tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post6862363032838489903..comments2023-10-19T21:48:56.560-05:00Comments on meaning in history: MULTIPLE UPDATES: Is This One Of Unknown's Black Swan Events?mark wauckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-68888173414017092802019-06-19T17:31:54.478-05:002019-06-19T17:31:54.478-05:00The blog has some interesting points, but the titl...The blog has some interesting points, but the title is quite misleading--at no point does it explain HOW Bolton became president, except to quite a Brit who says Trump is "a fool." I don't buy that.<br /><br />Here's an alternative view that I hope is more realistic: <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/james-carafano-iran-trump-1000-troops-middle-east" rel="nofollow">Iran mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-54656741152879812202019-06-19T17:05:45.552-05:002019-06-19T17:05:45.552-05:00How John Bolton Controls The Administration And Do...<a href="https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/how-john-bolton-controls-the-administration.html" rel="nofollow">How John Bolton Controls The Administration And Donald Trump</a>Mike Sylwesterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09987402330015664312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-31393467540400427962019-06-17T20:36:14.518-05:002019-06-17T20:36:14.518-05:00Add my name to those who want some scoring. But d...Add my name to those who want some scoring. But do we want to score, or to win? I'm guessing that securing winnable cases takes time. And Barr's a top-notch professional. <br /><br />I think, and hope, that when some indictments come, they'll come left and right. <br /><br />And remember, we might be losing some battles but we want to win the war.Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-14158749097263165362019-06-17T20:08:23.056-05:002019-06-17T20:08:23.056-05:00I wanted to use Unknown's words if possible, s...I wanted to use Unknown's words if possible, since he was the one who had been pushing this issue.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-1099935349724711382019-06-17T19:51:00.315-05:002019-06-17T19:51:00.315-05:00I take your point. Most of our experiences are as ...I take your point. Most of our experiences are as the turkey, and not the butcher (or farmer) who causes the black swan event for the unsuspecting bird. <br /><br />The butcher is wholly outside the turkey's experience, so the bird's vulnerability to the butcher is an unknown. Turning the unknown into a known--turning a black swan white--is certainly a route to mitigating the event.Forbeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08397667344368400622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-13594631591162728382019-06-17T14:15:53.716-05:002019-06-17T14:15:53.716-05:00Actually, I looked it up before using the term and...Actually, I looked it up before using the term and decided that overall it wasn't so inappropriate<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory<br /><br />"Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-57610326619455089292019-06-17T13:05:12.059-05:002019-06-17T13:05:12.059-05:00I had hesitated to comment earlier, so as not to h...I had hesitated to comment earlier, so as not to hijack the thread, or appear overly pedantic, but the point of the Black Swan phenomena (as articulated by Nasim Taleb's influential 2007 book, "The Black Swan") is that black swan events cannot be predicted or forecast from available evidence, i.e. they are surprises. <br /><br />That someone can address the possibility or potential Forbeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08397667344368400622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-58610375537312491242019-06-17T11:30:15.723-05:002019-06-17T11:30:15.723-05:00Also, my recollection is that Bolton was pushed on...Also, my recollection is that Bolton was pushed on Trump early (by Pence?) but was rejected. Why did he give him another look? Maybe a deal for support on other things. A lot of this, IMO, has to do with Senate GOP.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-77601898685142456962019-06-17T08:46:14.506-05:002019-06-17T08:46:14.506-05:00You're right that at the end of the game what ...You're right that at the end of the game what matters is the score, and that our side hasn't done a lot of scoring. However, in football terms we have been moving the ball and forced the other side to play an ever more exhausted defense. The truth is coming out, willy nilly.<br /><br />I too want some scoring.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-38401980883292923212019-06-17T08:30:17.799-05:002019-06-17T08:30:17.799-05:00I agree with both of you. Barr indeed may be the m...I agree with both of you. Barr indeed may be the man we need. And these things take time. OTOH, when I look at the field, there is no question that the Deep State is and has been running up the score. Not one miscreant, not one leaker, seditionist, FBI agent, etc., has been indicted. The Senate intelligence committee leaker, what did he end up with? A paid vacation to Venice? And how is McCabe Titan 28https://www.blogger.com/profile/09046922743675836512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-78708290096655255242019-06-17T07:28:18.400-05:002019-06-17T07:28:18.400-05:00I remain convinced that Barr has, in fact, saddled...I remain convinced that Barr has, in fact, saddled up. Prosecutions don't happen over night and Barr can't be blamed for prior delays.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-18649707199269566242019-06-17T07:26:31.971-05:002019-06-17T07:26:31.971-05:00I suppose his reasonin was that he could keep cont...I suppose his reasonin was that he could keep control while satisfying the war party in the Senate. Not so eay--a lesson he's learning the hard way. The problem that Trump has always faced is the hurdle of Senate confirmation.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-32660814079243891572019-06-17T07:24:06.225-05:002019-06-17T07:24:06.225-05:00Sure seems that way.Sure seems that way.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-20486522605556091742019-06-16T23:56:23.498-05:002019-06-16T23:56:23.498-05:00"There is almost no limit the guilty won'..."There is almost no limit the guilty won't go to to keep this thing from ever getting to this point of no return."<br /><br />Six ways to Sunday.Cassandernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-50907776034455723902019-06-16T23:26:44.009-05:002019-06-16T23:26:44.009-05:00The Good Guys essentially took the field in March ...The Good Guys essentially took the field in March 2016 when Mike Rogers was informed of the illegal spying on US citizens via weaponized access to the NSA database. That was more than 3 years ago, and the only push-back that occurred is the Comey/McCabe/Strzok firings and several other conspirators forced into early retirement. And one could argue that Wray is no different than Comey.<br /><br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04621133960646283334noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-44278254100481117822019-06-16T22:15:25.418-05:002019-06-16T22:15:25.418-05:00I don't get why Trump hired him. Bolton is bei...<i>I don't get why Trump hired him. Bolton is being Bolton. There's no mystery there.</i><br /><br />I agree with that opinion. <br /><br />I think Trump appointed Bolton mostly because he had seen Bolton on TV many times.Mike Sylwesterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09987402330015664312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-74067485418139645652019-06-16T17:50:31.881-05:002019-06-16T17:50:31.881-05:00Well put.
