The Chaos To Come?

Many regulars will know that commenter Ray So-Cal is into lists. Below is his list of expectations from the new regime. Ray presents these strictly as Wild Ass Guesses. See what you think. I've edited only lightly by have added comments in brackets.

As is usually the case, some of these events or developments--if they come to pass--will interact with others. The result may be that political and socio-economic conditions will become more chaotic than previously. IMO, it's hardly surprising that the Left is acting up already--and targeting the Dem establishment this time. Tougher tactics against Antifa/BLM would undoubtedly win widespread public support, but ...

1. Such tactics would drain Dem support from its base of support, and

2. would win little additional support from Middle America.

As a result, any crackdown will be a touch act to pull off--and likely won't happen. 

Further, the pretense of a Biden regime will quickly collapse. It starting out as threadbare, and signs with press interaction are already bad. Biden/Harris may be a front for Obama/Jarrett, but they're not ready for prime time and the fact is that Obama/Jarrett are constitutionally unable to step back in. Neither Pelosi nor Schumer--nor any other Congressional Dems--are up to the task. State Dems? Cuomo won't play outside NY, Pritzker won't play outside Chicago, and Newsom is on the hotseat in CA. Expect a rough ride.

Now, Ray So-Cal:

Perhaps nothing major will get passed in the US House and Senate due to the Thin Majorities, and Biden will keep the Trump Policies in place to keep the economy going.

Nobody really knows what will happen with a Biden Administration on the Economy: Most politicians promise the world to get elected, and do not deliver. My best guess is Biden will follow in what Obama did, since his economic team seems to be mostly former Obama Administration People.

1. Capital will stay cheap with QE 5, as I think it will be - I've lost count.  Quantitative Easing that will flood the economy with Dollars. This will keep property prices high. In CA the high cost of regulatory mreausres will keep the supply of new housing down.

2. We are going back to at best the Obama Era growth rates. The economy may even get worse.

3. Biden’s team will do their best to throttle fracking. This will hurt the economy a lot and increase oil imports. This will make the Middle East important again. 

[Comment: Interestingly, this should be a boon to Russia as it will serve to support prices for Russian oil on the world market. It may also push the US into increased competition for oil with China. However, many will be surprised at where our imported oil actually comes from. If the US in fact ends up seeking a larger share of oil from the Middle East, we could be drawn into new and intensely unpopular wars--which could also expose long terms problems in our military.]

4. Justice Department - These will come back on steroids: Critical Race Theory, Disparate Impact, police consent decrees, school punishments limited by race - restorative justice, doj prosecutions in any police shootings, etc.  End result will be even more of an increase in crime making blue areas even more unattractive. The push for Defunding the Police has already increased crime rates in many large cities in Blue States. Many police officers in larger cities feel they don't have the support of their City Leadership, and are leaving their positions. 

[The University of Chicago--until recently a bit of a holdout against CRT and PC generally among major research universities--is now considering starting up a department devoted strictly to CRT. That's a very bad sign for higher education. The flight of police officers from Blue cities will hit hard. This is another way in which This Time Is Different. Obama was able to skate on these developments in his second term because he wasn't running again. The new Joebama - h/t sundance - regime will not get a pass.]

5. China will again be our best friend and all those economic restrictions Trump put in place will be lifted or watered down. Same with Russia. Chinese Money will return on steroids. This will help property values. Chinese Students in a year will come back. This will lower the cost of some products from China, such as Security Camera Systems. Russia will supply more Natural Gas to Europe via Nord Stream 2. 

6. US Participation in Paris Accords will be back! This will hurt the US Economy due to the increase in energy costs. 

7. Lots of Solandra 2.0 type support for businesses based on politics and virtue signalling.

8. US Deficit will soar.

9. Covid will keep Economy idling worldwide for another 12 months. Tourism will continue to be down world wide. 

10. Blue states will continue lock downs and destroying their economy for another 6 months. Large Blue Cities will hurt economically disproportionately. City Centers will continue to be hurt. Multi Family in these areas will go down. Commercial Real Estate is not coming back due to the rise of telecommuting. Lots of Blue Area Refugees fleeing due to crime, quality of life, and jobs. 

[IMO, many of those City Centers simply aren't going to come back.]

11. People will continue to flee blue states, especially higher earners to states with no income tax, making the revenue even worse for Blue States (CA, NY, etc). 

[The big political fight in DC will likely turn out to be over bailouts for selected Blue states and, especially, metro areas. At the top of the list--yes, likely ahead of CA and NY--may be IL, which by almost any measure is in the worst financial shape of any state.]

12. Increase in illegal and legal immigration that will hurt wages of legal blue collar workers in the US, and the African American Unemployment Rate especially. Those that favor open borders will again be in places they can affect the immigration policy.

13. Huge increase in automation, which will hurt the unemployment rate. The threat of a $23 dollar an hour Federal Minimum Wage will be more of an incentive. Many areas of the US already have a $15 dollar an hour minimum wage. Small businesses will suffer, since larger businesses can afford to pay a higher minimum wage. 

14. Democrats have threatened to take 1031 exchanges away. I don't think they have the votes, but who knows. Last time there was a Democratic President, House, and Senate all that got done was Obamacare. This is a HUGE UNKNOWN with a huge impact on the Real Estate Economy. 

15. Individual health insurance mandate will be back, hurting the lower income demographic.

16. Price of Gasoline will increase, hurting lower income people more.

17. K-12 and Universities will open up in Fall of 2021 in Blue States, including California. Growth in home schooling will continue, even after government schools open up.  

18. Perhaps Democrats will  reverse the 2016 Tax Stuff, and the Property Tax Penalty for Blue States. Biden has threatened higher taxes on incomes from real estate investors above $400K. Probably Increase of the corporate tax rate to pre-Trump levels. Perhaps they will add 3 new states, including DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam. 

[Dems know they may only have two years--at most--to do these things that they would undoubtedly like to do. But these will be difficult, and they may have to focus on things that can be accomplished instead by Executive Orders--with regulations that flow from them.]

19. There will be a focus again on re-regulation, vs the deregulation that the Trump Administration favored.

[Under cover of Covid related Executive Orders, new and intrusive regulations over virtually every aspect of life will expand explosively.]

Inland Empire in California I believe will continue to do well due to warehousing Jobs, until these get automated. The automation that Amazon is doing in their warehouses is incredible.

Los Angeles won't do as well. Especially with the new District Attorney that will result in an increase in crime.  

We may be heading into an inflationary time. No matter what, people need a place to live. Wages have gone up. Lots of money being pumped into the economy. Another view I read on Zerohedge is stagflation.