That has to be the number one thing on Trump's mind these days. My view, my hope, is that Trump is coming to the realization that his policies--and they are his policies, no matter who advised or persuaded him for whatever reasons--have put him in a box with no good alternatives. The Iranian mullahs--possibly assisted by foreign advisers--know that, for the US, war with Iran would be an act of insanity. The only sufficient reason for undertaking such an act would be an act of mass terrorism that dwarfs anything in our past. We've done nothing about past Saudi attacks on the US, so why would we do anything so insane as attacking Iran? The Iranians understand that, and now the rest of the world understands that. Which puts Trump in a box.
While we wait for Trump to sort all this out and, hopefully, find advisers who will prevent future impasses of this sort, here are a few articles/blogs that lay out some of the issues involved.
Pat Buchanan asks, Can Trump Still Avoid War With Iran? and sets forth some of the strategic misunderstandings in Trump's policy of "maximum pressure."
[I]f neither America nor Iran wants war, what has brought us to the brink?
Answer: The policy imposed by Trump, Pompeo and John Bolton after our unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.
Our course was fixed by the policy we chose to pursue.
Imposing on Iran the most severe sanctions ever by one modern nation on another, short of war, the U.S., through "maximum pressure," sought to break the Iranian regime and bend it to America’s will.
Submit to US demands, we told Tehran, or watch your economy crumble and collapse and your people rise up in revolt and overthrow your regime.
...
The demands Pompeo made were those that victorious nations impose upon the defeated or defenseless. Pompeo’s problem: Iran was neither.
...
Hence Tehran’s defiant answer to Pompeo’s 12 demands:
We will not capitulate, and if your sanctions prevent our oil from reaching our traditional buyers, we will prevent the oil of your Sunni allies from getting out of the Persian Gulf.
...
America might emerge victorious in such a war, but the cost could be calamitous, imperiling that fifth of the world’s oil that traverses the Strait of Hormuz, and causing a global recession.
