tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post2324930297865964416..comments2023-10-19T21:48:56.560-05:00Comments on meaning in history: A Scott Gottlieb Resourcemark wauckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-23982652261113488402020-04-11T11:52:42.484-05:002020-04-11T11:52:42.484-05:00No, I meant what I wrote, although what I wrote is...No, I meant what I wrote, although what I wrote isn't as clear as I should have made it.<br /><br />In any event, we shouldn't expect infection rates comparable to what we experience as "seasonal flu" simply because COVID is not as virulent as that. What it is is more deadly than flu. By using social distancing we can mitigate the spread (infection rate) and in that way mitigatemark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-13850735858161091552020-04-11T11:07:14.537-05:002020-04-11T11:07:14.537-05:00Perhaps you meant
"It's not that this spr...Perhaps you meant<br />"It's not that this spreads as easily as flu, so don't expect high INCREASES IN infection, if social distancing is REDUCED."aNanyMousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14452492302514671882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-91966058465262749422020-04-11T10:01:18.092-05:002020-04-11T10:01:18.092-05:00Thanks.Thanks.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-86290060276685311882020-04-11T09:31:15.440-05:002020-04-11T09:31:15.440-05:00Similarities in and differences between coronaviru...Similarities in and differences between coronavirus 2019 and flu by Lisa Lockerd Maragakis, M.D., M.P.H., Johns Hopkins Medicine:<br /><br />https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-fluBebenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-40014001989126382252020-04-11T07:43:14.558-05:002020-04-11T07:43:14.558-05:00There are quite a few anecdotal accounts out there...There are quite a few anecdotal accounts out there that describe how hotspots get started. WaPo had one about a funeral and a wedding in Chicago--lots of hugging and closeness over a couple of days. Similar thing in Georgia. Sailer has a link to an account of a hot spot in Germany--started at Carnival time. All similar stuff. It's not that this spreads as easily as flu, so don't expect mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-36938319224270782032020-04-11T01:12:57.711-05:002020-04-11T01:12:57.711-05:00I read Codevilla's article, and I get Mark'...I read Codevilla's article, and I get Mark's point about China shutting down, and I agree with both.<br /><br />Many small businesses, and others, are about to go out of business. Landlords with tenants not paying rents are in bad shape. <br /><br />The problem is nobody knows enough yet to answer basic questions on how to make the US safe enough to re-open. The US can't afford the Ray - SoCalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11293232996007277071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-16975882640145058982020-04-10T22:47:12.156-05:002020-04-10T22:47:12.156-05:00"because they knew this virus is a big proble..."because they knew this virus is a big problem."<br />Possible, but, Commies being Commies, there are always other possibilities, related to "never let a crisis go to waste".<br />Jon Rappaport suspects, that they knew their economy was tanking anyway, so they trotted this virus out, to deflect attn. from their policy failures.<br /><br />And, what if they wanted a Mao-style aNanyMousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14452492302514671882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-33340829255541409542020-04-10T22:32:27.153-05:002020-04-10T22:32:27.153-05:00Questions I have:
1. How is Coronavirus actually ...Questions I have:<br /><br />1. How is Coronavirus actually spread. <br />2. What really works to reduce the spread<br />3. With the stay at home order, what impact is this having in the spreading?<br />4. With the stay at home order, how is it spreading?<br />5. What can we learn from Taiwan?<br />6. What impact weather / temperature on the spread?<br />7. How effective are treatments? Quinine, Ray - SoCalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11293232996007277071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-11840153401941687222020-04-10T22:14:58.736-05:002020-04-10T22:14:58.736-05:00How does Codevilla explain why the Chinese cratere...How does Codevilla explain why the Chinese cratered their economy? Was it all a ploy to allow the Chinese ruling class to get a grip on the the people over there? Oh, wait ...<br /><br />This is all too vague. Check out Ray's ref to Steve Sailer guesstimating 19M infections. That's not far off what Gottlieb's estimate would be. Then if you factor in lethality rates comparable to what mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-27562909383971066342020-04-10T22:07:26.825-05:002020-04-10T22:07:26.825-05:00So, a bit higher than Gottlieb's estimate of 5...So, a bit higher than Gottlieb's estimate of 5%. Still not within a shout of level's required for 'herd' immunity. Also an indication that it's more virulent than SARS-Classic but nothing like as virulent as seasonal flu. However, because of its higher mortality rate, not something you want to become endemic in the country. However, that horse may now be out of the barn.<br />mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-52318277255220987152020-04-10T21:48:48.934-05:002020-04-10T21:48:48.934-05:00More Codevilla, from https://amgreatness.com/2020/...More Codevilla, from https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/07/is-the-president-forgetting-politics-101/ :<br /><br />"… Trump knows, that the number of confirmed cases means nothing, because *most infections do not* result in “cases,” and hence, that the real number for infections is surely higher, possibly by an order of magnitude. Also, the counting of deaths from COVID-19 is being revised aNanyMousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14452492302514671882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-46190755601197902242020-04-10T21:48:07.622-05:002020-04-10T21:48:07.622-05:00For numbers, checking sewage seems the best bet. M...For numbers, checking sewage seems the best bet. MIT did one study, and the Dutch another. This just has to be expanded.<br /><br />Every state seems to have diagnosed cases now. Ray - SoCalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11293232996007277071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-78965983657865616242020-04-10T21:44:44.179-05:002020-04-10T21:44:44.179-05:00https://covidtracking.com is now showing number of...https://covidtracking.com is now showing number of tests for the US! Nice change, as I rework my spreadsheet.<br /><br />US probably has about 19 Million infected, based on taking the amount of deaths and multiplying it by 1,000 by something Steve Sailer figured out. 330 Million US population, so about 6% infected. Ray - SoCalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11293232996007277071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-48009612675731796792020-04-10T21:16:06.486-05:002020-04-10T21:16:06.486-05:00I read somewhere today that about 500 sailors are ...I read somewhere today that about 500 sailors are known to be infected. So 10%--which is not good news. However, that ship is not as good a sample as Codevilla thinks. I'm sure the crew is disproportionately male, and it appears that males are much more susceptible for genetic reasons--very interesting article on that in NYPost today. <br /><br />Also, I don't believe most medical people mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-11073567043155432302020-04-10T21:03:33.574-05:002020-04-10T21:03:33.574-05:00The testing for antibodies in CA should give us a ...The testing for antibodies in CA should give us a working answer. Some folks in CA believe the virus came over here in fall of 2019, and that there is, consequently, herd immunity out there.<br /><br />We shall see.Titan 28https://www.blogger.com/profile/09046922743675836512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-17484718690262076882020-04-10T20:55:27.727-05:002020-04-10T20:55:27.727-05:00Interesting questions from Codevilla, at
https://a...Interesting questions from Codevilla, at<br />https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/02/doctors-doctored-numbers-and-democracy/ :<br /><br />"The most important fact about COVID-19, its true mortality rate, is the number who die of the virus, *divided* by the number infected by it. No algorithms. Simple arithmetic.<br /><br />In short, Fauci, et al., are showing themselves to be typical of our aNanyMousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14452492302514671882noreply@blogger.com