Saturday, March 14, 2020

MAJOR UPDATE: Paul Sperry: US Has Most ICU Beds In World

In a story that I quoted yesterday regarding relative preparedness of various Western countries, the US was omitted from the stats presented. Obviously, by far the most relevant stat is the number of ICU beds available. The reason is simple. Since as many as 10-15% of Covid-19 infected persons may require hospitalization and intensive, isolated care, a lack of sufficient ICU beds means that desperately sick people will not be getting treatment and the mortality rate will soar. That's why China had to crash build two entire new hospitals and why Italy's healthcare system is currently getting overwhelmed. For comparison, if I recall correctly, the highest number of ICU beds in Europe--as listed in the article--was in Germany, with about 8 per 100K. I'm taking Sperry's stats here as accurate:

Paul Sperry

MSM praising China for building hospitals "overnight" while shaming US for not keeping up. But US has most ICU beds/capita of any country @ 20-32/100,000 people. Much higher than China's 2.8-4.6,which is why they had to rush to build more. US also has more than Canada, UK, Sweden

CDC calling this “novel” coronavirus b/c it’s completely new strain of virus in corona family, genetically unique—nobody on planet has ever developed anti-bodies to this particular virus or has immunity to this like they do the flu. Plus, spreads faster & 10X more deadly than flu

BREAKING: Wife of University of Texas prez Greg Fenves tested (+) for COVID-19 after trip to NY, leading Fenves to test himself & close the entire university yesterday. "If you have had close contact with me or my family, we strongly recommend you self-isolate," he said in email
1:27 PM · Mar 14, 2020

Zerohedge has a blog - "No State Is Prepared" - Mapping Where Hospitals Will Run Out Of Beds First If Virus Cases Spike - that contains some self explanatory graphics. It confirms Paul Sperry's contention that the US has by far the most ICU beds of any country in the world. OTOH, the US lags in total hospital beds per capita. The numbers come via an article in USAToday. As you review the data, bear in mind that the same article contends that as many as "23.8 million Americans could be infected. That number is based on an infection rate of 7.4%, similar to the common flu. Some experts say the infection rate could be much higher." More on that below--by way of the Italian example.

Here are the graphics.

First, we have states ranked by the ratio of seriously ill patients for beds available. Note that the lighter the shade of color the better the ratio:

Next we have total number of hospital beds per 1000/population. The US is boxed in red. Japan and Korea are way out in front of the rest of the world:

Finally--and this is where the US shines--we have ICU beds per 100K/population:

Here's the rub. The Italian example demonstrates that there is very little lead time when this thing hits. We will find out within 2-3 weeks just how serious the situation is in the US. Until then, we're only guesstimating based on what has happened in other countries. But here's a chilling warning from Italy that I got via John Hinderaker, who quotes from the London Times:

Giuseppe Natalini, head of intensive care at the Fondazione Poliambulanza hospital in the northern Italian city of Brescia, one of the places hit hardest by the coronavirus, does not mince his words. 
“The situation is catastrophic, unimaginable,” he said. “If someone had told me on February 21 [when the first cluster of cases was diagnosed in Italy] that today we would be in this situation, I would not have believed it. 
“Two or three weeks ago I would have considered the strict measures that have been in place in Italy disproportionate and alarmist. Now, absolutely not.”
Natalini urged Britain and other European countries, feared to be two weeks or so behind Italy, to step up their containment measures before it is too late.

This is what Trump is faced with.

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