Events Leading to the Russia Hoax Tipping Point

What follows is a blog by commenter Mike Sylwester. While I don't ordinarily do this, I've been pulled in a number of directions recently. Mike has done a lot of research on the Downer-Papadopoulos aspect of the Russia Hoax and I believe his blog here will provide a useful framework for discussion on a topic that has become somewhat controversial.

Obviously, we don't know the whole story yet--that has become apparent in the last few days. Mike's focus on the process helps draw attention to the anomalies in the way Downer's "information" was handled. In any bureaucratic setting, anomalies in process must lead to suspicion.

As you read, you may wish to keep the Carter Page matter in mind, since at the same time that the Papadopoulos matter was being used to open Crossfire Hurricane--as the story goes--Bruce Ohr was conveying Chris Steele's Carter Page narrative to Lisa Page, Andy McCabe, and Peter Strzok.

Here's the distinction I see between the use of the Papadopoulos material and the Carter Page material.

Obviously, any domestic investigation would need to be handled by the FBI. The advantage to using the Papadopoulos material--which seems clearly to be a CIA operation--is that it insulated both the CIA and the FBI by inserting a supposedly independent operation by a "friendly" foreign power: Australia. In that way the CIA and FBI could pretend to be merely conduits of foreign intelligence rather than the primary gatherers.

By contrast, while the Carter Page narrative of "Russian collusion" is superficially attractive, it falls apart as soon as Page's relationship to both the CIA and the FBI is known. Worse, concealing that relationship to maintain the credibility of the narrative can only be done by lying or hiding the ball. This, to me, explains why the FBI and CIA would have preferred to base all on the very lame Papadopoulos narrative. When DoJ turned down the idea of a FISA on Papadopoulos, however, the FBI had to turn to Carter Page.

Mike's blog follows:

And Meanwhile: Durham

Yes, John Durham is out there and he's busy. Thomas Lifson has some fascinating coverage of Durham today: Australian media reporting that US Atty Durham has interviewed Alexander Downer.

Follow the link for the details, but ...

Durham has interviewed Alexander Downer, the Aussie "diplomat", intel operative, and Clinton errand boy. He has also interviewed Erika Thompson, the Aussie intel operative who was involved in the Papadopoulos setup, as well.

Sky News of Australia "interviewed" Downer about all this, and Downer was defensive and decidedly mum:

In an interview with Sky News on Sunday, Mr Downer dodged questions about his role in spurring the Russian collusion investigation. 

Mr Downer said he would not talk about the meeting in London’s Kensington Wine Rooms in 2016 which set off the chain reaction resulting in the investigation. 

“There is now in the United States yet another inquiry into this and (Australian Prime Minister) Scott Morrison has said Australia will fully co-operate with that inquiry so that’s what the government is doing and so the plan is to say nothing during the course of that inquiry,” he said.

Full cooperation--that's what we want.

Two Recent Under The Radar Stories: Comey The Editor? Clinton Foundation In Oz

There have been two lengthy stories recently at TGP that deserve attention--but don't seem to have received much. Although I read both stories I haven't tried to cover them here because the details are somewhat complex, and because I'm hoping to see further reporting on both stories.

Commenter Mike Sylwester linked the most recent story yesterday in a comment. The title tells it all, as far as the conclusion goes: Fired FBI Director Comey Likely Doctored His Memos In Effort to Take Down President Trump and the US Senate May Have the Evidence! The idea is that Comey may have altered some of his famous memos that he wrote after meetings with Trump, in order to heighten the impression of "obstruction." In fact, it is suggested that this move on Comey's part may have been a leadup to the appointment of Mueller as Special Counsel--may have been the true focus of Team Mueller pretty much going back to the original post election FBI operations. The argumentation is detailed and, as I said, complex. However, I found it at least persuasive. It certainly shows how much ground Barr/Durham have to cover.

The second story plays into the assertion that I made not long ago--that it defied probability that Australian PM, Scott Morrison, traveled to Washington to meet with Trump only about Aussie spy and "diplomat" Alexander Downer's meetings with George Papadopoulos. The second story presents another aspect of US connections with Australia that may well have been part of the discussions: Clinton Foundation Bilked $130 Million From Australia – After 2016 Election Directors Fled Country from Headquarters Housed in a Shack on a Dirt Road Outside Melbourne. The reporting at TGP relies on investigation by a retired Australian detective, Michael Smith.

It has long been known that Downer was instrumental in funneling at least $25 million to the Clinton Foundation. Smith's investigation suggests that the total amount reached $130 million--Australian government that was, of course, funded by Australian taxpayers. That's not chump change, and yet no one seems interested in learning what Australia was supposed to receive in return.

