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Showing posts with label geopolitics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label geopolitics. Show all posts

Thursday, September 5, 2019

UPDATED: Germany Again--And Brexit?

Not too long ago, in Germania Delenda Est, we talked about the centrality of Germany to Trump's goals and of his determination to break Germany's hold over Europe. This evening sundance has two posts on economic matters, the second of which focuses on Germany: German Industrial Orders Plunge – The Surface Reason is China – The Underneath Reason is Trump. It seems that for all the Establishment's desperate efforts to talk the US economy into a recession, Trump continues on course and winning (sundance's other post offers excellent background to this: President Obama Weaponized Government – Phase Two Was Positioned to Monetize Government).

In the first post sundance points to a the bad news for Germany in a Reuters article--Recession risks rise for Germany as industrial orders plunge:




But then he goes on to ask: Why? And it's not exactly rocket science. Trump has forced China into a currency devaluation, and that has had serious consequences for a major economy like Germany's that's heavily export dependent:

China has: (1) less income; and (2) less value within their own currency. 
Where does this dynamic show up?…. Anytime China is going to buy something. 
China’s currency devaluation makes their exports cheaper; however, at the same time it makes any of their imports more expensive.  As a consequence China buys less… and that now exhibits in lower purchases of German stuff.

Next question, Will this translate into Trump leverage to push Brexit through? I won't pretend to be able to read Trump's mind, but nothing would surprise me less. Mike Pence--remember, the Vice President?--is in London telling everyone that the US is ready, willing, and able to do a trade deal with a post-Brexit UK. I don't believe any of this is happening in a vacuum.

UPDATE: For those who are fascinated by the Brexit "crisis"--or whatever it is--currently gripping UK news, here's a fun article: There will still be an election in the UK, and Brexit will still happen.

Sunday, August 25, 2019

UPDATED: Germania Delenda Est

Yes, for you Latinists, I know the original, re Carthage, runs a bit differently--but this will do.

Everybody's talking about the Trade War with China, but that's only half of the story. Just like WW2, American is engaged in a Two Ocean War. If you listen to the news about how China's economy is tanking under Trump's pressure, you may also hear a second story line: Germany's economy is also struggling to stay above water.

Germany first became a problem for Europe and the world in 1870, although I suppose you could trace it all back to the French Revolution. In a sense you could say that there's been a Great European War ongoing since 1870, and that WW1 and WW2 were simply inflection points. With the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany it looked like the German Empire had finally and definitively won that war--subjugating all of Europe, even Britain, to its iron will and its economic engine. Our post Cold War presidents acquiesced to the state of affairs, and turned the other cheek to German aggression.

Then came Trump.