It's a very full, number heavy analysis. Shipwreckedcrew's basic point is that the pollsters are not seeing the long term trend in voter behavior:
Here's what that means. It's well known that a fair number of states that regularly go Republican actually have far more voters who are registered Dem than are registered Republican. The clear implication from that fact is that registered Dems are far more likely to cross over and vote GOP than vice versa. What SWC shows in his article is that that trend has--over the last several election cycles, including the Obama elections--been trending ever more against the Dems. You see that in the percentage of registered Dems who vote Dem versus the percentage of GOPers who vote GOP. The data consistently that ever more Dems are crossing over and that GOPers are growing ever more loyal than before to their brand:
Pres. Obama beat McCain when the numbers were 73% v. 82%
and Romney when the numbers were 70% v. 86%
Hillary Clinton lost when the numbers went to 69% v. 90%
That's twelve years, so it sure doesn't look like a blip on the radar screen.
And, says SWC, the numbers get even worse. Because the Dem registration has declined by -311K since 2008 while GOP registration has increased by +209. Result?
Even if you run an election model using the Obama high point of 73% v. the Trump mark of 90% brand loyalty, Trump wins by 64K. So:
So to get Biden a win, he needs to do better than all but Obama’s historic win in 2008, and Trump has to do significantly worse than he did in 2016.
Looked at slightly differently:
Democrats still enjoy a sizeable advantage in voter registration numbers, but a significant number of registered Democrats have consistently voted for GOP Presidential candidates for two decades. And the registration advantage has declined from 1.23 million in 2008 to only 717,000 now.
I won't run SWC's numbers for this next point, but his conclusion is that the polling results we're seeing currently in the MSM are wildly out of wack with history going back to 2008 and beyond. According to SWC's number crunching, the polls showing Biden ahead assume that he will draw 77% of registered Dems--when the best performance by any recent Dem was Obama in 2008 at 73%. That would require a HUGE collapse in GOP support for Trump, and there appears to be no evidence at all for that:
The AVERAGE for votes/registered voters for Democrats in the last 4 elections is 71%, and the best Obama did was 73%. Yet the polls say Biden will do 77%??? That 4% difference between Obama’s best performance and what the polls say Biden will do, represents 168,000 votes for Biden than Obama got in his historical first campaign.
The AVERAGE for votes/registered voters for the GOP in the last 4 elections is 84.5 — including 80% by Bush 43 and 82% by McCain. Getting only 82% as the polling claims would represent a HUGE Collapse of support for Trump among GOP voters after his number was 90% in 2016.
Heck, Romney’s number was 86% — and Trump is going to underperform Romney with GOP Voters in Pennsylvania?
No, that sure doesn't seem likely.
Remember the other day I quoted a JPMorgan Chase study and another Wells Fargo study, both seeking to predict the outcome of the election? How Investment Banks Are Looking At The Election. SWC has read Zerohedge's summary of the JPMorgan Chase study and draws the same conclusions for other "battleground" states. They're going Trump when all is said and done, because that's where the changes in party registration are pointing. Note: In the following, for reasons known only to SWC himself, SWC refers to the JPMorgan Chase study as the "Morgan Stanley" study. Don't be fooled. This is it: JPMorgan's Kolanovic Has A Warning For Those Expecting A Crushing Biden Victory, and the study is by JPMorgan's top "quant":
A quantitative analyst at Morgan Stanley has done a study of the relationship between changes in party registration and vote outcomes. Zero Hedge covered it in this article. Based on a similar evaluation, he sees almost every battleground state breaking for Trump in the end.
Now you know why Barack Obama is going to Philadephia.
And why the polls being published about the state of the race there are worse than meaningless — they are propaganda intended to suppress the GOP vote.
There you have it. Follow the link above to get deep into the weeds with SWC.
UPDATE: RedState has an article just up on early voting trends. Remember that Dems typically outnumber GOPers greatly in the early vote, and GOPers come out hugely on the day. Obviously this time is different. Nevertheless, as has already been seen, Dems are failing to meet their targets for the early vote and GOPers are exceeding their targets. With that in mind, Early Voting Numbers in Key States Are Surprising and Good News:
In Texas, which some Democrats have deluded themselves into thinking might flip, Republicans are up by 11, 51%-40%.
In Michigan, a critical battleground state, it’s 41% to 39%, Republicans.
In Ohio, the numbers are looking even better, with 46%-41 of the returned ballots favoring the GOP.
In Wisconsin, it’s 40%-38% in the requested ballots, Republicans.
Arizona is tied at 36%.
By any normal standards, those are extremely encouraging numbers for Trump.