Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Is Oregon Pointing The Way Forward?

Yesterday the story was that Oregon's super-liberal governor was returning the Oregon State Police to the streets of Portland, in the wake of the targeted hit on a Trump supporter by an Antifa death squad. The governor also claimed to be sending sheriff's deputies from outlying counties to Portland.

Problem: Not all the sheriff's departments bought off on the concept of sending deputies to be props in an ongoing, Dem supported, civic insurrection. Clackamas and Washington counties declined to send their deputies, in no uncertain terms. In fact, they put those terms into very cogent statements. Excerpts follow.

Clackamas County Sheriff’s Office:

Had Governor Brown discussed her plan with my office, I would have told her it’s about changing policy not adding resources.   Increasing law enforcement resources in Portland will not solve the nightly violence and now, murder.   The only way to make Portland safe again, is to support a policy that holds offenders accountable for their destruction and violence.   That will require the DA to charge offenders appropriately and a decision by the Multnomah County Presiding Judge not to allow offenders released on their own recognizance, and instead require bail with conditions.   The same offenders are arrested night after night, only to be released by the court and not charged with a crime by the DA’s Office.  The next night they are back at it, endangering the lives of law enforcement and the community all over again.

Washington County Sheriff Pat Garrett:

At this time, I do not plan to send deputies to work directly in Portland. PPB is a terrific partner and I am very sympathetic to what they are enduring. However, the lack of political support for public safety, the uncertain legal landscape, the current volatility combined with intense scrutiny on use of force presents an unacceptable risk if deputies were deployed directly.

Across the nation, many state governments are largely controlled by the politics of one or a handful of major cities--"Blue" cities--that are unrepresentative of most of the state in geographical terms. At the same time, we're hearing more and more about businesses and residents of those cities fleeing the violence that has engulfed Blue cities. Is this a sign of a beginning of a loose coalition between the suburbs and ex-urban areas with rural counties, a coalition based on a need to defend against the dysfunction of Blue cities and Blue state governments?

Kenosha may suggest another example of this trend. Salena Zito has an insightful article about Kenosha--city and county. I believe the article has run at a number of different sites, but here's a link that's ad free: Why Kenosha Riots Could Matter in November. Zito wrote a very prescient article during the Republican primaries in 2016 that previewed Trump's appeal that led to his victory in Michigan and other areas of the Upper Midwest, so her views are worth considering.

Here are a few things to understand about Kenosha and Kenosha County. Start with electoral politics. Kenosha has been deepest Blue for decades:

In presidential elections, Kenosha County has voted Democratic for most of the past century. In 2016, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate in 44 years to win the county; the last time this happened was when President Nixon carried it in his 1972 landslide.

Kenosha County went for Trump by just 250 votes, out of a population of 170,000. As Zito puts it: "It is the swingiest county in the swingiest 2020 state." It's classic aging rust belt, having lost the industries that had carried its economy and provided good jobs for so long, but making a comeback:

Kenosha County is bordered by Lake Michigan to its east, where it retains its early Rust Belt roots, thanks to the railroad and factories that lined it. Its western portion is rural. The center of the county is where it has seen the most growth in the past few years. 
Intersected by Interstate 94, linking it to Minneapolis, Madison, Milwaukee and Chicago, its growth is driven by location, an exodus from Illinois taxes and a renowned work ethic.

Enormous Amazon facilities and related businesses dominate the I-94 corridor now.

Then, demographically.

Despite those voting patterns,

The racial makeup of the county was 88.38% White, 5.08% Black or African American, and ...

Any white people you saw rioting and burning down Kenosha likely did NOT come from that 88% of the county's population. They came from out of county and out of state. That 88% were likely not at all amused at what happened.

So, Zito writes of the devastation and the safety concerns in what had been a relatively prospering area:

The vivid imagery in the days following the police shooting of Jacob Blake shows a town in devastation. Rioters blocked traffic. And they stole gasoline from a nearby gas station to start fires that took out numerous small businesses, car lots, an apartment building and a Family Dollar store. 
Other businesses that were not burned down nonetheless were looted and had their windows and doors smashed. 
It is a war zone, and no one wants to live in a war zone. No one wants their children and grandchildren to live in a war zone. No one wants to own and run a business in a war zone. 
Consequently, no candidate running for president should be silent about it. Because in moments like this, people want safety, security and to know elected officials have their back. 

Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Steil was on-site immediately. The Republican, who represents Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, which includes Kenosha, said the question he has heard from people on the scene in the aftermath of the wholesale destruction of the business district is: Who is going to step up? 
Steil said that after two nights of rioting, he was deeply concerned there were insufficient resources, so he asked local officials and community members if they were open to receiving additional support from the federal level. They said they were, and he called the White House. 
"I called the president, and he graciously gave me time to discuss what was playing out in Kenosha, and at my request, he called the governor and offered additional resources," explained Steil. 
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers "rejected that offer," Steil said. 
The next night, two people were shot and killed in the continuing mayhem.
Steil said Evers was extended the White House offer again the next day and accepted it. 
In 2016, Trump flipped the Great Lakes "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin due to the pull of cultural and economic concerns. No state embodied that shift better than Wisconsin. If security concerns in Kenosha persist, Nov. 3 may not shape up to be a good night for Democrats.

