Proof GOPers Are Best Informed Sector Of Population

The proof was published, remarkably enough, in the NYT. Of course, the NYT had to try to disguise the truth, namely, that by a significant margin Dems are the lowest information group of three: Dems, GOPers, and Indies.

Here's how the NYT frames the story:

To many liberals, Covid has become another example of the modern Republican Party’s hostility to facts and evidence. And that charge certainly has some truth to it. Yet the particular story with Covid is also more complicated — because conservatives aren’t the only ones misinterpreting scientific evidence in systematic ways. Americans on the left half of the political spectrum are doing it, too.

That’s a central finding from a survey of 35,000 Americans by Gallup and Franklin Templeton. It finds that both liberals and conservatives suffer from misperceptions about the pandemic — in opposite directions. “Republicans consistently underestimate risks, while Democrats consistently overestimate them,” Jonathan Rothwell, Gallup’s principal economist, and Sonal Desai, a Franklin Templeton executive, write.

"Some truth." Of course, the question is really: How much truth in it? Here's the actual question that Gallup and Templeton posed to 35K people:

What are the chances that someone with Covid must be hospitalized?

Ask yourself this: What are the chances that any significant portion of the populace will know the correct answer to that question? And what are the chances that one demographic sector--identified by their politics--will be overwhelmingly more likely to hit upon the right answer? Here's the breakdown:

What the NYT wants you to take away from that chart is this: Dems are likely to overestimate the Covid threat, but GOPers are likely to underestimate the Covid threat--thus, there is "some truth" to the notion that GOPers as a group are "certainly ... hostil[e] to facts and evidence." (Note: I rearranged the words slightly and added emphasis.)

Here's my take.

All three groups are prone to significantly overestimate the seriousness of the Covid threat--which is certainly to be expected given the more than a year long drumbeat of hype. However, a quick glance at the numbers shows that, even so, even allowing for the hype, GOPers were far less likely to harbor the extreme overestimate of the risk. This is true for any given category, but especially if we add the two most extreme categories of overestimation--here the higher the number the worse the result:

D-69, 

R-51, 

I-60.

Moreover, if we ask the more important question--the question that is not asked--the results are quite striking. Here is that question: Is there one of the three groups that was significantly more likely to have a spot on estimate of the risk? The answer is: Yes--GOPers, and by a significant margin. Here, the higher the number the better the result:

D-10

R-26

I-20

The results are even more striking if we pool the three categories that are closest to correct. I would argue that this procedure identifies which group is most resistant to hype, and therefore is most likely to be informed and open to facts and evidence. Check it out--and, once again, in this category the higher number is better:

D-26

R-45

I-36

Any way you slice this, GOPers are far more likely to have a correct or close to correct estimate of the Covid risk and much less likely to overestimate the risk. In fact, nearly half of GOPers were at least in the ballpark, and a solid quarter were spot on. On the other hand, very few Dems even had a clue and--of the three groups--Dems were far and away more likely to run with the hype, overestimating the risk.

It's really very striking:

Jordan Davis at The Federalist also notes that the entire country was subjected to hype and disinformation--which makes the results so noteworthy in illustrating how much more in touch with reality GOPers are:

Corporate media was quick to pick up the panic narrative about COVID-19, condemning Republican governors for refusing to lock down, despite the scientific data suggesting that prolonged lockdowns would take a large metal and physical toll on people. Journalists also often misconstrued scientific data to fit a fearmongering narrative and employed the censorship efforts of eager Big Tech companies to obscure scientific studies and testimonies about the effects and potential treatment of the virus.

Be proud, GOPers!