From that start, Smith's reporting goes in considerable detail into the connections between Australia and all the major players with whose names we're all familiar: Mifsud, Brennan, Comey, and many more. As I said at the beginning, it's too complex to easily summarize but well worth the read. The takeaway is that there was far more going on between the Australian branch of the Globalist Deep State (Five Eyes) and the American British branches than Downer's meeting with Papadopoulos. The closing of the TGP write up graphically illustrates the suspicious nature of it all, with the emphasis on the Clinton Foundation. The caption in the photo below was obviously added:

Aussies got nothing from the Clintons in return – 

What did Australian taxpayers get in return for these millions of dollars? Our [Australian]  media are not even asking the question. 

Instead it’s left to bloggers like Michael Smith to point out that the Clinton Foundation headquarters in Australia is a suburban shack in outer Melbourne and all the nominated directors have fled the country.

Looks Like I Was Right About Barr And Oz

Just last Sunday I wrote, suggesting that cooperation between AG Barr's investigation and the Australian government may indicate much more than the Downer/Papadopoulos narrative that we're all familiar:

Barr has asked Trump to request various foreign governments--"allies"--to cooperate with his investigation into the Russia Hoax. The Brits, the Italians, and the Aussies. We've all heard about Alexander Downer and his London meets with George Papadopoulos, but could Oz's role in the Russia Hoax go a bit deeper that that? Is that why Trump had that chin wag a bit over a week ago with Aussie PM Scott Morrison? The NYT, with it's own unique spin, assures us that, yes, Trump did discuss the Russia Hoax with Morrison: Trump Pressed Australian Leader to Help Barr Investigate Mueller Inquiry’s Origins.

Aussie state visits to the US are very rare--as other news outlets noted. On the other hand, Barr is a busy man and couldn't be bothered going all that way to Oz. So when Trump told Morrison to get his ass to Washington ASAP, Morrison jumped! But, would Trump have really had Morrison come all this way if it was ONLY about Alexander Downer?

Now (h/t GP) we hear that there almost certainly is a lot more going on with Barr's investigation as regards Alexander Downer and the Aussies, so my guess seems to have come out right:

McCabe Had A Texting Buddy At MI5

Not much to say except that, yes, these text do shed light. MSN reports: Secret texts cast light on UK's early role in Trump-Russia inquiry. Light is always welcome, right? Even when it reveals that the upper echelons of the FBI appear to have been populated by kooks and criminals.

Two of the most senior intelligence officials in the US and UK privately shared concerns about “our strange situation” as the FBI launched its 2016 investigation into whether Donald Trump’s campaign was colluding with Russia, the Guardian has learned. 

Text messages between Andrew McCabe, the deputy director of the FBI at the time, and Jeremy Fleming, his then counterpart at MI5, now the head of GCHQ, also reveal their mutual surprise at the result of the EU referendum, which some US officials regarded as a “wake-up call”, according to a person familiar with the matter. 

While Russia had previously been viewed as a country that would seek to interfere in western elections, the Brexit vote was viewed by some within the FBI as a sign that Russian activities had possibly been successful, the person said. 

Their exchanges offer new insights into the start of the FBI’s Russia investigation, and how British intelligence appears to have played a key role in the early stages. 

In one exchange in August 2016, Fleming noted that members of the FBI and MI5 had “met on our strange situation”, a veiled reference to discussions about Russian activities, according to the source. 

The Complexities Of The Russia Hoax Investigation

OK, so what's taking so long? Why aren't we seeing some indictments in the Russia Hoax? What could possibly be causing the delay, except the blindingly obvious reason--for some: Bill Barr is a Deep State plant intent on protecting the DoJ and FBI and undermining President Trump?

Actually, there are a lot of reasons for the delay, and the number one reason is the sheer complexity of the Russia Hoax--the number of moving parts, if you will. As I've remarked in the past, we're used to thinking of the Russia Hoax largely from a US-centric perspective, with our focus on the CIA and FBI, with a somewhat lower awareness of what was going on at DoJ and the Department of State. Coordination of the Russia Hoax at the White House, as it seems to me, comes in last place.

That isn't to say that those of us who have been following the unraveling of the Russia Hoax haven't given a thought to the foreign angle. We know about Christopher Steele's important role--although we usually think of that in terms of his interactions with US players: Bruce Ohr, Glenn Simpson, and other US government functionaries and media figures. We know, too, about George Papadopoulos' escapades with UK based figures, such as Stefan Halper, Joseph Mifsud and the Aussie "diplomat" Alexander Downer. Carter Page? For the most part he figures in the phrases "the Carter Page FISA application," rather than his interaction with Halper and other UK figures.