"the true breadth and depth of the...Well put.<br /><br />"the true breadth and depth of the endless failures of our government to combat Chinese tech and military espionage over the years, while at the same time that same government of ours gave away the farm to them economically?"<br /><br />Don't get me started.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-17558919208521819952019-06-16T17:31:44.743-05:002019-06-16T17:31:44.743-05:00I think it's important never to forget just ho...I think it's important never to forget just how really, really naughty the IC & all the Deep State players have been - especially recently but even well before Trump. What if we were told, as just one example, the true breadth and depth of the endless failures of our government to combat Chinese tech and military espionage over the years, while at the same time that same government of Brad Crawfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12279535300119367177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-48337747922249988392019-06-16T16:58:01.251-05:002019-06-16T16:58:01.251-05:00The one thing that seems clear is that there were ...The one thing that seems clear is that there were no mines involved--not of the usual variety. The claim has been made that "limpet" mines were used--mines that are physically attached to the hull of the vessel. That's a possibility, and it's what the US claims. The ship owner says "flying objects" were involved--drones, rockets? <br /><br />https://www.nbcnews.com/mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-25209517471098040432019-06-16T16:41:17.460-05:002019-06-16T16:41:17.460-05:00The circle I can't square here, regarding the ...The circle I can't square here, regarding the timing of the Gulf incidents, is that if the damage really was caused by mines, isn't this a chronologically random event? Or could someone have placed the mines just ahead of the ships, at just the right time? Any thoughts on this?Brad Crawfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12279535300119367177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-35926260584717816472019-06-16T16:07:01.439-05:002019-06-16T16:07:01.439-05:00I don't think that's the dynamic at all. T...I don't think that's the dynamic at all. Trump publicly expressed irritation that Bolton (and probably Pompeo) were trying to get him into a war in Venezuela--a caper that was clearly a debacle. Then:<br /><br />https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/11/politics/trump-north-korea-kim-jong-un-letter-john-bolton/index.html<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/02/world/middleeast/mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-25431828153719648202019-06-16T15:33:27.523-05:002019-06-16T15:33:27.523-05:00Trump seems comfortable playing the "good cop...Trump seems comfortable playing the "good cop" man of reason in contrast to his "bad cops" Lighthizer, Ross, Bolton, etc.Deplorable Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04720288972263783908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-20859399020117864022019-06-16T15:03:44.345-05:002019-06-16T15:03:44.345-05:00"I guess somebody doesn't like Bolton ......"I guess somebody doesn't like Bolton ..."<br /><br />It is, however, fact that Trump has repeatedly contradicted Bolton in public and distanced himself from Bolton's policies. I'll freely admit--I don't get why Trump hired him. Bolton is being Bolton. There's no mystery there.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-18667603075870059962019-06-16T14:40:36.088-05:002019-06-16T14:40:36.088-05:00This "news" reminds me of the Reagan yea...This "news" reminds me of the Reagan years, with constant "reporting" that Reagan's aids argue and hide info from Reagan.<br />I'm sure this "news" is the typical BS intended to sow discord within the White House. I guess somebody doesn't like Bolton, so squeals to the NYT. I'm pretty sure Trump laughs at this tactic, then sends some tweets.<br />AlsoDeplorable Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04720288972263783908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-70555558562662623752019-06-16T12:33:25.222-05:002019-06-16T12:33:25.222-05:00"He needs to call a staff meeting of his most..."He needs to call a staff meeting of his most trusted lieutenants and kick them into high gear before things get out of hand."<br /><br />I tend to agree. These developments may--or at least in part--represent Deep State recognition that Barr, left to operate as he prefers, is a dire existential threat. Therefore, they need to upset the chess board that Barr will control if left to mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.com