China, Russia, Black

It's a bit of a slow day so all I have to offer is a bit of commentary. However, Conrad Black and Tucker Carlson have some quality commentary today, so ...

Conrad Black has a wide ranging article that addresses America's rivalry with China. Here's what I like about it. Too many "conservatives" have fallen into the trap of criticizing Zhou for being soft on Russia--it's a cheap but ultimately stupid approach. Stupid, because it's at odds with Trump's sensible approach to Russia, which was thwarted by the Globalist/Deep State set. Adopting Globalist/Deep State talking points simply isn't the way forward for intelligent conservatives who have our nation's interests at heart. It may be fine for National Review, but not for conservatives. Conrad Black, after noting the moral disarray that is roiling our national life, disposes of this fallacy very quickly:

China’s COVID Coup 

China deserves credit for a remarkable feat of strategic improvisation in translating a public health crisis into a large economical and geopolitical advance at the expense of the West.

Excerpts:

The American indulgence in an entire summer of white-hating, statue-toppling, rioting, and denigration of American history, freedom, and values astonished the world. Moreover, it helped China propagate its message that democracy leads to chaos and waste and that the United States is an unreliable and unstable country.

I hate to say this but ... It just may be true that the United States is an unreliable and unstable country. Two words: Donald Trump. He attempted to restore reliability and stability to our foreign policy, and look what happened to him. If you were a foreign leader, how far out on a limb would you go if asked to do so by an American president? Would you assume that America would have your back? Well? That's where we are.

Controversy Swirling Around Chinese Defector

Red State, which has the lead on information releases regarding the Chinese defector--said to be former MSS head of counterintelligence Dong Jingwei--who is reported to have provided blockbuster inside information regarding the release of Covid-19 from the Wuhan labs, is reporting tonight about the controversy around their stories:

Reactions to RedState's Exclusive Reporting on Chinese Defector Dong Jingwei Show Disturbing Pattern

The whole long story is mostly Jennifer Van Laar defending her reporting--which is entirely understandable.

However, what caught my attention was a quote of Pat Lang. This quote does appear at Lang's blog, Turcopolier, so it reflects his views:

Comments from Col. Patrick Lang who at the Defense Intelligence Agency, was the defense intelligence officer (DIO) for the Middle East, South Asia and counter-terrorism, and later, the first director of the Defense Humint Service.

At the DIA, he was a member of the Defense Senior Executive Service. He participated in the drafting of National Intelligence Estimates. From 1992 to 1994, all the U.S. military attachés worldwide reported to him.

These are his thoughts on Chinese Defector “Dong”:

OK pilgrim turcopoles, here is the deal. This man, as Chinese counter-intelligence boss looked around the IC and decided that he was most likely to survive an internal leak if he defected to DIA.

That means that in spite of the fact that DIA had an internal Chinese mole (recently arrested at DIA request by the FBI), the rest of the agencies are worse in the level in Chinese intelligence penetration not only of their analytic people but also of their operations staff.

How do I know that? Material from the defector (Dong) would not normally be shared with analysts if it had his name in it. His identity would be held in operational channels.

Clearly, this man believes that; CIA. army intelligence, naval intelligence, USAF intelligence and all the rest are heavily penetrated. pl

*Someone asked about how the info was released, here is his very strategic response:

“I suspect that DIA deliberately leaked this info to make it more difficult for CIA to try to take him away from them. I would have done that.”

Here's the long and the short. Controversy swirls, and we have no real way of assessing the reality behind it all. All we can do is wait and see.

Intel Work, Criminal Work--Today's FBI?

Yesterday I did a lengthy analysis of Shipwreckedcrew's shortcoming's in discussing the Russia Hoax--especially the role of Carter Page and the key fact of Page's involvement with the FBI's hugely important case against Russian officials in New York. The actual nature of the charges may not have been terribly earth shaking, but in the world of counterintelligence (CI) and foreign policy the case was huge. Page's targeting by the FBI simply cannot be understood without a full understanding of Page's role in that case and his falling out with the FBI.

