About a week ago we ran a post based on research by SinoInsider. That study pointed to evidence that China has been fiddling with its latest census numbers to conceal very bad demographic news. The numbers presented, according to this study, may have been intended to clumsily conceal the extent of the Covid disaster in China: Is China Jiggering It's Census Numbers? And Why? At the same time, as we've emphasized in the past, the article affirmed that China has for decades been caught in a classic demographic trap. Despite its economic and technological progress, China is growing old before it grows rich, leaving an enormous portion of its population without provision for their old age. Meanwhile the numbers of the working age population continue to drastically shrink. Even worse, the birth rate among the working young also continues to fall, despite belated efforts to increase the number of births. That guarantees that the imbalance will only grow much worse in the future.
Today Fox News carries a story that, most likely, few will notice. Nevertheless, it's an important story as an indicator of how aware the PRC is of the scope of its demographic problem and of the dangers involved for China's future:
China eases birth limits, to allow couples to have 3 children
The announcement follows census data that showed China's working-age population shrank over the past decade
BEIJING -- China's ruling Communist Party will ease birth limits to allow all couples to have three children instead of two in response to the population's rising age, a state news agency said Monday.
The announcement follows census data that showed China's working-age population shrank over the past decade while the number of people older than 65 rose, adding to strain on the economy and society.
...
Please note that China previously attempted to increase the number of births by junking its notorious One Child Policy (in 2015) and allowing for two children per couple--to no avail. The birth rate has continued to fall disastrously since that easing, causing this upping of the ante to three children the appearance of pushing on a string. If upping the limit from one to two children was followed by a continuing decline in the birth rate, why would one expect a further raising of the limit to make any difference? Obviously the decline in births is being driven by more than just government policies on the size of families.
The conclusion, which has long been clear, is that China's demographic--and, therefore, long term economic and social--problems are deep seated. The trends that these problems have set in motion will be difficult, at best, to reverse.
UPDATE: The new three-child policy--replacing the previous one-child and two-child policies--is pretty clearly a sign of desperation. More via LifeSite, with some startling stats:
According to the BBC, a census published earlier this month showed that “around 12 million” babies were born in China last year, the lowest number of births recorded since the 1960s. This is down from the 18 million babies born in China in 2016.
David Mulroney, a Canadian former ambassador to China, told LifeSiteNews that there are “no winners” after China’s Malthusian attempt, beginning in 1978, to stop its population from growing.
“China’s four-decade war on the family ends without any winners,” Mulroney said. “For forty years, the state has visited violence on its people, born and unborn, in the name of population control, only to arrive now at an emerging demographic disaster.”
“As the number of seniors approaches 20% of the population, economic growth is tailing off and healthcare costs are skyrocketing. Having ruthlessly suppressed any consideration other than economics, China’s leaders are finding that it is precisely on economic grounds that many young Chinese women are declining to have any children at all.”
China will find a way to send a chunk of it's older population to the USA-- legally or illegally-- to drain our social security system.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't happen to a nicer commie-rat-b**tard country. Unfortunately, the USA seems to be on the same trajectories--both demographically and commie-rat-b**tardly.
ReplyDeleteThe libertarian and Dem solution is to bring in a million non-English speaking aliens per year. They also are either ambivalent or downright hostile to the founding precepts of our democratic republic. And since many--if not most--are paying nowhere near enough in taxes to offset the costs they import with their belly buttons, this 'solution' seems like a loser.
I suppose we can hope that China wins the race to the bottom, but I wouldn't count on them going down without taking the rest of the world--especially us--with them.
According to Dr. Michael Pillsbury (The Hundred-Year Marathon), that one-child policy was the work of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), which, according to Pillsbury, has been responsible for many of the CCP’s policies.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the purpose of trying to distinguish between the CCP and its praetorian guard? May as well differentiate between a shark's teeth and its jaws.
DeleteTwo things.
ReplyDelete1. Upping the limit of kids from 2 to 3 is not pushing the string. Imagine that the population consists of 40% who would have 3 children if allowed and 20% who wouldn't have more than 1 child and another 40% who want none at all. You certainly could wind up with more births in the group that wants more than 2 children if the limit is raised. It may not reverse the decline but it could conceivably (no pun intended) slow it. The next step for CCP would be offering cash incentives for large families along with strong warnings for those who decline their socialist duties. After that, forced births or baby farms.
2. My recollection is that patriots in America are having far more children than the totalitarian types. Hence the desperate gambit to import poor hordes in through the southern border. But as Texas shows, it doesn't take long for these people to figure out that marxist policies are not their friend. My brother in the Dallas area notes that most 2nd gen kids of Mexican parents are more Texan than alot of Texans. I'd be interested if Texas Dude agrees w that. Point being, these illegals are no doubt a strain on the social net but arent voting lockstep Dem. Hence the Dem plan to use their mere presence in a city to give cover for widespread election rigging. It doesn't matter how many votes you steal if the broad perception is that an area is overwhelmingly Blue. License to steal.
Grant