 2020?
Nevada, Arizona, Pa, Mi, and Ga per their polling should have gone to Trump…
Extremely sarcastic comment…
Amazing how they got so many states wrong!
Trafalgar Group and Richard Baris have been the only pollsters worth paying attention to for the past two presidential cycles. It is not exactly news that the majority of pollsters seeking to shape and not report opinion. Barnes and Baris are really pretty entertaining and savvy. Too bad Trump didn't bring them on board in 2020. Their videos are too long, but their analysis is excellent (they really need to transition off of YouTube):ReplyDelete
BTW: Listen to Barnes and Baris discuss Bluto and how he assassinated Trump in 2020. Cued to 46:46. Listen to the next 15 mins.Delete
If you follow the numbers as presented of minorities going for Trump you can understand the panic that was driving the democrats to cheat, no matter the potential blow back if exposed. The Antifa and BLM antics were spawned to muddy the waters and bring back those minority voters to the democrat fold.ReplyDelete
If you doubt the democrats fear, just look at their priority in passing the HR-1 bill to federalize elections. The AZ audit results should have them (and their media allies) on pins and needles.
In fact Cahaly is not alone on this. Within the last few weeks I saw several Dem analysts saying they have to do more to win minority voters.Delete
Antifa and Blm are now defending Trans Rights…ReplyDelete
I feel sorry for the Korean Spa affected…
Three Dem proxy movements, all tied together. It's a good look.Delete
And attacking Orientals.Delete
A nugget of gold in this story, is how Ct had voter fraud. Interesting how once the left gets power, how they make sure they keep power by changing the rules. And often, the eGOP does not fight these rule changes tooth and nail.
The lack of Right Lawfare, compared to the Left, is a huge deficit. And a huge opportunity for the Right. I read something about some starting under Trump.
Ray, thanks for drawing attention to that article. Very bad titling. I saw the title and thought, Why bother? Just another attack on a dishonest Dem--no news there. Instead, there's a very substantive discussion of vote fraud. Who would guess that from the title?Delete
A Happy 4th to Mark, and so many others who contribute here!ReplyDelete