I followed that up a bit later with Somebody Tell SWC To Stop Digging! That post was very brief and was simply intended to show that SWC doesn't really have a clue about the FBI's "intelligence" work--more properly speaking, National Security work. Since that post was so short I'll quote it in its entirety:

I can't believe it when prosecutors say sh*t like this:

@shipwreckedcrew:

It might end up tanking the criminal case. But building a criminal case is not what intelligence division agents are focused on when they are trying to figure out if Scientist X is a spy or not a spy. The only goal for the intelligence agent is to get an answer to that question.

The FBI has an "Intelligence Division" and a "Criminal Division" -- they do separate kinds of work.  The "Intelligence Division" is not gathering evidence for purposes of a court proceeding.  They have more "leeway" for their conduct.  Their goal is to simply get information.

He was a prosecutor and doesn't understand that espionage is a criminal offense? 

Later, reader Jim pointed me to an article at the Cato Institute:

Bad Incentives Lead FBI Agent to Accuse Chinese‐​Born Canadian Researcher of Being a Spy

Cato, of course, is a pretty doctrinaire libertarian think tank, and you can read about it here. I oppose much of the policy agenda that Cato advances, and for our purposes here I'll point out that Cato advocates for very liberal immigration policies and opposed President Trump's policies. The article must therefore be read with certain filters working. On the other hand, it offers an entrance into a somewhat different world than most readers may be familiar with and may help clear up misunderstandings such as SWC demonstrates.

The thesis of the Cato article is that the FBI and prosecutors, operating under pressure to find spies, find spies. In a way it's a bit like a CI version of, when all you've got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Looked at from a different angle, it can lead to "bad incentives" such as framing innocent Chinese professors in order to impress your superiors and gain promotion. Cato is very much of the view that the Chinese professor is most likely innocent--and for all I know from my distance Cato may be right:

Is Chinese Defector Shaking Up USIC--And US Politics?

Earlier this evening commenter AmericanCardigan passed along claimed information from Hot Air that the Chinese defector who's been providing information regarding the Wuhan origins of Covid-19 is the former head of CI for the PRC's Ministry of State Security (MSS). I commented at the time--just a few hours ago: 

[The claim is] tantalizing, but towards the middle mention is made of something that jumped to my mind immediately:

"would a spy-catcher be in position to know what went on at the Wuhan Institute of Virology with SARS-CoV-2?"

Never say never, reality can surprise. But there's also the matter of need to know--and a counterintelligence guy would have zero need to know about anything going on at Wuhan. Except concerns about foreign spies. Not the kind of detailed science we're hearing about.

Nevertheless, Red State--which seems to be the conduit for information about this defector--is confirming what hours ago were still rumors--Chinese Defector's Identity Confirmed, Was Top Counterintelligence Official:

Not Gonna Hold Back!

That's what we're being told about Zhou when he meets with Vlad--he's not gonna hold back. 

Meanwhile he's warming up at something called the G-7, where democratic leaders gather at the bottom of history's slippery slope and bloviate about becoming more "gender neutral" and "feminine":

.@BorisJohnson: G7 nations must build back in a “greener,” “more gender neutral and perhaps a more feminine way” pic.twitter.com/nLbYzGDk7d

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) June 11, 2021

Who thinks Putin--or Xi--would've been impressed had they been present?

Briefly Noted: China Won, But Who Won Georgia?

I'm heading out to give blood soon, but here are two good reads I noticed this morning.

The first is Conrad Black offering his big picture view of who won the Covid Panic. His answer is simple: China won. They were ruthless and opportunistic:

Major Update On The Chinese Defector Scoop

Red State is running a brief but explosive article that sheds additional light on Adam Housley's "scoop" regarding a high level Chinese defector who confirms the lab origins of Covid:

EXCLUSIVE: High-Ranking Chinese Defector Has 'Direct Knowledge' of Several Chinese Special Weapons Programs

While the article doesn't say so directly, the clear inference from what's said is that this defector came initially to the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). DIA has been debriefing the defector for the last three months and withheld information from other Intel Community agencies--FBI and CIA are specifically mentioned--because DIA believes those agencies have been penetrated by Chinese "spies or sources".