We're seeing this also playing out in Minnesota, where 6 mayors from Deepest Blue Iron Range cities have endorsed Trump--that's Bob Dylan country. People in Minnesota may be tiring of being hostages to the crazies in Minneapolis.

Yesterday my wife listened to the local CBS radio station's noon business report. There was an interview that was supposed to focus on "Business after the pandemic" in Chicago. Instead, the guest quickly brushed Covid aside and instead discoursed at length about the social dynamics--violence, looting, social dysfunction--that are devastating Chicago and leading businesses as well as affluent residents to flee. He went on at length about the consequences for Chicago's tax base, which doesn't require much imagination. How to pay for all the police overtime? And teachers are still getting paid to "teach" while the schools are closed and the "children" are shooting each other on the streets instead of developing literacy skills. Human capital aside, how can a major city allow that to continue?

And yet that's the policy of the Left. How long will suburbanites, especially women, align with that? Will they begin to see their interests as unmoored from those of the Blue city by the Lake?

Americans across the country will be voting for their future in November. How do they see that future?


  1. Saw this today. Was getting ready to share the link when I saw your post Mark. Interesting Gov thought she could form a coalition without communicating. Shameful.

    1. Not from there, but I have watched her. I don't think she was trying to "form a coalition without communicating". I believe she just though she has power and would use it. She does not tend to ask at anytime. She tends to order what she and her minions want. Typical of DSA types. Tough for her to find out her powers are limited....

  2. I can readily see a short-term vote coalescing around Trump.

    But the exodus from the cities, while entertaining, is really alarming. Those people do not associate their values-driven voting patterns with the lawlessness engulfing their homes; they will move to normal-ville and destroy it.

    I would almost rather see walls built around the cities to keep their faithful voters fully vested in the outcome of their elections.

    1. It may not be so bad. After all, a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged.

    2. Not always.
      Depends on many factors, e.g. the extent to which they've been brainwashed into SJW doctrine.

    3. I'd vote for walls to keep the cancer in.

  3. "teachers are still getting paid to "teach" while the schools are closed"
    Even when schools were open, their "teaching" was likely often only agitProp.
    Righties will even more often opt for Home Schooling. Maybe enough of them will vote for Defunding of Public Schools, at least in the burbs, if not in purple states.

  4. Any local sheriffs would need to be insane to offer support. Portland is a meat grinder with injured cops, reducing police presence in your area, and potential lawsuits.

    The Governor and Mayor have chosen No path to victory. Sounds like the action by the OR Governor was a sound bite to deflect blame from her, and put it in “White Extremists”. To get serious Oregon would need to call out the National Guard and Partner with the Feds got prosecutions. But, that would be admitting Trump was right, so little chance of it happening.

    A SWAG - the real reason the rioters moved on from the Portland Federal Courthouse was people were being Arrested with Federal Charges, 70 to date. So the rioters moved onto softer, less riskier targets.

    1. And a do nothing DA.

    2. Not really. He's doing something--enabling the crazies. That's Dem policy.

    3. Agreed, not a do-nothing DA.

      He is doing exactly what he promised to do and what Soros paid for him to do.

  5. For seeing what is really going on in Chicago:

    The government is doing an amazing job of destroying the city. Same thing is happening in NYC.

    1. When will the people leaving finally stand up and tell their failed leaders it is time for them to leave?

    2. The destruction is deep and will have long lasting effects. No easy fix.

  6. Democrat leadership and policies must never be seen to be the abysmal failures that they are. People tend not to vote for failure. It's not in their best interest.

  7. Given the over-the-top insanity of many Democrat Governors and Mayors, is it reasonable to ask if this behavior is actually intentional political suicide? IOW, perhaps the Party Elders have determined that the only way to resurrect to old Democrat coalition and restore sanity is to engineer a major election defeat that forces a purge and reboot. There are still many sane Democrat politicians in office, but they have been pushed to the back bench by the fire-breathing far Left extremists in their party. That dynamic will not change until something drastic occurs, and this may be the only way to achieve that. Plus, Trump is not making any unforced errors and the voting fraud initiative is likely to fail now that exposure is shining a light on that technique. So perhaps they figure that since they are going to lose anyway, why not lose big and force a reset leading into the 2022 election cycle?

    1. "Trump is not making any unforced errors"

      Yes, that's key. He's letting Blue city residents see what they voted for. I'm for continuing that policy as long as possible.

    2. Comey's mini-me in Portland doing the "all is wonderful" propaganda stuff:

    3. "intentional political suicide" - this is like asking Coca Cola if they changed the flavor as a way to counter Pepsi's growth. People just aren't that smart.

      I think they really thought that full-on #Resistance was the path to victory. They probably realize their error now, but they're committed to this course.

      If they really wanted to purge the far left, then they would find a way to get those crazies out of the picture. They're only hope now is that normals respond in kind so that they can reassign blame.

