How To Fight Covid-19

I found via FR a very info rich powerpoint developed by Michael Lin of Stanford University. What I've done is presented pp. 13-19 below. The whole is longer and, as I said, info rich/dense. You can find it here.

I've edited the pages I've selected, taking out references and some of the calculations. Anyone who thinks I misrepresent things is free to check the original. On the last page re medications, I've simply used the heading. The pages I've selected--the full powerpoint presentation has a total of 37--are the ones that I believe will be most informative for most readers, but if you go to the original you'll find additional information on how Covid-19 kills, etc.

As you'll see, as I've been arguing, Lin believes the US is still early in the process--which gives us hope. OTOH, pandemics like this can develop and get out of control rapidly. You'll see below that Lin crunches the numbers and figures that this may not peak in the US until May - June, but that we need to act by, well, right now. The period March 16 to April 16 will be critical in Lin's estimation. 

That's the bad news, but the good news is that that's what will happen if we do nothing. We're already doing something, and Lin's estimates give us a metric by which to measure--are we doing enough?

Is it possible that Lin is off in his estimates? Yes. Why, then, is this important? Because this is probably very close to the type of presentations President Trump and others are receiving and on which they are basing their policy decisions. If public official's appear to be freaking out--this is why. Trump will have in mind the time frame that Lin outlines in formulating his policies. If Lin and others are right, the worst is well ahead of us, but we can try to mitigate it. Read this, and you'll have some idea why public officials are doing what they're doing from a medical standpoint. You already know why they're doing what they're doing in the stock market.

UPDATED: Covid-19: Can A Quick, Drastic Response Make A Difference?

For those readers and commenters who insist that our Covid-19 response is a senseless panic, consider this nugget--or, these nuggets--that I found in a post at Zerohedge--A 'Made-In-China' Pandemic. Bear in mind how closely tied to the Chinese behemoth both Taiwan and Vietnam are:

Beyond the escalating global health emergency, which has already killed thousands, the pandemic has disrupted normal trade and travel, forced many school closures, roiled the international financial system, and sunk global stock markets. With oil prices plunging, a global recession appears imminent. 

None of this would have happened had China responded quickly to evidence of the deadly new virus by warning the public and implementing containment measures. Indeed, Taiwan and Vietnam have shown the difference a proactive response can make. 

Taiwan, learning from its experience with SARS, instituted preventive measures, including flight inspections, before China’s leaders had even acknowledged the outbreak. Likewise, Vietnam quickly halted flights from China and closed all schools. Both responses recognized the need for transparency, including updates on the number and location of infections and public advisories on how to guard against COVID-19. 

Thanks to their governments’ policies, both Taiwan and Vietnam – which normally receive huge numbers of travelers from China daily – have kept total cases under 50. Neighbors that were slower to implement similar measures, such as Japan and South Korea, have been hit much harder. 

If any other country had triggered such a far-reaching, deadly, and above all preventable crisis, it would now be a global pariah. But China, with its tremendous economic clout, has largely escaped censure. Nonetheless, it will take considerable effort for Xi’s regime to restore its standing at home and abroad.

Compare that to the situation in Italy, reported by AP:

Covid-19: What Can The Data Tell Us?

I present here selected data from a very lengthy analysis: Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19. I got the link from Powerline, but my selection of data is substantially different. If you follow the link and read the entire presentation, you'll see that the author is very much of the view that what's currently going on is an unwarranted panic. At the end he urges readers:

Don’t let them forget it and vote 

These days are precarious as Governors float the idea of martial law for not following “social distancing”, as well as they liked while they violate those same rules on national TV. Remember this tone is for a virus that has impacted 0.004% of our population. Imagine if this was a truly existential threat to our Republic. 

The COVID-19 hysteria is pushing aside our protections as individual citizens and permanently harming our free, tolerant, open civil society. Data is data. Facts are facts. We should be focused on resolving COVID-19 with continued testing, measuring, and be vigilant about protecting those with underlying conditions and the elderly from exposure. We are blessed in one way, there is an election in November. Never forget what happened and vote.