Presumably the other agencies are now being allowed access to the defector:

FBI Director Christopher Wray was “ambushed” with the information, they say, and Langley [the CIA] was also unaware. Sources say DIA leadership kept the defector within their Clandestine Services network to prevent Langley and the State Department from accessing the person, whose existence was kept from other agencies because DIA leadership believes there are Chinese spies or sources inside the FBI, CIA, and several other federal agencies.

Note that this doesn't necessarily discredit anything that Adam Housley said--Housley was passing on what his FBI sources told him. There are a number of reasons why those sources may have concealed some of the facts.

The information provided to RedState corroborates and clarifies Thursday evening’s reporting by journalist Adam Housley. The defector is considered to be highly reliable--unlike Tony Fauci and other government funded scientists:

Sources tell RedState the defector has been with the DIA for three months and that he has provided an extensive, technically detailed debrief to US officials. In DIA’s assessment, the information provided by the defector is legitimate. Sources say the level of confidence in the defector’s information is what has led to a sudden crisis of confidence in Dr. Anthony Fauci, adding that U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) personnel detailed to DIA have corroborated very technical details of information provided by the defector.

UPDATED: More Evidence Of Demographic Woes In China

About a week ago we ran a post based on research by SinoInsider. That study pointed to evidence that China has been fiddling with its latest census numbers to conceal very bad demographic news. The numbers presented, according to this study, may have been intended to clumsily conceal the extent of the Covid disaster in China:  Is China Jiggering It's Census Numbers? And Why? At the same time, as we've emphasized in the past, the article affirmed that China has for decades been caught in a classic demographic trap. Despite its economic and technological progress, China is growing old before it grows rich, leaving an enormous portion of its population without provision for their old age. Meanwhile the numbers of the working age population continue to drastically shrink. Even worse, the birth rate among the working young also continues to fall, despite belated efforts to increase the number of births. That guarantees that the imbalance will only grow much worse in the future.

Today Fox News carries a story that, most likely, few will notice. Nevertheless, it's an important story as an indicator of how aware the PRC is of the scope of its demographic problem and of the dangers involved for China's future:

Is China Jiggering It's Census Numbers? And Why?

SinoInsider--a site that is connected to Falun Gong--has published a very interesting (and lengthy) study of the latest PRC census numbers. As with all other matters statistical involving the PRC, census stats are subject to ... fine tuning by the authorities. For various reasons. 

The authors of this study

China’s Census Data Hints at Scale of COVID Coverup

cover a number of reasons behind what they believe are jiggered population statistics, but as you can clearly see their main contention is that the jiggering is primarily intended to cover up the extent of Covid related deaths in China.

For reference, China claims that the total Covid deaths amount to 4,636, as of May 12, 2021. A priori, that does seem difficult to accept. After all, China remains a country not only with an enormous overall population--somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.4 billion--but also a country whose population is older than average and where multiple generations live in crowded conditions. One would expect that older people and those most at risk would have suffered greatly, and that that would be reflected in very high mortality figures. Anything other than that result would logically attract inquiry and require some explanation.

The conclusion of the study is rather sensational. The authors believe that Covid deaths in China over the past year could exceed "8 digits". "Could exceed 8 digits" means that Covid mortality could be greater than 10,000,000. That's a lot of people. It's obviously also not a result that China would be proud of or would consider as reflecting well on the PRC--in other words, it would be a statistic that the authorities would regard as ripe for fine tuning or ... jiggering.

If the authors of this study are even remotely on to something, this is a very big story.

Has China's Existential Crisis Come Five Years Early?

Guess what? I'm not an economist! Nevertheless, I urge you to read Zerohedge's article on China's forthcoming census report. The short story is this: While everyone knew that within the next five years China's overall population--which is already rapidly aging--would actually begin to decline, it's being reported by the Financial Times that that process began last year. 

Population decline in a country attempting to overtake the US economically and as a major strategic competitor is a very big deal, because it exacerbates already existing structural weaknesses:

Deflation Threat Looms As China Suffers First Population Decline Since 1949

China is battling not one but three vicious demons. The interconnected issues of insurmountable debts, deflation, and demographics threaten to sap the world's future growth potential. 