    4. A different take on such issues, from J.E. Dyer, at :

      "The Democrats’ turn on a dime, from *ignoring* the riots to *condemning* them, occurred within a couple of *hours* of one event: the shootings by Kyle Rittenhouse in Kenosha.
      That’s the event the radical playbook was waiting for. That was the event that opened the narrative to the prospect of a two-sided street war, with actual pushback and violence coming from the “other side.”

      Up to then, there was obviously nothing two-sided about what was going on....

      But once Kyle Rittenhouse had fired his first shot, the Left had something to condemn, that could be said to involve “violence” from the “other side,” and could be characterized as a *two-sided* outbreak of vicious extremism."

    5. (Sorry this is a little long!)

      Regarding Dems' goal or hopes in fomenting the mayhem, I think two factors we can never ignore are how it diverts attention from the Democrats' greatest vulnerabilities this year, and also how it radicalizes their followers so that even insofar as attention IS paid to these two issues, those followers don't really care, anyway.

      I think the below four issues are particularly dangerous to Dems:

      1) Joe Biden's ongoing cognitive decline and his coming refusal to do any proper and fair debating (and other obvious weaknesses of the Biden-Harris ticket, including the belief by most that Biden is an avatar of the far left and that eventually Harris will replace Biden as president)

      2) what will soon be coming from the Durham shop

      3) the negative effects from lockdowns, particularly on the economy and schooling, and

      4) the obvious fraud and ballot-insecurity potential of massive mail-in ballots combined with the equally obvious fact that it is as simple as can be to conduct in-person voting in ways that are all but completely risk-free

      Just imagine if the riots weren't happening and if no other hoax distraction besides the virus shenanigans were there in place of it. While much deception, division and confusion can be sown by the virus alone, the environment without the riots would still be normal enough that voters would be wanting to see more of the candidates and would be paying more attention to more obvious issues, like the four listed above. Such voter focus is death to the Biden-Harris ticket and not at all good for down-ticket races, either.

      That’s the distraction angle of the riots.

      The radicalization angle is equally easy to see. Once DOJ unleashes whatever hounds it has to release, the obvious radicalization furthered by the riots helps Dems to argue that it’s all just politics while at the same time helping to make the Dem-Repub divide so deep and wide that there’s just no crossing over it from a Dam voter perspective — no matter what wrongdoing is shown to have occurred. The same general dynamic should keep many Dems and not a few independents from being sufficiently bothered by other Dem weaknesses, including the other three issues I listed above. I’d say all of this applies particularly to many of the Bernie Sanders people. Enough leftist radicalization now locks them in and gives Biden room to head back toward the center as we get closer to election crunch time.

      All in all then, in order to get a better idea of what Dems hope to get from the the mayhem and why they’re willing to risk its negative effects, just imagine what would probably be going on if relative peace and calm were with us instead. I guarantee this peaceful alternative is something Dem bigwigs have thought about a lot and found to be, for their purposes, drastically wanting.

      PS: It’s also no doubt the case that Dems hope the riots to lead to more incidents they can spin to blame on Trump, like Rittenworth and Blake and, they hope, things a whole lot worse for Trump than those.

    6. "they're *only* hope now is that normals respond in kind".

      No, they have other hopes, see *Codevilla*, at :
      "In July, the Democratic National Committee engaged some 600 lawyers to litigate the outcome, possibly in every state.
      No particular outcome of such litigations is needed, to set off a systemic crisis. The existence of the litigations themselves is enough, for one or more blue state governors to *refuse to certify* that state’s electors to the Electoral College, so as to prevent the college from recording a majority of votes for the winner....
      were conservatives not unanimously to roll over, and were a few incidents to result in... conflict between police forces on opposite sides of the affairs, America might well experience an explosion of pent-up rage, less like the American Civil War of the 19th century, and more like the horror that bled Spain in the 20th."

      I'll say it again, the smashing win Mon., by the DS in the DC Circus, was likely of Dred Scott case-magnitude.
      The tinder is building, waiting for a spark to spur the flames.

    7. You're welcome, of course!
      More from Codevilla:
      "The combination of the ruling class constituents’ fired-up *insatiability*, the rulers’ inability to control them, and the limits of conservative Americans’ patience, is sure to cause a crisis that ends up, in some kind of “Caesarism” of the Left or the Right."

  8. There are no words to describe the NYT's Bizarro World take on Aaron Danielson's murder by Antifa thugs:

    "As right-wing groups increasingly move to confront protesters in U.S. cities, demonstrators are assessing how to keep themselves safe"

    1. Well, shoot first is a tried and true method "peaceful protest" by Leninist standards.

      "We will forego guns for democracy, until we get control of the guns."

  9. “Sheriff Pat Garrett”? Wonder if he’s any relation to the one made famous by the New Mexico Lincoln County War of 1878 & his association with outlaw Billy the Kid?

    Sidebar: actor James Coburn portrayed him in Sam Peckinpah’s 1973 classic “Pat Garrett & Billy the Kid”.