tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post1567500958245270401..comments2023-10-19T21:48:56.560-05:00Comments on meaning in history: Testing, Infection, Mortalitymark wauckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-2675340906311141572020-04-24T07:37:09.490-05:002020-04-24T07:37:09.490-05:00Yes, but I think Hinderaker is drawing the wrong c...Yes, but I think Hinderaker is drawing the wrong conclusions. I don't think it follows from the data that the virus is less DEADLY but that it's not as VIRULENT, i.e., easily transmissible, as thought. Re its deadliness or danger, it does appear that it is primarily a danger to seniors. Problem is that viruses continually mutate, as has this one. Thus in the case of the flu, the 2009 mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-52370290589857885732020-04-24T00:57:14.750-05:002020-04-24T00:57:14.750-05:00PowerLine Blog post that noticed where the Age Gro...PowerLine Blog post that noticed where the Age Group Deaths are:<br />https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the-models-were-wrong-does-anyone-care.phpRay - SoCalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11293232996007277071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-30608502737866880562020-04-23T21:44:46.996-05:002020-04-23T21:44:46.996-05:00More suspects:
https://nationalfile.com/faucis-ni...More suspects:<br /><br />https://nationalfile.com/faucis-niaid-funded-wuhan-lab-scientists-to-research-bat-coronavirus/mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-45761881369854525662020-04-23T21:40:13.584-05:002020-04-23T21:40:13.584-05:00Indeed. I saw somewhere (can’t remember where) tha...Indeed. I saw somewhere (can’t remember where) that he’s cozy with all the usual suspects — Bill Gates, George Soros, Clinton Foundation, etc.Brother Asshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01743538023268812952noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-90144340274368853602020-04-23T20:19:33.789-05:002020-04-23T20:19:33.789-05:00Osterholm is a smart guy, but that's the kind ...Osterholm is a smart guy, but that's the kind of thing I'd like to see an interviewer challenge him on. It seems to me that if the virus is as virulent as Dr. O. claims, then Americans are mobile enough that this should have spread throughout the country far more evenly. I've heard lots of very responsible public health officials--including in hotspots--say: 6ft./10min. To me, that mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-52401834976554327162020-04-23T19:53:47.793-05:002020-04-23T19:53:47.793-05:00In our part of Texas, 80 mi east of Dallas, there ...In our part of Texas, 80 mi east of Dallas, there have been only 4 confirmed cases in our county. The 'one size fits all' policy is economically devastating to the rural communities. There remains confusion and bitterness because the whole population was treated as if it was in one big hot-spot, with all of the inherent restrictions, that were not necessary given our situation. If Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-21064393334223896052020-04-23T19:05:39.979-05:002020-04-23T19:05:39.979-05:00I don't have any use for him.I don't have any use for him.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-91657754409722236652020-04-23T19:04:24.332-05:002020-04-23T19:04:24.332-05:00Thanks for the link--I agree with the sentiments s...Thanks for the link--I agree with the sentiments she expresses.<br /><br />I was just listening to a fairly lengthy interview with Michael Osterholm with Mika and Joe. They tried to get him to trash Trump but, to his credit, he wouldn't take the bait.<br /><br />On the one hand Osterholm says we're in a war, not a battle, that the virus will come back in the fall and will keep coming backmark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-24067032697802075532020-04-23T18:42:07.490-05:002020-04-23T18:42:07.490-05:00Fauci is a weird cat. He seems to be naive in med...Fauci is a weird cat. He seems to be naive in media, but that doesn't jive with his experience, or, at least, doesn't seem to.TDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02764051812502858667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-363959613187744392020-04-23T18:27:38.671-05:002020-04-23T18:27:38.671-05:00A very prominent Russian molecular biologist was q...A very prominent Russian molecular biologist was quoted today saying that the Chinese were doing "crazy" things at the Wuhan lab. He took a bit of a shot at the US for funding the Chinese. We were doing the same types of things and Fauci is the guy who approved the funding for Wuhan. The first time I listened to Michael Osterholm he made a reference to that type of research and how mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-962126240923556232020-04-23T18:27:36.061-05:002020-04-23T18:27:36.061-05:00I think the New Neo sums up it best ...
https://w...I think the New Neo sums up it best ...<br /><br />https://www.thenewneo.com/2020/04/23/im-getting-tired-of-people-playing-fast-and-loose-with-statistics/<br /><br />"Presently the statistics aren’t pointing with any significant clarity to a pattern that can tell us what is best to do in terms of preventing more deaths, although it is clear that there has already been a great deal of TDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02764051812502858667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-37215047324750728872020-04-23T18:17:09.020-05:002020-04-23T18:17:09.020-05:00This is a serious event and I think there was no c...This is a serious event and I think there was no choice but to go as we did. Some states, counties/parishes/municipalities do not have to be so dang jack booted about it, though. I do believe the civil rights issues eminate mostly from Democrat controlled areas, but not all.<br /><br />The issue now, as is happening, is to go on with life, to open up and figure it out on the fly. It's whatTDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02764051812502858667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-40916480289125558302020-04-23T17:07:22.316-05:002020-04-23T17:07:22.316-05:00Sorry, here are those links:
https://www.cdc.gov/...Sorry, here are those links:<br /><br />https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html<br /><br />https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htmmark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-67000778373239534352020-04-23T17:05:18.938-05:002020-04-23T17:05:18.938-05:00"From that data they conclude ..."