Fending off the 3 D's: debts, deflation, and demographics requires the People's Bank of China to slash borrowing costs and unleash an enormous amount of credit into the local economy to cover up the faltering demand that usually persists with demographic challenges.

The question we should be asking is China really on the "rise," as President Xi Jinping believes ...

Many of us will remember the good old days of Japan Inc., back in the 80s, and that's exactly the parallel that analysts are drawing to the bind the Chinese find themselves in. As Japan Inc. discovered, battling two vicious demons--debt and deflation--is bad enough, but when demographic collapse is added into the equation everything gets worse. The problem for China is that, despite the perception of China as a modern economic powerhouse, it is actually nowhere near as advanced as was Japan. In particular, China has a vast poor and aging work force population--and no definite plans in place to provide for their old age.

Briefly Noted: Legal News--And Russia

I had occasion to point out yesterday (An Independent Judiciary?) that President Trump's (and Mitch McConnell's) strategy of concentrating on confirming appellate level federal judges is paying dividends. Not all is smooth sailing, of course. The 9th Circuit can still be a problem (as recently in a 2A case), but it's still far better than when Trump took office. A couple of cases on this relatively slow news day (so far) illustrate the impact Trump's appellate judges are having.

Since I mentioned the 2A just now, a case from New Jersey is a good place to start. Defense Distributed is a TX company that distributes various 3d print files for firearms and firearm accessories. New Jersey's Attorney General, Gurbir Grewal, sent Defense Distributed letters in TX attempting to restrain Defense Distributed from doing its business in NJ and threatening to prosecute Defense Distributed. The federal district court in TX agreed with Grewal that those letters were insufficient to provide the TX court with jurisdiction in the case. However, the Fifth Circuit disagreed. The SCOTUS has now--by declining Grewal's petition for certiorari--agreed with the Fifth Circuit.

The practical effect of this jurisdictional decision is that NJ will now have to justify its conduct to an unsympathetic federal court in TX. The Truth About Guns points out that the Fifth Circuit

has already made it clear that it believes that governmental efforts to restrict Defense Distributed’s distribution of 3D files have very serious if not fatal First Amendment implications.

This complicates anti-gun matters for crusading officials in anti-2A states. The SCOTUS undoubtedly knew this.

There's more good news from the 6th Circuit (which includes Ohio). You can read a longer account here:

China's Population Woes

While China currently looks to be taking over the world, it faces serious problems. For right now, the PRC's economy is slowing significantly. But in the longer term the country looks to be caught in the classic ‘middle income trap’, in which the population grows old before the country becomes rich. 

Now comes news that China is poised to move into long term population decline, with nearly a third of its population above working age and new births plummeting. Overall, new births were down 15% from 2019, while in some regions the decline was as much as 30%. China lacks a true social security net and has relied on the younger generation to support the elderly, but this system will become increasingly strained as the population continues to age rapidly--and to shrink. For more specifics:

China population: Tumbling regional birth rates signal scale of country's ageing crisis

Note well--this isn't simply a 'problem'. It's a crisis for the economy and for the social fabric of the country.

The second half of the article goes into the implications of this crisis, beginning with a quote from an official at a government supported population think tank:

Briefly Noted: Green Jobs All Going To China?

Judging by Germany's experience, our out of jobs pipeline workers may not be making solar panels any time soon. As reported by James Delingpole at Breitbart: Green Jobs Collapse in Germany and Go to China Instead. What a Surprise! 

‘Green jobs’ in the German renewables sector have collapsed by 50 per cent in less than a decade. No prizes for guessing where they’ve gone instead – but here’s a clue: it begins with ‘C’ and ends with ‘-hina’.

If those workers and their families were already p*ssed, imagine how they'll feel when they find out where the jobs have gone!

According to Clean Energy Wire:

The number of jobs in the German renewables sector (production and installation) has fallen from about 300,000 in 2011 to around 150,000 in 2018, the German Trade Union Association (DGB) found in an analysis of employment in the energy transition.

The drop in employment is mostly due to the collapse of Germany’s solar power industry over the past decade, as many companies were forced out of business thanks to cheaper competitors from China scooping up most of the market. The number of jobs in solar PV panel production and installation fell from a record 133,000 in 2011 to under 28,000 seven years later.

