UPDATES: Polling News Up First

Here's Item Five from Don Surber's morning highlights. The Trafalgar Group poll tries to adjust for the "shy" Trump voter factor, and had excellent results in 2016:

ITEM 5: The Trafalgar Group got all the battleground states correct last time.

No one else did.

Its latest polls show President Trump is up 2 in Florida, down 2 in Pennsylvania, up 4 in Arizona, up 3 in Ohio, down 3 in Wisconsin, and up less than a point in Michigan. This would put [Trump's] Electoral College vote at 275 with Biden at 263.

I would take it. 

Meanwhile, I like the chances of Rudy's Revelations having an impact. As Mark Anderson points out at AmThinker, Rudy has the advantage over everyone else (except the FBI): Rudy has seen the evidence. He can elicit reactions and bring out new revelations to match the reactions--and to Trump them.

Buckle up: Hunter Biden laptop scandal may be about to get a whole lot worse

BRIEF UPDATE: Per the Washington Examiner, 68% of 2016 Obama --> Trump "swing" voters currently intend to vote for Trump again. The reasoning is interesting and illustrates that some people really do think a bit before voting. A reason that kept cropping up was: Kamala Harris. These people don't want her to be president. They're also fair minded, which sets them off from Dems:

... notably, while the media has put the blame for the expanding coronavirus on the president’s desk, swing voters are far more forgiving and give him credit for fighting it.

“Criticism of President Trump’s pandemic response has become a centerpiece of the Biden campaign; however, most of our swing voters don’t blame the president for the negative impacts of the coronavirus. They believe this is an unprecedented situation and President Trump is doing the best he can and as well as any other president would have, following the advice of experts,” said the survey provided to Secrets.

"It’s notable that despite nearly half of our Obama-Trump voters being 'less confident now' or 'still not confident now,' many of them are planning to vote for President Trump anyway. They generally believe he is working hard to solve the problem and the coronavirus situation isn’t his fault. They believe our country was doing well before the pandemic," said the survey.

And most think they are better off under Trump. “The good news for the Trump campaign -- in stark contrast to swing state polling showing Biden ahead -- is that swing voters credit the president for the strong economy pre-pandemic. Even with the impact of the pandemic on their lives, most say they’re better off now than they were four years ago. He is like no other politician they have experienced in their lifetime and they believe he is working hard and standing up for our country,” said the analysis.

 

Obviously Trump would like to bring the other 32% back. There's time.

UPDATE 2: The Cookie Poll!

It's being conducted by a bakery in Montgomery County, PA--a county that went heavily for Hillary (58%), even more heavily than for Obama. It's populous and home to the wealthy Maine Line area of suburban Philadelphia. The bakery claims it's cookie poll--based on candidate themed cookies--has accurately predicted the winner for the last three election cycles. This time Trump is winning 3-1, and the bakery is being swamped with orders:

This year’s sales, however, are unlike anything the bakery has seen during the last four election cycles.

Owner Kathleen Lochel tells Fox News the idea originally started "as a joke" back in 2008. (Lochel's Bakery)

“People are going crazy for them," said bakery owner Kathleen Lochel in a statement to Fox News, adding that the shop usually only sells a few hundred each election.

Since debuting this year's cookies, however, Lochel’s has already sold thousands of the treats — and demand doesn’t seem to be dwindling anytime soon.

...

Lochel’s is now instituting a six-cookie limit for all walk-in customers. The bakery has further announced that it would only accept advance orders of 100 cookies or more.

...

"So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1," she told Fox News on Friday morning."So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1," she told Fox News on Friday morning.