Nevertheless, as we attempted to show a bit over a month ago in The Shape Of The Coup Plot: Obama And The Brits, that overseas connection looms increasingly large in the Russia Hoax investigation. One sign of that is the announcement of the agreement by the UK government to allow Christopher Steele to be interviewed by US government investigators. Well, officially, that was Christopher Steele who said he was willing to be interviewed, but in the real world we all know that that doesn't happen without UK government approval--if you need to have that explained, follow the first link in this paragraph. The point is that without a thorough understanding the foreign angle--and especially the UK angle--Barr will never truly "get his arms around" the real scope of the Russia Hoax. And that will take time--time to identify the players, time to do thorough background investigations not only on known players but also their connections, time to develop investigative and interview strategies.

Briefly Noted: Papadopoulos Promises To Publish Emails

It looks like things will continue to happen, new revelations. This evening George Papadopoulos is promising to publish emails between himself and Erika Thompson, whom he characterizes as "Alexander Downer's Australian intel handler"--highly unlikely to be the actual situation, IMO, but, whatever. Erika Thompson, of course, is the Australian "diplomat" who contacted Papadopoulos in London and arranged for him to meet with the top Australian diplomat--and FBI/CIA informant--in London.

George Papadopoulos‏

@GeorgePapa19

I will be publishing emails between myself and Alexander Downer’s Australian intel handler, Erika Thompson, over the next few weeks detailing the extent the Australians were actively seeking to sabotage Trump and his team with fake stories.

4:31 PM - 16 Mar 2019

This will no doubt be a further embarrassment for the Australian government--our "allies". It will also move Barr's whole "spying" narrative further along in the public consciousness, while Dems play their games in Congress.

The False Pretenses Behind The FBI's Trump-Russia Case

Andy McCarthy has a lengthy article today that ties the Mueller Report's--and, by extension, the FBI's--false pretenses surrounding their George Papadopoulos narrative in with the Steele Dossier. This is important for an understanding of what was going on at the FBI and DoJ during the summer of 2016. On the one hand, everything seems to be about the Steele Dossier, on the other hand the anti-Trump narrative (CIA, FBI, DoJ pre-Barr, Hillary partisans, Congressional Dems) have attempted, unconvincingly, to claim that the FBI's case (Crossfire Hurricane) was opened because of information received from the Australian diplomat/informant, Alexander Downer. This seeming disconnect is what McCarthy sets out to address in The FBI’s Trump-Russia Investigation Was Formally Opened on False Pretenses. Because of the factual density of McCarthy's account I'll try to separate out the essentials.

To start from McCarthy's conclusion, McCarthy concludes that Papadopoulos' interaction with Joseph Mifsud and Alexander Downer was purposely distorted and reframed to obscure the FBI's reliance on the Steele Dossier.

Prior to early July, when the FBI began receiving Steele-dossier reports (which the State Department would also soon receive), the intelligence community — particularly the CIA, under the direction of its hyperpolitical director, John Brennan — had been theorizing that the Trump campaign was in a corrupt relationship with Russia. Thanks to the Steele dossier, even before Downer reported his conversation with Papadopoulos to the State Department, the Obama administration had already been operating on the theory that Russia was planning to assist the Trump campaign through the anonymous release of information that would be damaging to Clinton. They had already conveniently fit the hacked DNC emails into this theory. 

Downer’s report enabled the Obama administration to cover an investigative theory it was already pursuing with a report from a friendly foreign government, as if that report had triggered the Trump-Russia investigation. In order to pull that off, however, it was necessary to distort what Papadopoulos had told Downer.

That's McCarthy's conclusion. To reach it, he needs to show that Papadopoulos' role was, in fact, systematically distorted. And that, I believe, he does. The easiest way to get a handle on what Mueller does in his Dossier is to go back to the beginning with McCarthy and watch McCarthy compare what is presented in the prosecution of Papadopoulos with what Mueller says about Papadopoulos in his Dossier.

UPDATED: George Papadopoulos: Deep State Target

George Papadopoulos is out of prison--he served 14 days back in November, a sort of joke consolation sentence for Team Mueller--and putting his time to good use. He has a book out all about his experiences with the Deep State and how he was framed as part of the attempted coup against Trump: Deep State Target: How I Got Caught in the Crosshairs of the Plot to Bring Down President Trump.