In the wind industry, the number of jobs dropped from its record of roughly 108,000 in 2016 to under 70,000 just two years later. “Employment with respect to construction renewable energy installations has been very dynamic in the last 20 years, both in a negative and in a positive way,” the DGB said, arguing that many more jobs could be created in the sector again.

And, no, none of this is a surprise, nor is there any good news or any excuse for the politicians who are responsible:

Update On China And Our National Power Grid

On Tuesday Newsmax's Emerald Robinson stepped up and won the Stump The Chump Home Run Derby:

Wow... stump the chump!@EmeraldRobinson asks a completely cogent, pertinent question regarding @JoeBiden's actions regarding China and @presssec is completely unable to answer...why?
Should we call for a special counsel regarding the Biden's relationship with China? https://t.co/QSoFcGsY2w

— Tony Shaffer (@T_S_P_O_O_K_Y) January 26, 2021

So here we are--it's Friday and nobody associated with the Zhou regime has "circled back" to Emerald with an answer. Or ... anything:

It's Thursday and nobody from the Biden Administration has "circled back" to me about China & our national power grid.

— Emerald Robinson ✝️ (@EmeraldRobinson) January 28, 2021

I'm willing to go way, way out on a limb and posit a developing pattern.

What Was Biden Thinking About With That China EO?

I'm glad you asked. It's like this. It's complicated. I'll circle back ...

Good on WH @PressSec @JRPsaki for calling on @Newsmax's @EmeraldRobinson during today's briefing, who then asked about an executive order as it relates to China and the U.S. power grid.

Watch for Psaki's fellow lefties to demand she never call on Emerald again in 3, 2, 1.... pic.twitter.com/DSVyWmapKy

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) January 25, 2021

 On a more serious note ...

In Hard-Hitting Press Conference, Press Demands To Know Biden's Favorite Disney Princess https://t.co/vLKqM47s0R

— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) January 25, 2021

Biden Inc. Payback To China?

Yesterday, along with many others, we took a look at the new regime's anti-union initiatives--or, more exactly, its anti unionized workers initiatives. These initiatives were part of Biden Inc.'s executive orders targeting the energy industry. Another executive order that will have a significant negative impact on unionized workers also came to light, but it will also have an impact on the security of our nation's critical infrastructure:

Biden Rescinds Trump Order Banning Chinese Communist Involvement In US Power Grid

Far be it from me to be cynical, but this almost looks like payback. Ask yourself: If you were Chairman Xi, what type of favor would you be asking Biden Inc. for, while hoping to keep it under the radar? To me, this would fit the bill.

An emailer sent me this analysis of the national security implications behind this EO. I will preface his analysis by adding that, in national security circles, it has long been known that China has been targeting our critical infrastructure, so it's not as if no one could have warned the new regime about this

Dyer's Latest Update On The 'Key Supporting Effort'

Just yesterday the question of "Whatever happened to DNI Ratcliffe's report?" came up in the comments. That's Trump's Executive Order 13848, requires the DNI to submit an assessment of any foreign interference in US elections within 45 days of an election. That deadline has come and gone. Ratcliffe did indicate at one point that he was not getting all the cooperation he needed from some unnamed agencies of the federal government, but there's been no further word, except that the assessment is in process.  In light of some recent developments--as explained in Jen Dyer's latest very thorough article--it may be worth wondering whether Ratcliffe's assessment is now being deliberately withheld by the Trump administration for use at the proper time. As we'll see, not only Dyer but George Eliason at Creative Destruction Media offer good reason to believe that Trump is aware of such foreign interference--and that China may be one of the foreign actors involved.

The best way to start may be with Eliason's article, which Dyer cites. It's a long, technical article, but the title will give you at least an idea of what it contains.

GA’s SoS Raffensperger Gave Hackers Roadmap To Infiltrate Machines A Year Before Election

Eliason details some of Raffensperger's illegal shenanigans, but for our purposes this brief excerpt tells us what we want to know--the national security angle to the story of the Big Steal is very real:

In short, there is no security on the Dominion system at all. Most importantly, you’ll see how the election is being stolen from the inside. 