Take that, Trumpkins!

I remain of the view that, based on what was and is known, Trump had no real alternative and ended up acting prudently.

Based on my reading of the data presented, a fair view is that--to anticipate my conclusion--Covid-19 is a very serious matter, but infection is far from an inevitability. Social distancing is warranted, but social isolation--to draw what I hope is a useful distinction--is probably not. That distinction may be useful going forward.

With that, we begin:

Is Vaccine Research Behind A Leak From The Wuhan Lab?

As a followup to Did Covid-19 Come From The Wuhan Lab? I'm presenting a partial transcript (the conclusion) from a Youtube video that explains the lengthy blog Logistical and Technical Exploration into the Origins of the Wuhan Strain of Coronavirus (COVID-19), which formed the basis for that initial post.

I hope what follows will also raise awareness among readers regarding development of "herd immunity" and vaccines. Herd immunity is not inevitable, quick, and certainly not without serious and sometimes catastrophic risks. Vaccine development is not always easy--in the case of viruses it can be not only very difficult but also risky, as you'll see below.

Talk of a Covid-19 vaccine in the near future, or next year, is just that until we actually see it: talk. Michael Osterholm, who is a strong advocate of what might be called a "universal flu vaccine" to replace the highly unreliable current flu vaccines, reminds readers: 'Remember, I'm the guy who in 1980 said an HIV vaccine was unlikely to be developed during my professional lifetime.' Forty years later he's still right: there's no HIV vaccine, despite the vast amounts of money and research resources thrown at it. And that HIV research, as you'll see below, is very relevant to our present concerns.

Before we begin the presentation we should also note that there are a fair number of well known scientific journals that purport to debunk a lab origin for Covid-19. Sadly, we all know that these journals have a track record of deferring to both political correctness as well as to political pressure--especially when it comes from China. Here is a link to a takedown of Nature's claim that Covid-19 didn't come from a lab: China owns Nature magazine’s ass – Debunking “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2” claiming COVID-19 definitely wasn’t from a lab.

Another preliminary. This background on coronaviruses from

A tug-of-war between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and host antiviral defence: lessons from other pathogenic viruses

should make the video transcript (which appears below) conceptually clear and fairly easily understood.

The article assumes that the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is "zoonotic", i.e., that it crossed to humans from another mammal species--a premise that both the first link and the video presentation strongly dispute.

TOTAL MUST READ: What Makes Covid-19 "Novel"?

In other words, What makes Covid-19 different from other coronaviruses, like the one that causes the common cold? What makes Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) much more of a threat than "SARS-classic"? This article from The Atlantic goes into non-technical detail to explain that, and along the way explains why epidemiologists and governments are freaking out over this pandemic.

Below is a significant excerpt, but as usual there's much more. To give you an idea of the very important topics that are covered--beyond these excerpts--Here is brackets are summaries of those topics. As you'll see, they cover many of the questions that have been coming up, and answers are offered.

[For anyone wondering why Covid-19 is less of a threat in certain places than others, mutations--so common for all viruses--offer an explanation. For example, the Singapore version of Covid-19 mutated in a way that made it less virulent--thus the success of Singapore's control efforts in comparison to some other countries.] 

[Want some bad news? Covid-19 appears to attack other organs--in addition to both the upper and lower respiratory systems. For example, many of the Seattle deaths have actually been from heart arrhythmia.] 

[The human immune system fights all this, of course, but as in SARS-classic that can lead to a "cytokine storm," in which the immune system basically ends up working against the body.] 

[Why do some people get really, really sick, while others don't? Age is a factor, but only one of a variety of factors.] 

[Will warm weather blunt the virus? Rather doubtful, based on the evidence so far.]

Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful

We’ve known about SARS-CoV-2 for only three months, but scientists can make some educated guesses about where it came from and why it’s behaving in such an extreme way.

ED YONG

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