Actu..."From that data they conclude ..."<br /><br />Actually, no. Here are two sites that explain the methods used to arrive at the estimates. The methods are based on many years of medical and epidemiological experience in dealing with flu-like illnesses and were not intended to be used in comparisons with other viral diseases. Obviously they lack that amount of experience with the 'mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-61836125020391860122020-04-23T16:45:06.789-05:002020-04-23T16:45:06.789-05:00By the same token, if you take the Covid19 mortali...By the same token, if you take the Covid19 mortality rate for NYC alone and for people of a certain age and certain comorbidities I think the mortality rate would be astronomical. Much higher than the averaged out mortality rate that brookwood used. <br /><br />Anyway, brookwood was using official numbers. Feel free to suggest alternative numbers. mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-23578007368646942562020-04-23T16:39:51.453-05:002020-04-23T16:39:51.453-05:00Sounds pretty much like our life right now. It may...Sounds pretty much like our life right now. It may be changing a bit very soon.mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-12215972287003015362020-04-23T16:38:20.848-05:002020-04-23T16:38:20.848-05:00Absolutely not. And in my bucolic suburban area, v...Absolutely not. And in my bucolic suburban area, virtually all of the deaths are of people 80+ and a heavy percentage of those in nursing/assisted living facilities. I believe it was Titan 28 who suggested that most of the infection in such places comes from the workers. I wouldn't be surprised, although obviously visitors would be another source.<br /><br />As a practical matter, without mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-46982676830372439612020-04-23T16:09:17.820-05:002020-04-23T16:09:17.820-05:00Mark -- Just because some studies show a 0.1% mort...Mark -- Just because some studies show a 0.1% mortality rate for the seasonal flu, how do we know the rate for seasonal flu can't be higher, including possibly multiples higher, in certain circumstances (age, population, underlying condition and co-morbidities, nature and conditions of transmission, hospital conditions and care, quality of treatment, time of year, etc.)<br /><br />I'm notCassanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11255275730299959627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-63215076798150285992020-04-23T16:06:06.369-05:002020-04-23T16:06:06.369-05:00No one anywhere near us lives in the kind of beehi...No one anywhere near us lives in the kind of beehives/rabbit warrens that New York City people - rich and poor - live in. There are apartments here, but most are not high rise. They are not jammed with people. They have windows that open. And our climate year round is conducive to opening windows. <br /><br />Most of us do not need public transportation. I believe that is a huge plus any Bebenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-91696445075121477762020-04-23T15:54:45.242-05:002020-04-23T15:54:45.242-05:00From what I have seen of 7 different Nursing / Ass...From what I have seen of 7 different Nursing / Assisted Living Homes in California - They just are not set up to prevent CoronaVirus Infections. <br /><br />I wonder what changes would be required to make them safer.Ray - SoCalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11293232996007277071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-59841167724523195332020-04-23T15:51:10.980-05:002020-04-23T15:51:10.980-05:00I would like to point something out. Flu fatality ...I would like to point something out. Flu fatality rates in the US are based on what I would consider loose estimates and assumptions. In the 2017-2018 season roughly 1,000,000 tests resulted in 200,000 positives. From that data they conclude that 36,000,000 people had the flu. here is a link https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2017-2018/Week13.htm . If we apply the same statistical Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-15185398221060002812020-04-23T14:39:31.020-05:002020-04-23T14:39:31.020-05:00Roughly 20% of the dead were in nursing homes. How...Roughly 20% of the dead were in nursing homes. However, in NYC the numbers were greatly exaccerbated by Cuomo's dumb policies. Overall, probably upper 40s% are > 70.<br /><br />In my area there are special shopping times in the early morning for seniors--so they can go in less of a crowd and masked up. Not so hard.<br /><br />Overall, I agree with what you're suggesting based on what mark wauckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08247066866195200890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608697421187043479.post-54959214023988420752020-04-23T14:10:54.117-05:002020-04-23T14:10:54.117-05:00The demographics of the dead verses the asymptomat...The demographics of the dead verses the asymptomatic?<br />Fact<br />The dead are old and feeble. What percent in nursing homes.<br /><br />I assume the asymptomatic are younger. Let's see the demographics.<br /><br />If<br />A. u remove the older / informed from the denominator.<br />B. we devlope preventive and treatments.<br />C . Common sense distance.<br />D. STRIKE TEAMS FOR HOT SPOTSIceeaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06054061704229693753noreply@blogger.com