Some Thoughts From Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group

In the post-Obama election cycles, the Trump Era, the pollster who has most consistently gotten things right--including naming swing states where Trump needed to win "beyond the margin of fraud"--has been Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group. Yesterday an interesting article--for those interested in such matters--appeared which presented in its second half some of Cahaly's thoughts not merely on what has been happening with polling and with recent elections, but also some worthwhile thoughts going forward. Check it out:

Trafalgar: The Pollster That Keeps Getting It Right

Polling Hoaxes

When a regime needs to rely on hoax polls to gaslight the public into--hopefully--believing that everyone supports what's going on, you can bet they're in trouble. The goal is to suggest to people that they're all alone in being unhappy, isolated from family, friends, neighbors, community, nation. There's no point in beefing to them about how bad things are and--above all--there's no point in voting against the way things are. This tactic works less and less, as public distrust of the MSM and politicians reaches higher and higher levels. The wide availability of fact based information on the internet to counter the fake news is another huge countervailing factor. 

And so, if like me you read the Pew Poll with wonderment, you were probably thankful to be enlightened about what was really going on. All in one tweet:

RIP: the credibility of @pewresearch https://t.co/8bQTcgV83A

— Emerald Robinson ✝️ (@EmeraldRobinson) April 19, 2021

Right. If you believed that 59% number you probably also believe that the mRNA are 95% effective with no side effects.

Liz Peek at Fox has an overview of recent polling:

Biden's weak poll numbers – here's why many Americans unhappy with president, radical policies

Deeper dive into the numbers suggests support for the president is lukewarm

Basically, what Peek's deeper dive tells us is that, even in polls that show Zhou Baiden with his head above water, the real story is in the discrepancy between "strongly approve" and "strongly disapprove." The really key point in the article is: "Lukewarm doesn't get people to the voting booth." Not everybody in America votes in every election, and that's especially true in midterms, and that's why that discrepancy matters--a lot.

Have Dems Been Reading The Polls?

I'll bet they have been, and that would explain the almost palpable sense of desperation among the few Dem politicos who are in touch with reality. 

I'm lifting this from Steve Hayward at Powerline, who lifted it from the Harvard-Harris poll (I think that's run by former Clintonista Mark Penn)--What Americans Think.

Considering the amount of time and energy that the Establishment has expended in attempting to convince the public that Election 2020 was fair and square, this first question has to be, to put it mildly, disquieting for all involved in that effort. It's a measure of how little influence they exercise. The rest of the questions and responses illustrate the same divide or disconnect between the would be opinion makers and their target--the American public. Americans, by and large, recognize Antifa, BLM, the January 6 Event, PC generally and cancel culture specificially, for what they are. Leftist control mechanisms. Oh, and the consensus on illegals entering the US remains Trumpian to a jaw dropping extent:

Polling: Is The Third Time The Charm?

CTH is reporting that a third major national poll is now reporting support for Trump among African Americans in the low to mid thirties range: 33-35%. We've seen Rasmussen and Emerson College come up with those results in the last few weeks, but the new poll is NPR/PBS and Marist, which would generally be considered to slant liberal. You may wish to simply refer to CTH, as the presentation may be a bit easier: Third National Poll Outlining 33/34 Percent Black and Minority Voter Support for President Trump.

This has to be mind blowing for Dems. What effect will it have on Impeachment Theater? It's becoming increasingly apparent that impeachment is a niche, white-liberal, thing.

UPDATED: Impeach The Pollsters!

I'm sure readers here have seen some of the recent polling on impeachment. So has Trump, and he weighs in (below). Fox claims that the poll was based on "interviews with 1,003 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide." That is inherently non-credible:

It’s easy to get 51% in favor of impeachment when 48% of those polled were Democrats.

Democrats were overrepresented and independents were underrepresented in the @FoxNews poll.

Independents oppose impeachment / removal by 47-39.

This very unfair poll was comprised of: pic.twitter.com/PULU7bZLa7

— Team Trump (@TeamTrump) October 10, 2019

UPDATE: It was even worse than originally thought--Dems oversampled by 14%:

Via @Str8Don (h/t GP), who adds:

Funny how @SpeakerRyan who now helps run Fox News has got them to RIG THEIR POLLS 

Check out their polling samples! They aren’t even polling fox viewers!
14+ D?  

They are trying to give cover for @GOP to impeach!  

Fox News is the enemy!