The stories about the election tallies being sent overseas to Germany, Rome, the UK, Canada, and other exotic places to be processed are true. Inside Dominion’s contract is a use of temporary foreign worker’s clause for the GA general election. This is Dominion’s contract with the State of Georgia.

Dominion hired workers in foreign countries to service the 2020 election. Dominion uses 3 or 4 levels of access keys to operate the Democracy Suite system. Just to be able to work from outside the United States, these foreign nationals working with the ballots need have master tech keys. With the tech keys every part of the system is open and every election file is available and changeable.

Obviously Trump knows all that, too--and undoubtedly lots more.

Briefly Noted: China Wants Your DNA

China is collecting the world’s DNA and the reason is sinister

Well, maybe this will help them discover the cure for cancer and become the beloved benefactor of all mankind. Then again ... maybe the reason isn't so altruistic.

UPDATED: China, Covid, Coup?

Yesterday I speculated briefly that the hysterical calls for new, even more draconian, Covid shutdowns could be part of the campaign to get the American public to shut up and accept a Biden as president. That, of course, follows on a Dem presidential campaign that was largely predicated on the false claim that Trump mishandled the Covid pandemic. 

This morning we find an article by Lloyd Billingsley that speculates that Covid itself may have been part of the plot against the president:

How the Wuhan Coronavirus Gained a Function

What did Dr. Anthony Fauci know, and when did he know it?

Billingsley focuses on an article by Anthony Fauci that was written in 2012. In the article Fauci addressed the problem of "gain of function" research on viruses that was being done in super secure labs in the US. "Gain of function" (GOF) means that viruses are manipulated in ways that enhance their functioning--render them more transmissible, able to infect more species, more deadly, etc. In short, gain of function renders a virus more dangerous. Such research has

“the potential to enhance the pathogenicity or transmissibility of potential pandemic pathogens (PPPs)” and has thus “raised biosafety and biosecurity concerns.”

 

The argument in favor of such research is that it may lead to more effective vaccines. Balanced against that theoretical advantage are two factors:

1. Few vaccines for naturally occurring viruses are, in fact, highly effective, and

2. There is a very real risk that the artificially enhanced virus could escape the lab and cause a pandemic. Or could be used to design "weaponized" viruses that would be potentially uncontrollable when released and easily portable by terrorists.

What Are These Hints About China About?

We're not getting definite information, but we are getting hints or suggestions that China may have been involved in the election fraud--probably through some tie in to Dominion. You may also remember that we discussed recently the fact--and this is a fact--that the FBI had a FISA on Patrick Ho. Andy McCarthy and Chuck Ross have written about this, cf. Highly Recommended--A Collusion Tale: China and the Bidens:

FISA Surveillance

United States intelligence agencies clearly took notice. As the Daily Caller’s Chuck Ross reports, our government obtained at least one FISA surveillance warrant that yielded evidence against Chi Ping Patrick Ho, one of CEFC’s heavyweights. The surveillance authorized by the FISA court included electronic eavesdropping as well as physical searching.

As Russiagate and the challenges to investigating it have made painfully clear, FISA surveillance is classified. The government applications and evidentiary showings that lead to it are closely guarded national-security secrets. Even on the rare occasions when evidence derived from FISA surveillance is used in court, as it was in Ho’s eventual prosecution for corruption crimes, the lawyers for the defendant and the trial prosecutors are not informed of the factual basis that predicated the surveillance. The full breadth of the counterintelligence investigation is not revealed publicly. The full range of targets remains secret, and we learn neither how long the monitoring went on nor what specific intelligence-gathering methods were employed.

Is it far fetched to think that the FISA was picking up the Bidens--Hunter and Joe and Jim? I don't think that's far fetched at all. To the contrary, I'd be surprised if that were not the case. Imagine the kinds of things that might have been discussed! Trump, politics, a presidential run? Why not?

Be that as it may, Seth J. Levy is offering a theory, a big picture theory of what's been going on, which of course suggests that there could be some big things coming down the line. See what you think: