Thursday, October 15, 2020

How Investment Banks Are Looking At The Election

I don't want to spend too much time covering angles that others are covering in far greater depth. However, since investment banks get paid for looking into the future political and economic situation on behalf of wealthy clients and firms, this story at Fox seemed worth pointing to: 

Voter-registration patterns give Trump an edge invisible to polls: JPMorgan

Voter registration favors Republicans in many key battleground states, the bank's analysis says

We've all seen these stories about voter registration, but a bit of confirmation from an investment bank that gets paid for being right--unlike most polling firms--is always welcome. According to their analysis, Trump may win key states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina by larger margins than in 2016.

In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.

JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.

Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.

JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.

The article also cites a Wells Fargo study from about two weeks ago that suggested that intangibles such as "his recent Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership trends and a stronger backing from African-American voters are all playing into Trump’s hands."

Separately, I saw a claim that the WOW counties--fairly populous suburban counties surrounding Milwaukee, which often trend GOP--are experiencing a 30% surge in new voters. Such a development also bodes well for Trump in running up a greater margin of safety, since these new voters tend to be Trump voters.

ADDENDUM: Stuff like this plays into those analyses:

Great data from ’s rally in Des Moines shows support the pollsters are missing:
10,139 voters identified
48.5% (!) NOT Republican
29.4% (!) Democrat
25.0% did not vote in 2016
13.7% did not vote in the last 4 elections
Thank you, Iowa!


  1. No matter how much money Biden is raising, the public is not being fooled.

    1. The new emails re the China angle are pretty eye-opening.

  2. Last night at a zoom real estate meet up on the economy One speaker stated Biden has an 80% chance of winning. Speaker is a super numbers guy scientist type, I left the meeting after that. The problem with numbers is they are open to manipulation, as has been done in the polls.

    My gut feeling is Trump is on the path to winning, and the election is going to get even more over the top. We have only seen the beginning of the laptops contents...

    Interesting news - 2nd proposed debate moderator admitted he lied about getting hacked. What a huge blow of credibility to those who publicly vouched for him, including the debate commission.

    And the FCC May act on 302.

  3. The MSM fabricates a world that they want their readers and viewers to live in.

    But investors and businessmen must deal with the world as it is.