Fox News spoke to him, and he has some interesting things to say about his interrogation. Bear in mind that Joseph Mifsud--the "professor" he refers to--is almost certainly an FBI asset, as commenter Mike Sylwester has convincingly argued. Probably works for CIA and MI6, as well. While the "official" accounts say that Mifsud is "missing," the truth is almost certainly (see previous link, if you haven't already) that the three named intel agencies told him he needed to adopt a new identity that they would provide for him and to relocate. The point being that the Deep State--to include the British relations--didn't want Mifsud being questioned by people like HPSCI or OIG or John Huber. What? You thought it was to protect him from the Russians? LOL!

Anyway, here's the interesting part of what Papadopoulos had to tell Fox. It illustrates how the whole Team Mueller extension of the Russia Hoax worked. Recall that yesterday I quoted Mark Penn to that effect:

It’s an abuse of power without precedent. The Mueller investigation systematically went after everyone named in the Steele dossier, using the toughest possible tactics. Rather than investigate the crime, they investigated the people, finding unrelated crimes to use as leverage to squeeze out any potential drops of evidence related to collusion.

Is The Deep State Feeling The Heat?

Bad as it may have been, the worst of the Russia Hoax was not the abuse of the FISA electronic surveillance regime for political purposes. Nor is the worst even the patent involvement of our intelligence agencies--and in particular the FBI and CIA--in electoral politics. No, the worst aspect of the Russia Hoax is that our intelligence agencies, including elements of DoJ and the State Department cooperating with the Clinton campaign, enlisted the intelligence services of foreign powers--first in their effort to defeat the candidacy of Donald Trump and, when that effort failed, turning their efforts to what can only be described as an attempted coup against the elected President of the United States. Shockingly, these later stages of the Russia Hoax have included members of the Legislative Branch who, in the face of clear evidence that the true collusion with foreign powers was that of the Clinton campaign, have worked to delay and to ultimately obstruct Congressional oversight and investigation of the entire Russia Hoax. So reckless was this conspiracy that the players have not hesitated to cynically stir up public hysteria against Russia, a foreign power which, while often hostile to US interests, had no role in colluding with the Trump campaign.

Shortly before the Midterm elections, in the face of determined stonewalling of Congressional oversight by DoJ and the FBI, the President played what has always been his trump (!) card--he ordered the declassification of most of the documents that are central to the Russia Hoax. Led by DAG Rosenstein, the forces of the Deep State were able to delay the release of the documents, but President Trump made it clear that he favors declassification--and sooner, rather than later. Two weeks later, an uneasy stalemate persists. DoJ and Team Mueller have claimed that release of the documents would constitute "obstruction"--a patently bogus claim, but Trump has extracted the resignation of Jeff Sessions and his replacement with Matthew Whitaker as the Acting AG, who also replaces Rosenstein as the supervisor of Team Mueller. The anti-Trump forces are currently attempting to stymie Trump's latest move with attacks on the Whitaker appointment, while declassification hangs fire. And Democrats, newly empowered by their capture of the House, are threatening to tie Trump up with investigations of his finances, on the pretext of the Russia Hoax.

Nevertheless, there is maneuvering going on behind the scenes, and evidence that the Deep State forces of both the US and the UK are feeling Trump's pressure. The Daily Telegraph, in a surprisingly little remarked upon article, informed the world that MI6 is battling Donald Trump to stop him from releasing documents linked to the "Russia probe".

The article itself is an interesting mix of special pleading and disinformation, clearly reflecting the views and interests of the British Deep State. For starters, it's long been clear that the "Russia probe" is really the "Trump probe"--any purported focus on Russia amounts to no more than the hope that, if enough mud (Russia Hoax material) is thrown at the wall (Trump), some of it may stick. For the rest, the article coyly offers a glimpse of what we all know to be true--the British were deeply involved in the Russia Hoax almost from the start--while attempting to maintain deniability with transparent euphemisms. For example, we read that

Fake News, Real News, Hot News

On the Fake News front we have some depressing real news--or, as real as polling gets:

John Hinderaker at Powerline, in The Ultimate Fake News, digs down into a poll run by The Economist/YouGov during the first week of November. The poll asked: Did Russia “tamper with vote tallies in order to get Donald Trump elected President?” Hinderaker points out what every sentient human person now knows for fact:

There is no evidence–I repeat, none–that Russia “tampered with vote tallies.” To my knowledge, no one has claimed that Russia tampered with vote tallies. I am not aware of any plausible theory on which a foreign power could tamper with vote tallies. To say that Russia tampered with vote tallies is as credible as asserting that the moon is made of green cheese.

Nevertheless.

The poll reveals, paraphrasing Hinderaker's summary, that