UPDATED: The Only Real Question About Impeachment

To my way of thinking, the only real question about this whole Impeachment Theater, is whether GOPe senators will seek to use it in some way as leverage to bend Trump to their agenda. This could take the form of raising issues on how to proceed in the Senate regarding the possibility of witnesses. My sense is that the senators recognize that this would probably be a losing proposition. Losing with Trump, but more importantly for them, losing with voters. In that regard, it's important to bear in mind that, when it comes to elections, senators are generally in a very different situation than Representatives. Senators must appeal to voters on a statewide basis, and few are in "safe" states--as the recent election of Doug Jones in a special election illustrates. Thus senators can't afford to alienate the base, but equally they need to appeal to independents--who, in this situation are heavily against impeachment.

UIPDATE: In a comment below I characterize Senator Rand Paul's recent statement on impeachment as a bit of welcome politicking--placing himself front and center, but in a positive wasy. Ben Domenech addresses this and other issues--

What Senate Republicans Should Learn From The House On Impeachment 

House Republican leadership was enormously successful in how they handled hearings and managed to attain a bipartisan vote. The Senate should take note.

Here's what Domenech says about Paul's statement, and you can see he gives Paul even more credit than I did:

It’s important for leadership to keep order, but also to have Senators prepared to deploy their arguments in an effective manner and to push back against what is now a boringly familiar media narrative. Knowing your role and creating room for less secure Senators is key.

Already, we see Rand Paul doing that quite effectively. It seems obvious from this interview that he’s sending a message designed to keep Republican Senators in line on witness questions. You want to call John Bolton? Fine, that means you’ll have to vote on calling Hunter Biden, too.

From Politico:

Paul says if four or more of his GOP colleagues join with Democrats to entertain new witness testimony, he will make the Senate vote on subpoenaing the president’s preferred witnesses, including Hunter Biden and the whistleblower who revealed the Ukraine scandal — polarizing picks who moderate Republicans aren’t eager to call. So he has a simple message for his party: end the trial before witnesses are called.

“If you vote against Hunter Biden, you’re voting to lose your election, basically. Seriously. That’s what it is,” Paul said during an interview in his office on Wednesday. “If you don’t want to vote and you think you’re going to have to vote against Hunter Biden, you should just vote against witnesses, period.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has warned Republicans not to divide the party and endanger his slim GOP majority, but Paul’s play could be useful to him. If the pressure campaign stifles the small group of Republicans open to hearing from witnesses like former national security adviser John Bolton, McConnell will be able to conclude the trial in the swift fashion he’s long sought.

But if a majority of the Senate agrees to hear witnesses, Paul is ready to go all out to make sure everyone in the Senate is on the record about whether they stand with Trump.

“My first preference would be to be done with it as soon as possible and not to have any witnesses,” Paul said. “If they insist on having people like Bolton coming forward, my insistence will be not just one witness. But that the president should be able to call any witnesses that he deems necessary to his defense.”

Paul’s threat is backed up by real power under the process envisioned by McConnell and allowed for under Senate rules.

Of course, Paul’s demand is more than political gamesmanship: it also happens to be totally justified.