How Investment Banks Are Looking At The Election

I don't want to spend too much time covering angles that others are covering in far greater depth. However, since investment banks get paid for looking into the future political and economic situation on behalf of wealthy clients and firms, this story at Fox seemed worth pointing to: 

Voter-registration patterns give Trump an edge invisible to polls: JPMorgan

Voter registration favors Republicans in many key battleground states, the bank's analysis says

We've all seen these stories about voter registration, but a bit of confirmation from an investment bank that gets paid for being right--unlike most polling firms--is always welcome. According to their analysis, Trump may win key states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina by larger margins than in 2016.

In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.

JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.

Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.

JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.

The article also cites a Wells Fargo study from about two weeks ago that suggested that intangibles such as "his recent Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership trends and a stronger backing from African-American voters are all playing into Trump’s hands."

Separately, I saw a claim that the WOW counties--fairly populous suburban counties surrounding Milwaukee, which often trend GOP--are experiencing a 30% surge in new voters. Such a development also bodes well for Trump in running up a greater margin of safety, since these new voters tend to be Trump voters.

ADDENDUM: Stuff like this plays into those analyses:

Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman

·

18h

Great data from

@realDonaldTrump

’s rally in Des Moines shows support the pollsters are missing:

10,139 voters identified

48.5% (!) NOT Republican

29.4% (!) Democrat

25.0% did not vote in 2016

13.7% did not vote in the last 4 elections Thank you, Iowa!